Why is Rove saying the GOP will keep the House and Senate?

I have to admit, hearing Rove today on Olbermann talking about "The Math" unnerved me a little. I've spent the season trying not to get my hopes up since 2004 seemed more of a downer to me because I was sure we would win.

So, what do you think?

And Alckmin is STILL saying he's going to win.

They all do, don't they?

No one will ever say their party is going to lose, it would just suppress their base.

..they could lose even more of their base. They're doing it for morale.

He may be able to say "fuck you" to us once again.

republican poll denial.

Unfortunately, Rove's team does.

"I'm a pudgy, scuzzy, little criminal slimeball, and the party I work for is bereft of any ideas, vision or commitment to doing anything for this nation other than getting rich off of it while we allow poor people to die in Iraq and New Orleans"?

If he ever told the truth, that's what he'd say. Don't hold your breath expecting him to ever say it, though.

He wants to keep his job. If the GOP loses big so does Karl.

Also, he probably really believes it. He has such an overblown opinion of himself and the GOP. He thinks everyone will fall into line at the last minute. Hasn't happened yet, but there are thousands of minutes to go until 11/7.

Mz Pip
:dem:

It can be devestating to an election when there is a feeling the other side is simply going to win, and that's all. He will fail, though.

a big Democratic wave, with the House definitely flipping and between a 4-6 pickup in the Senate.

I personally don't believe Rove's polls are better than Cook's.

say, "I'll probably lose", do you? Would Rove ever say he's a loser? We know he is in many ways, but he would never admit to that of which he is well aware.

And so is his boss's.

They are arrogant about a lot of things including their ties to Diebold but they like to play to the whole idea of a representative democracy.

So in order to do that they only steal the races that are close.

They have a big fat motivated machine to get the Repukes and Fundies to the polling places so they can get the races close enough to steal. We have to be sure to win by fairly big margins and get our people to the polls. Or we won't get the Senate or worse...

his ass is out this time. Repugs are gonna get whipped. It's all about Iraq now and he can't change a goddamn thing about that.

in 2000 and wasted a good deal of money trying to produce a win there.

Notice that, in the Countdown segment, Rove only mentioned winning in Tennessee and Virginia. I could predict that, and I don't look at "68 polls a week." Tennessee is a dead heat and Virginia is leaning slightly Republican. If he mentioned PA, OH, MT, RI, or MO, I didn't hear it.

Rove realizes that perception is as important as reality; what he is trying to do is make anything less than a Dem takeover in the Senate look like a victory for the Republicans. How losing four or five seats is a GOP victory is a mystery to me, but that's perception for you. When we lost three seats in 2004, Rove and Co. called it a mandate.

And they just win win win especially in the e voting states...well,
I won't be at work the next day...I'll be busy.

legal. But they didn't. They were ambiguous. And his hopes fell flat. Everyone knew this decision was coming. I EVEN POSTED THREADS ABOUT IT two weeks ago warning people that this was his hopeful plan. But it's over now. It's getting no media coverage. Gays won a victory, an ambiguous victory, albeit, and Rove lost an election.

Tough luck, Karl.

and arrogant man. But they all are.

He learned it in a "No Child Left Behind" class.

:)

A result of gerrymandering, couple of points of theft in key races, knocking key demographics off the voter rolls. They probably have highly detailed election models that take into account all of the above, allowing them to optimally distribute resources. What do you think the 72 hour effort is all about.

On Hartmann a month or so ago he mentioned that Dems have to capture 60% of the house vote (based on modeling) just to break even due to gerrymandering (those 80% Dem districts leave a lot of GOP votes to be spread around strategically). The modeling and gerrymandering are just a couple of the structural advantages they have as an organized crime syndicate over the Dems who are a true democratic political coalition.

Even if he is right, at best they hold the Senate by, say 3 seats (which includes the Lieberman defection) and the House by a couple.

Ok, great. Now where do they go? My prediction, holding onto both houses in this election will spell the end of the Republican party. Hell, things have went south for them faster than I ever though it could, particularly considering the economy is still treading water.

Consider the fate of the party in power for the last 12 plus years with no one to blame (ie democratic Congress) for:

1) The coming deep recession/depression. Seen the housing numbers this week? Think China is willing to continue to loan us money so we can all keep selling each other real estate for a living?

2) Peak oil/energy. The oil prices can only be depressed for so long until the growing imbalance between supply and demand begins to start rapidly pushing prices up. How happy will people be with the party of big oil when gas hits $4/gal to stay?

3) The last election there was probably, say, 53% of the electorate disenfranchised. This election, even if the GOP retains power, there will be 60%+/- of the voters disenfranchised. And this time, the sense of being wronged will be high. Think that 60% is really going to go running back to the party that they feel stole the election from them. Remember, a brand that has lost a ‘consumer’ due to a poor experience has probably lost that customer for life.

4) IraqNam.

5) And, the big one, being forced to authorize a draft. With all of the Chimps saber rattling, it is even odds that he will accidentally run into something. Imagine a Democratic Congress having to vote down a draft after Iran and US Naval forces have accidentally exchanged fire that resulted in the sinking of a ship. The Chimp is not Hitler, but a Kaiser Wilhelm . . .

Why, you then ask, if they are so good at gaming the electoral system, why don’t they see the hole they have dug for themselves. Well, like I heard Krugman say three years ago, they just figure everything will work out. Like the CEO trying to make numbers for the next quarterly return, the same for GOP political operatives who only look to the next election.

Do I want to see the Dems take power. Of course. They could provide some oversight for the next two years and throw some populist bills up for veto. But make no mistake, short of suspending the democratic process, the Republican Party is done.

Be it this wave, or the next in two years.


The German Emperor is ageing me; he is like a battleship with steam up and screws going, but with no rudder, and he will run into something some day and cause a catastrophe. He has the strongest army in the world and the Germans don't like being laughed at and are looking for somebody on whom to vent their temper and use their strength. After a big war a nation doesn't want another for a generation or more. Now it is 38 years since Germany had her last war, and she is very strong and very restless, like a person whose boots are too small for him. I don't think there will be war at present, but it will be difficult to keep the peace of Europe for another five years.

Sir Edward Grey, Britain's foreign secretary, from an article in response to the comments made by Kaiser Wilhelm II in the Daily Telegraph (November, 1908)