Rank which GOP Senate Seats are most likely to change hands

in order of liklihood:

1) Pennsylvania--Santorum has been behind (usually) by double digits for over a year. People have made up their mind and only a huge swing could save Ricky at this point.

2) Montana--Conrad Burns vs. Jon Tester. Montana has a popular Democratic governor who is also on the ballot. Burns has stuck his foot in his mouth once too often and is tainted by corruption.

3) Ohio--The GOP Republican party is in disaray and most polls show the Democratic candidate for governor with a huge lead and it's likely the democratic tide will sink DeWine.

4) Rhode Island--Chafee is liked, but this is an overwhelmingly Democratic state and Whitehouse's arguement that it's better to have somebody in the senate who doesn't vote to put the GOP in leadership positions is resonating especially after the the Foley mess.

5) Tennessee--I've upgraded this race. The GOP nominee (corker) has had nothing but bad press for a month and Harold Ford, Jr. is a strong and charismatic candidate and most polls now show him leading.

6) Missouri--this is a tight race, some polls have it neck and neck. Others have McCaskill slightly ahead or Talent slightly ahead. This will come down to who gets their people out on election day. If it's a true "wave election" then the democrat should win.

7) Virginia--I had high hopes for this race, and Webb can still win this thing, but I've downgraded it (moved TN from 7th to 5th)because after all the trouble Allen has had and most polls still show him with a lead of five to eight points.

If anything I would MAYBE - JUST MAYBE - flip Rhode Island with Tennessee

In a really good way.

They have to assume they can predict just who is going to vote - they can't do it.

We will carry even Virginia. And I think we are going to carry some races we don't even know about, too - in the house.

I'll predict something else, too - by November the 8th, you will not find too many people who would even admit they voted for B*sh in 2004- selective memory loss, I call it.

I am pretty sure about this.

Joe