Channeling TIA: Get Ready for Another Stolen Election

Will the GOP steal the election again?
Can there be any doubt?
It will be on an unprecedented scale never seen before.

The polls showing the Democrats winning Congress assume no fraud.
The Dems are still drinking the DLC kool-aid.

Notice how confident Bush and Cheney are that they will retain the House and Senate. They fear Democratic investigations into 9/11, Iraq, torture, warrantless spying, the outing of Valerie Plame, etc....

They have the means.
The Diebold machines/software are ready.
They've stolen the last three elections.
It's the only way they can win.

Here is the trend in Generic House of Representative Congressional polls over the past 12 months:


The source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

As you can see from the chart, the Democrats have held a 10.4% average lead in the polls. They've won ALL 93 polls, except for a TIE in the Sept.17 Gallup. Their lead has been increasing over the past year. The Democratic trendline has a slightly positive slope while the Republican trendline is flat.

The steady Democratic lead cannot be just a series of random events. Based on the lead, the probability of winning the House is overwhelming. But the lead is not realistic. In every election, about 3% of the (mostly Democratic) votes are never counted due to spoiled and lost ballots. Figure a 1.5% net loss for the Democrats. And the new Voter ID requirement will result in the disenfranchisement of millions.

The remaining difference can only be overcome by the GOP through outright fraud using DRE and central tabulator vote switching. Keeping the House would require Diebolding 20-50 elections.

Based on the average 10.4% Democratic lead and a 3.16% MoE, the CONSERVATIVE probability that the GOP will win a majority of the Generic vote by chance alone is 1 in 14 BILLION. The probability is actually even lower since the 3.16% MoE assumes a single 1000-sample poll.

So why the hell even do we even bother to track the polls?

____________________________________________________

Probability Matrix of Republican majority
(before reduction in Democratic lead due to spoiled/lost votes, etc.)
____________________________________________________


The 3-poll MoE is 1.83% (3000 sample-size).
The 10-poll MoE is 1.0% (10,000 sample-size).
-------
Polls 1 3 5 10
Sample 1,000 3,000 5,000 10,000
MoE 3.16% 1.83% 1.41% 1.00%

Poll
Diff

10% 2.9E-10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9% 1.2E-08 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8% 3.6E-07 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7% 7.2E-06 2.9E-14 0.00% 0.00%
6% 1.0E-04 6.0E-11 0.00% 0.00%
5% 9.7E-04 4.0E-08 2.1E-12 0.00%
4% 6.6E-03 8.8E-06 1.5E-08 2.2E-15
3% 3.1E-02 6.4E-04 1.6E-05 2.1E-09
2% 10.76% 1.59% 0.28% 4.4E-05
1% 26.77% 14.15% 8.29% 2.50%
0% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%

__________________________________________________________________

The probabilities in the table are based on the 3-poll moving average.
The MoE used in the calculation is 3.16% (based on one poll).
If the 1.83% MoE (based on three polls) are used,
the probabilities approach ZERO (1/infinity).
____________________________________________________

93-Poll Average:
Dem 48.6%
Rep 38.2%
____________________________________________________

Democratic average poll based on type:
RV 48.8% (registered voters)
LV 47.2% (likely voters)
____________________________________________________

Probability of a Republican majority, based on the
average 10.4% Democratic lead in the 93 polls:
Prob = 6.9E-11 (1 in 14 billion).
____________________________________________________

Dem3ma: Democratic 3-poll moving average
Rep3ma: Republican 3-poll moving average
Diff: Dem3ma-Rep3ma
__________________________________________________________________

Survey Dates REP DEM Other Diff Rep3ma Dem3ma Diff
Average All 38.2 48.6 13.2 10.4 38.2 48.6 10.4

