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Edited on Sun Nov-12-06 12:41 PM by mike_c
No matter what Angelides' failings were-- and the dust will probably not settle on that argument for some time-- the essential truth remains that Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the gubernatorial race in a hideously weakened position. In early 2006 Schwarzenegger was very much a lame duck, and the fortunes of the California GOP with him. The race was the democrats' to lose at that point, and most folks thought that the proverbial ham sandwich could have beaten the wounded Schwarzenegger with ease. Schwarzenegger and his administration had approval ratings in the low thirties-- he had a target painted prominantly on his back.
So what happened? In short, the dems lost it. Again, I'm not interested in exploring WHY Phil Angelides wasn't able to rally democratic support so much as pointing out the general phenomenon-- a weakened, blundering GOP incumbant who should have been an easy mark defeated a democratic challenger who was unable to build support for his campaign among the very people who should flocked to him.
This should be a cautionary tale for democrats in 2008. The GOP will be on the ropes, especially if the democratic party controlled congress uses it's investigatory and oversight powers to turn over lots of rocks between now and 2008. The presidential race will probably be the dems' to lose, much like the 1976 race in the wake of Nixon's disgrace. But like the California 2006 gubernatorial race, a dem candidate who cannot inspire the dem base could lose the election. A dem candidate who wins the election but fails to implement an agenda of profound political and social change will likewise set the stage for future democratic party defeat.
The republican party has radicalized, despite the calls for moderation from its long time conservative foundation. Their vision of America's future can only be prevented from becoming reality if we change the underlying political climate sufficiently to make their vision irrelevant. That can only occur if dems nominate and elect candidates with genuine agendas for social change, not candidates that pander to the fearful center. No change will come from the center. The status quo will lead us back to the dark days of the Bush presidency over and over.
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