What if Bush had given this speech three years ago today?

Tomorrow I will order our Armed Forces to invade the nation of Iraq with the objective of removing Saddam Hussein and installing a new government. The decision to go to war is the most serious any President can make. I am addressing the nation now to tell you the reason for my decision, and I owe it to you to tell the entire truth.

We are not invading tomorrow because Saddam Hussein and Iraq had anything to do with the events of September 11. The hijackers were Saudi, bin Laden is a Yemeni being sheltered in Pakistan, and he hates Saddam as much as we do. Indeed, my Administration has been planning to invade Iraq since first taking office, long before September 11.

And we are not invading because Saddam Hussein supports terrorism. He is far down the list of terrorist supporters, and does not support any terrorists of global reach.

Nor does Iraq pose an imminent threat. Iraq is no threat to us or its neighbors. Years of sanctions, no-fly zones, and occasional surgical strikes by Bill Clinton rendered Iraq incapable of mounting any kind of an effective WMD program. They have nothing.

But I say to you, we must liberate Iraq from its horrible dictator, Saddam Hussein. His Baathist regime is highly repressive and cruel. As late as 1988, it used chemical weapons against its own population. Many victims of this heinous action were not buried in individual graves. And until recently, he has not cooperated with UN weapons inspectors.

So you can see, we have no choice but to invade.

But Operation Iraqi Freedom will come at a great cost for America.

It will require the parcipation or redeployment of virtually our entire Armed Forces. The Reserves and National Guard will have to be called up in massive numbers -- even the honor guard at the Tomb of the Unknowns will be deployed.

Moreover, our forces in Afghanistan, working on the still-unfinished business with Al Qaeda, will be scaled down to free up men for the invasion of Iraq.

Victory will not come easily. We might still be there, trying to restore order, for three years or more. Our commitment there might be generation-long.

And we have no plan whatsoever for governing or controlling the country after the invasion. Unless the Iraqis hand over the keys to their country and do exactly what we want, we will be at the mercy of events. Saddam has held Iraq together through sheer brutality. As a consequence of the invasion, it is likely that order will break down. Iraq may become a failed state and a haven for all kinds of lawlessness and terrorism. There is a possibility that Iraq will form a national unity government. But it is more likely that Iraq's majority Shiite population, clsoely allied with Iran, will dominate the government.

The invasion and occupation will be dangerous. In the first three years, this action could result in the deaths of over 2300 American lives and injure tens of thousands more. And it may cost the lives of over 100,000 Iraqis.

And we will invade without the approval of the international community. Major allies have refused to participate, and the Western Alliance may face its worst crisis since World War Two.

Moreover, the cost in dollars will be staggering. We will need over $87 billion the first year alone, and the total cost may be as high as $500 billion. Counting indirect costs, the war might cost over $1 trillion.

But I tell you now, my decision is to invade Iraq immediately. Saddam is such a horrible, monsterous dictator, the invasion with all its costs is fully justified.

Thank you, and may God continue to bless America.

It looks like a USB port. Maybe he really is a machine.

In answer to your question about your hypothetical speech, Bush's base would still say yes to whatever he wanted, no matter what. Then there's the non-voting segment of the population that doesn't give a shit, and wouldn't listen to the speech.

There would be some who would appreciate his candor and probably go along because they agreed about Saddam, but true fiscal conservatives would balk at the cost and there would be plenty of other people who wouldn't want to go "liberate" Iraq simply because Saddam was a bad guy, because they wouldn't be interested in a bunch of brown people half a world away.

In other words, you raise an interesting point. I have no idea myself which way it would have gone if Bush had given the speech you posted.

that would just be too much truth for him to handle.