2005
----
Newsweek RV. 905 38 50 12 12 39.0 51.0 12.0
Pew RV...... 911 40 52 8 12 39.0 50.0 11.0
DemCorp LV.. 921 39 48 13 9 40.3 49.0 8.7
Newsweek RV. 930 42 47 11 5 40.7 47.0 6.3
----
DemCorp LV.. 1010 41 46 14 5 41.3 46.7 5.3
GWU LV...... 1012 41 47 13 6 37.7 44.3 6.7
Hotline RV.. 1016 31 40 29 9 37.0 45.0 8.0
DemCorp LV.. 1023 39 48 12 9 37.7 46.0 8.3
Gallup RV... 1023 43 50 7 7 39.7 50.0 10.3
----
ABC/WP RV... 1102 37 52 12 15 40.0 50.0 10.0
DemCorp LV.. 1106 40 48 12 8 37.7 51.0 13.3
Newsweek RV. 1105 36 53 11 17 37.0 47.3 10.3
Hotline RV.. 1115 35 41 24 6 37.3 47.3 10.0
DemCorp LV.. 1120 41 48 11 7 37.3 45.7 8.3
----
Time RV.... 1201 36 48 15 12 38.7 48.3 9.7
DemCorp LV.. 1204 39 49 12 10 36.0 46.3 10.3
CBS/NYT RV. 1206 33 42 25 9 37.7 46.7 9.0
DemCorp LV.. 1212 41 49 9 8 35.7 44.7 9.0
Hotline RV.. 1213 33 43 25 10 37.0 45.7 8.7
NPR LV..... 1218 37 45 17 8 37.0 46.3 9.3
ABC/WP RV... 1218 41 51 9 10 40.3 48.3 8.0
----
2006
----
Gallup RV... 108 43 49 8 6 39.3 47.7 8.3
CBS/NYT RV. 125 34 43 23 9 39.3 47.0 7.7
DemCorp LV.. 125 41 49 10 8 37.7 48.7 11.0
ABC/WP RV... 126 38 54 9 16 40.0 51.0 11.0
----
Pew RV...... 205 41 50 9 9 40.7 51.3 10.7
Gallup RV... 212 43 50 8 7 41.7 48.7 7.0
GWU LV...... 215 41 46 14 5 38.3 47.3 9.0
Hotline RV.. 219 31 46 23 15 37.3 46.7 9.3
DemCorp LV.. 227 40 48 12 8 36.7 49.0 12.3
----
Gallup RV... 301 39 53 7 14 37.7 49.7 12.0
FOX LV..... 301 34 48 18 14 37.3 52.0 14.7
Gallup RV... 312 39 55 7 16 36.7 51.7 15.0
NPR LV..... 314 37 52 11 15 38.3 52.3 14.0
Newsweek RV. 317 39 50 11 11 39.0 50.7 11.7
Time RV.... 323 41 50 9 9 38.0 48.0 10.0
----
CBS RV......... 409 34 44 22 10 38.3 49.7 11.3
ABC/WP RV... 409 40 55 5 15 38.7 50.3 11.7
Gallup RV... 409 42 52 6 10 41.0 52.7 11.7
Pew RV...... 416 41 51 8 10 41.0 51.0 10.0
CNN RV ..... 423 40 50 9 10 37.7 48.3 10.7
Cook.......... 430 32 44 24 12 37.0 49.3 12.3
Gallup RV... 430 39 54 7 15 36.3 46.3 10.0
----
FOX LV..... 503 38 41 21 3 38.3 49.0 10.7
CNN RV ..... 507 38 52 10 14 36.3 45.7 9.3
CBS/NYT RV. 508 33 44 23 11 36.7 48.7 12.0
Newsweek RV. 512 39 50 11 11 37.3 48.7 11.3
ABC/WP RV... 515 40 52 9 12 38.3 47.0 8.7
Fabrizio LV. 517 36 39 25 3 37.3 44.3 7.0
Hotline RV.. 521 36 42 22 6 38.0 44.0 6.0
----
Gallup RV... 604 42 51 7 9 39.0 48.0 9.0
Gallup RV... 611 39 51 10 12 38.0 49.3 11.3
FOX LV..... 614 33 46 20 13 36.7 47.3 10.7
CNN RV ..... 615 38 45 16 7 36.7 47.3 10.7
Pew RV...... 619 39 51 10 12 37.7 45.7 8.0
Hotline RV.. 625 36 41 24 5 38.0 48.0 10.0
ABC/WP RV... 625 39 52 9 13 37.7 49.0 11.3
Gallup RV... 625 38 54 7 16 37.3 51.0 13.7
TIME LV.... 629 35 47 18 12 38.0 50.7 12.7
----
Gallup RV... 709 41 51 9 10 38.7 49.7 11.0
AP-Ipsos RV. 712 40 51 9 11 38.3 48.0 9.7
FOX LV..... 712 34 42 25 8 35.3 47.0 11.7
Hotline RV.. 723 32 48 20 16 33.7 45.0 11.3
CBS/NYT RV. 725 35 45 20 10 35.7 48.0 12.3
Gallup RV... 770 40 51 8 11 38.3 49.7 11.3
----
CNN RV ..... 803 40 53 7 13 39.7 52.0 12.3
ABC/WP RV... 806 39 52 8 13 38.7 53.3 14.7
AP-Ipsos RV. 809 37 55 8 18 35.3 51.7 16.3
FOX LV..... 809 30 48 22 18 36.0 51.0 15.0
Gallup RV... 810 41 50 9 9 36.7 49.7 13.0
Newsweek RV. 811 39 51 10 12 40.3 50.3 10.0
Pew RV...... 813 41 50 9 9 37.7 47.0 9.3
Hotline RV.. 820 33 40 27 7 39.7 45.7 6.0
Gallup RV... 820 45 47 7 2 40.3 46.3 6.0
CNN RV ..... 820 43 52 6 9 40.0 48.7 8.7
CBS/NYT RV. 821 32 47 21 15 38.3 50.0 11.7
TIME LV.... 824 40 51 9 11 36.7 49.3 12.7
Newsweek RV. 825 38 50 12 12 36.7 49.7 13.0
FOX LV..... 830 32 48 21 16 37.7 50.3 12.7
----
CNN LV ..... 902 43 53 4 10 39.0 50.3 11.3
ABC RV....... 907 42 50 9 8 41.3 51.0 9.7
Pew RV...... 910 39 50 11 11 40.7 51.0 10.3
Gallup RV... 910 41 53 7 12 39.3 48.0 8.7
FOX LV..... 913 38 41 21 3 42.3 47.3 5.0
Gallup LV.. 917 48 48 4 0 40.3 46.3 6.0
CBS/NYT RV. 919 35 50 15 15 41.7 51.0 9.3
CNN LV ..... 924 42 55 3 13 38.3 51.3 13.0
FOX LV..... 927 38 49 14 11 37.7 49.0 11.3
Hotline RV.. 927 33 43 24 10 34.7 44.7 10.0
Zogby LV....... 928 33 42 25 9 36.0 46.0 10.0
----
CNN LV ..... 1002 42 53 5 11 38.5 49.3 10.8
AP-Ipsos RV. 1004 38 51 11 13 40.3 51.7 11.3
Pew RV...... 1004 41 51 8 10 39.5 51.0 11.5

