Avian flu: Compare today's reporting from the U.S. vs. from Canada

Officials: U.S. Bird Flu Coming Soon

(AP) Deadly bird flu probably will arrive in the United States this year, and the government says it expects 20 to 100 suspected cases to undergo testing by the end of December.

People are not yet at risk, officials said. The government has a plan to quarantine and destroy any poultry flocks in which the virus is found.

"At this point, if you're a bird, it's a pandemic. If you're a human, it's not a pandemic," said Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt.

... Officials worry the virus might spread from migratory wild birds to the nearly 10 billion chickens raised each year in the United States. The deadly bird flu virus is rare in people, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form that could spread rapidly among people and possibly spark a worldwide epidemic.

Scientific jury still out on prospects of avian flu pandemic

CBC News

Scientists are divided about whether sporadic cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu in humans means a global pandemic is nearing.

The human health impact of H5N1 has been minimal, compared to killers like malaria and AIDS.

... "Those pundits that have been predicting disaster all this time," said Dr. Richard Schabas, Ontario's former chief medical officer. "I think it's time for them to take a good hard look at what has happened and what hasn't happened, and maybe re-evaluate their assessment."

As days pass without H5N1 altering its behaviour in humans, the chances of it triggering a pandemic are reduced, Schabas said.

This avian flu? Entire DOZENS so far.

Then it spread to a few humans....

It's not about what the disease is doing right now. It's what it could be if it ever evolves into a human-to-human form.

Then, it's 1918 all over again.

Not saying it wouldn't be serious, and that lots of people woudln't die. But millions of people die each year from the regular flu. I really dont' think this is going to shut down the entire country for months at a time, like the disaster gurus are saying.

But something's seriously whacked when a massively deadly disease like malaria gets virtually no attention.

It's a fact of life for so many, especially in Africa. Some even gain partial immunity to it.

What's chilling about malaria these days is that a new, drug-resistant strain is starting to come out.

That would mean a lot more deaths, but the disease is well-understood and new treatments will be coming out soon.

The bird flu would be unstoppable. It spreads VERY quickly, before you can develop a vaccine for it. And it's going to be deadly, with a death rate that will far exceed malaria.

But, then again, it may never develop into a human-human strain. It's not inevitable.

But don't take it lightly, either.

It's like a breath of fresh air.

I remember months ago when the great bird flu pandemic fear mongering first surfaced I was flamed and berated for suggesting it was much ado about nothing, and certainly not worth worrying about YET.

I think I'll go do the "I told you so" dance. :evilgrin:

there was bad news today
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2095339,00.html
THE virus that causes bird flu has split into two distinct genetic subgroups, widening the gene pool from which a form that could trigger a human pandemic might evolve.
snip
Before 2005 every known human case of avian flu had been caused by a particular subtype of the H5N1 virus, which affected Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.

The H5N1 virus that started to infect people in Indonesia last year, however, has now been found to have subtle genetic differences, which scientists likened to those between human cousins. While this mutation has not in itself made the H5N1 virus any more readily transmissible from person to person — the key step if it is to start a pandemic — the changes are worrying because they show that the virus is increasing in genetic diversity.

This is important because a wider gene pool creates more opportunities for H5N1 to acquire the characteristics it needs to infect humans with ease, though it remains uncertain whether or not this will happen. It will also make it more difficult for scientists to monitor the way that the virus is changing, so as to track potentially dangerous mutations.
snip
“Back in 2003 we only had one genetically distinct population of H5N1 with the potential to cause a human pandemic. Now we have two.”



Canada has made a law making it a crime with jail time and a hefty fine for health care workers who decide not to show up for work in case of a pandemic. I think they are taking it seriously.

Until more than a 100 people worldwide start dying, I'm gonna keep dancing.

Remember how they were tracking diseased individuals and their past movements hour-by-hour?

That was what prevented SARS from becoming a world-wide epidemic. Intensive investigation and preparedness. They did a superb job. China, Viet Nam, Taiwan and Canada did the right thing.

By the time 100 have died from this flu, it might be too late. This flu might move FAST.

SARS was the last scare tact "be afraid, be very afraid" nonsense that didn't materialize into a worldwide killer. But AT LEAST it was a human disease.

Bird flu strikes BIRDS. The only humans that get it KISS DEAD BIRDS and other idiocy. Humans can't give it to humans and my NEVER be able to.

It's just a boogeyman. If you want to be afraid of it go right ahead. I'm not stoppig you. And I'm not joining you.

both wild and farm poultry

results : after a quarantine of a farm, slaughter of some turkeys, 3 weeks after everything is back to normal. No spreading, no deaths, not even a sneeze from the farmer who got a shot of tamiflu just in case.

Nobody is talking about it. I mmust say that fear is rampant, but the government does everything to minimize it.

stock in the ONLY medicine that will be of any help? At least that's what they tell us.

MKJ

So there's really nothing to compare.

...until things got totally out of control. Wasn't Schabas one of those in the Canadian medical community that initially thought SARS wasn't a problem?

As far as his comment "As days pass without H5N1 altering its behaviour in humans, the chances of it triggering a pandemic are reduced" is concerned, I would think the exact opposite would be true...the more H5N1 mixes with additional species the greater the chance that an human pandemic will be triggered.

I'd rather be prepared for a pandemic and have it fizzle out than be unprepared and take greater losses.

okay, I'll be quiet and not be a spoiler.

I haven't seen it yet.Is it good?("V",right?)