A CONSERVATIVE blog thinks the filibuster WISE- even if a certain loss:

http://www.redstate.com/story/2006/1/18/22408/6325
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One thing you can be sure of, however, is that Harry Reid does know exactly who is behind him and who is not. And surely, after the caucus meeting today, he's got a pretty accurate count of whether he can hold a filibuster together and force the Constitutional Option or not. Based on that calculation, the situation presents Reid with a pair of interesting strategical dilemmas.

If he knows that he does not have enough votes to survive a cloture vote, does he call for a filibuster anyway? In so doing, he can at the very least put pressure on Lincoln Chafee, who is facing a very uphill battle in Rhode Island. Chafee is balancing on such a thin wire right now that a vote either way might very well doom his chances in the general election - a vote FOR cloture would be damaging with Rhode Island's overwhelmingly Democrat general election voters. If he votes no, that may well be the final straw that provokes GOP primary voters to kick him to the curb. For Reid, I think his choice is actually made easier if he knows he doesn't have the votes to survive a cloture vote: by calling for a filibuster anyway, he doesn't risk losing the filibuster as a future tool in the judicial battles, and he likely insures a gained seat for his party in 2006.

If Reid knows that his filibuster would survive a cloture vote, his choice becomes much more difficult. If he presses a filibuster anyway, he buys at least a week of delay in the process - and he may be able to keep Alito off the court for the entire term. Also, forcing a vote on the Constitutional Option would provide great fodder for Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey in October television ads. However, this would come at a very steep price - the certain knowledge that the filibuster would be gone forever. Would Reid be willing to face a world without judicial filibuster in which Bush nominated Emilio Garza to replace Justice Stevens? My guess is that he would not. However, if he feels that he can win back control of the Senate entirely in 2006, he may chance it anyway, banking on the continued health and survival of the four liberal Justices currently on the court - at least for another 10 months.

Right now, the safest tactic for Reid to pursue is to call for a filibuster, but to give consent to the 7 Democrat "gangsters" to vote for cloture (or at least, enough of them to push the vote over 60). In so doing, he can significantly tilt the playing field in at least one critical race in '06, basically for free. However, the bolder move would be to exercise all the discipline that he can, and force the GOP to exercise the Constitutional option. And, if he feels that the majority can be regained in '06, this is actually the right tactical decision.

It seems to me that at least two things are relatively certain: (1) Alito will be confirmed, and (2) If Reid plays his cards right, he can make the GOP pay for it. Either way, I can't see how a filibuster doesn't make tactial sense for the Democrats at this point, given the current political landscape. And I don't see a way to avoid some damage from the fallout.


:P

You fight for what you believe in - even if you have have do endure some losses.

Definitely an interesting perspective...thanks for posting.

I do think this latest move is nothing more than for the appearance that we're being listened to. I don't think any Dem expects it to work, and that frankly they won't be disappointed if it doesn't.

really want the leadership to try and block Alito, really keep the lying sack of carp off SCOTUS. If too many Dems vote for cloture, I really think we're looking at not only a disgruntled base, but a base that will feel betrayed. How do you win back a majority with that situation?

(remember Ross Perot) - then regrouped - appealing to the furthest right of their base.

This might send a message to Democratic strategists that they don't have a "lock" on us -- and need to appeal to US to.

...but it's been like that for six years now. It makes me wonder about the intellgence of our leadership--if they've been so brainwashed to listening what Washington says (by that, I mean the isolated press corps and pundits) they can't hear the shouting by their base.

since the Republicans can pull the "nuclear option" at any time, for any filibuster . . . the only thing that may save it is a Democratic Congress . . . and that's not going to happen as long as BushCo owns the voting machines and tabulates the election results . . .