there has to be a 2 digit lead in the exit polls for a Dem to "win"...

That means at least 55 to 45.

Otherwise, it's close enough for an electronic "steal".

10 points can't be explained away. People would (finally) take to the streets (I hope!!).

Remember exit polls were always correct. Absolutely right every time..

OMG They were wrong in 2000..

Oh well no fraud, just bad exit polls.

Just have to stop using them..

I did hear on the news that each side has lawyers ready to fight. New Jersey looks VERY close.

so far I hear crickets

candidates!

http://www.verifythevote.org/candidates.html

:kick:

:kick:

I could not imagine Bushco winning approval by a figure any higher than the low twenties AT MOST. So when I read, "Bush approval at 30 odd, "in your dreams" comes to mind. Perception is their sole weapon, but what a weapon it is!

They tout as truth whatever falsehood they wish to propagate, and the crucial thing to understand, imo, is that IT, ALONE, (backed, of course, by the perjured corporate media), EMBOLDENS them, as the despots, oligarchs, kleptocrats, etc, that they are, to carry on with such a total contempt for everyone else, that it is truly feudal.

health?

:kick::thumbsup:

in the Senate and how important it is, as Dean has mentioned, that we have Democrats in Governor and
Secretary of State positions. We might as well forget Ohio since they already have
their vote fraud scheme in place.

Luckily, most of the "swing" races are in states with Democratic governors. If I were
Dean, I'd be calling an emergency meeting with them to discuss ways to monitor and
prevent fraud.

Tennesee - Democratic Governor - Bredesen
Virginia - Democratic Governor - Kaine
Montana - Democratic Governor - Sweitzer
RI - Republican Governor - Carcieri
Pennsylvania - Democratic Governor - Rendell
Minnesota - Republican Governor Ehrlich
Washington - Democratic Governor Gregoire
Michigan - Democratic Governor Granholm

their loss on fraudulent machines? As another DUer noted, there suddenly seems to be a lot of attention on previous fraud during elections. :shrug:

Edit to add this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2333539&mesg_id=2333829

for a great come from behind mandate victory in November

Probably most of them are DONE with *² and Cheney.. they have carried the water long enough..

The important election is "08..

the powers that be might just not care if the dmes win back congress in '06.

things are in such a HUGE mess, that there's no way on earth to turn things around..:² has not vetoed much, but without an "overturn" number, he will vetor everything he can to prevent and real change, and after 2 years of stalemate, the repervicans can once again complain that the democrats "have not led" and "could not get the country's business done"..

at this point in time, they may relish the thought of not being fully in control.. they always need to appear to be the underdog..

the "important" stuff is done already..

war in two countries
2 right wingers on the SCOTUS
treasury empty
debt piled up as high as the sky
constitution shredded

if the congress goes "D", there's not enough time to un-do what's already been done, and we all know that the minute that happens, the press will once again turn on dems and start to pillory them for not being able to do what they said they would/could..

Not that it wouldn't feel good to win in November and I will do everything I can to make it happen - the outcomes of winning control are not as rosy as we thought they might be.

