What will be the likely pretext for attacking Iran and/or Syria? An unprovoked carrier sinking?

Whatever the devised excuse turns out to be it will need to meet three main criteria...

1. The WOW!-factor would likely reach 'shock and awe' levels, only this time Uncle Sam would be on the receiving end.

2. Any official version of "the incident" will have to have less holes in it than the 911 claptrap still being put about by the MSM. Let's face it, "911" was a quantum leap in terms of sophistication when compared to Johnson's "Bay of Tonkin Incident".

3. Additionally, some kind of justification for declaring martial-law at home would be advantageous.

My hope is that none of the above comes to pass. Sadly, I won't be surprised if it does come to pass. Let's not ignore recent concerns expressed by Senator Joe Biden, and others, regarding the expansion of the war beyond Iraq's borders.

The pretext, if such is sought, will be something small on the border, and the initial action will simply be a bombing of facilities near the border, that in all probability actually are involved in the infiltration of agents, cash, and arms into Iraq. The Iranians will not respond directly, and certainly not against U.S. naval forces, but by stirring trouble clandestinely elsewhere, eranging from Lebanon to Baluchistan, and certainly includingt he south of Ieaq.

Should the Syrian or Iranian escalation turn out to be a big one, however, I'm pretty sure they'd have given a lot of thought to conjuring up some kind of dramatic catalystic event in order to get domestic public opinion back on Bush's saddle.

If sustaining their War On Terror is at stake I'm afraid their motto of 'anything goes' will continue to dominate the administration's decision making processes.

Karl Rove is an admirer of president McKinley

Maybe he'd like to go back and take the bullet for McKinley

DAMN THEM TO HELL!! LET THEM HAVE IT, BOYS!!!

Blowing up buildings is easy. You would never take out one of your best weapons for this purpose. A cruiser or something like that maybe but never a carrier.

Iran and Syria are supplying money, arms and fighters to the insurgents in Iraq.

It's all in the words. Insurgents implies that they are a rebel force, not patriots fighting against a alien occupying power. (Twisting words works both ways).

Of course, Iran has nuclear ambitions, so there is another reason for us to step in. Never mind that Israel has the bomb, or North Korea. Iran can not have one, WE have decided that.

And it was the GULF of Tonkin, and the resolution by the same name that got us into Vietnam. Remember the biggest anti-war senator of the day, William Fullbright? He sponsored the resolution. So forgive me if I put little faith in the truthfulness of our elected officials statements. All any of them believe in is that the ends justify the means.

and then see what comes out. I doubt Bush will dream up a reason this time. He'll just point at the flying hornets and yell "terra terra terra".