Hearings - Sure, we can have them, bring out more dirt. I'd be the first to start popping popcorn. But, there is so much dirt now, if you don't believe the guys are crooked you never will. Also, unfortunately,we won't have enough votes to seek impeachment or censure. Unless the hearings implicate incumbant congressmen, it will be too late in the term for the general public to give two shits about Asshat - he will be on his way out - Thank God.

Our Legislative Agenda - Sure we can bring the good bills up - but we have our little group of DINOS to probably f much of it up. And miraculously B* will start thinking vetoes are the way to go.

Good side:

A longshot that we could stop Asshat from invading Cuba or Iran

A longshot that if needed, we could stop an Asshat SC candidate.

this doesn't pass the smell test...

Besides, Congress is not elected on a generic vote.

"Who would you rather have in control of Congress?" As most people know, that number is always quite different from what ends up in Congress. People tend to like their local rep, but dislike the rest of Congress.

bushco* knows that if the ball is allowed to start rolling--investigations, special committees, subpoenas--it will snowball out of control. Even the Vichy Democrats won't be able to mitigate the damage. They'll actually be forced to declare their loyalties for all to see. No one will be able to hide behind the "we were mislead" red herring. And everything bushco* has touched has the taint of illegality, from low crimes and misdemeanors to high crimes and treason. Not to mention charges of war crimes on an International scale. Make no mistake, bushco* is a crazed, trapped animal concerned now only with survival. And it's survival is contingent on remaining in power. They'll commit terrorist acts. They'll start wars. They will do the unthinkable to protect their plunder and keep themselves in power and out of prison. Anything.

Some suggestions on combatting election fraud would be nice, instead of an unequivocal "they'll steal the election".

Fear

Uncertainty

Doubt

why else would you ask for suggestions on combating election fraud?

But before election fraud can be tackled, there needs to be more awareness that it is a major problem. I think that is the purpose of the OP: to raise awareness.

K&R

...there are enough models out there, this being the foremost in terms of effectiveness, to assure that questions will be raised and heard on major concerns of fraud all over the country. This does not mean universal coverage. I'm talking about a bunch of motivated, bright people in key locations or providing resources and assistance to locations in order to catch anything right away.

Count your change! Trust but verify! Look both ways before you cross!

We're not going to take it.

A key tenant of polling: polls only reflect of public opinion at the time they are taken. To make a blanket statement that large leads in previous polls in early October and through the year mean an x-1 chance of Democratic victory is silly.

Polls CAN show trends. The trend right now is in the Democrats favor. Events in the next month could change the results in either direction.

Polls were showing Jesse Ventura losing throughout the year in 1998. So I'm sure the chances of his winning at this time (OCT 98) according to this methodology were 1 in a billion. But the trend lines were there showing him picking up steam from single digits to the mid 20s near the end. He peaked on election day. I think the Republicans have peaked this year and baring some unforeseen events that effect public opinion (yes, numbers are not static) the Democratic Party will make health gains across the board.

Besides, If we lose yet another election, we can always hang out all day here on DU and complain about it.

Why bother campaigning or anything when we can just adopt this defeatist attitude.

:eyes:

:kick: :kick: :kick:

Keep Kicked till election day

kick

:-(

the actual race a person is voting in are directly related.

The phenomenom of hating Congress but loving your congressman is very well documented.

Also Democrats seem to always have an overstated advantage in the generic ballot.

The GOP only led in 4 of the generic ballot races conducted in the final month of the 2004 campaign:

RCP Final Pre-Election Avg 10/27 - 11/1 45.4% 45.4% TIE
GW/Battleground 10/31-11/1 47% 44% R + 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31 46% 47% D + 1%
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 43% 44% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/31 42% 48% D +6%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29 - 10/31 46% 48% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 49% 44% R + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/26 - 10/28 45% 48% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 44% 45% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/27 43% 44% D + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/24 - 10/25 42% 51% D + 9%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/22 - 10/24 50% 47% R + 3%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 47% 46% R + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/20 - 10/21 44% 49% D + 5%
GW-Battleground 10/18 - 10/21 43% 46% D + 3%
AP-Ipsos 10/18 - 10/20 46% 47% D + 1%
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 39% 45% D + 6%
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/16 42% 44% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/14 - 10/15 43% 46% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/11 - 10/14 40% 44% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/7 - 10/9 42% 44% D + 2%
GW-Battleground 10/4 - 10/7 42% 43% D + 1%
AP/Ipsos 10/4 - 10/6 44% 48% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/3 - 10/5 41% 46% D + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/3 - 10/5 45% 49% D + 4%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

While the Democratic advantage is greater this year, it does not mean an automatic victory to me.

But, hey! Who needs facts when you can throw a bunch of numbers together and call that proof?