Crap. More hurricanes this year than last, according to the predictions

on CNN tonight.

Global cycles vs. human affected ocean warming.

Who cares? 71 days away is the start of the season -- June 1 -- until November 30.

My family is supposed to convene in Ft. Myers in October, and I'm supposed to go to my 50th High School reunion in Orlando in late October.

My goodness. I have no idea whether any of it will happen.

In peace,

Radio_Lady

No? Good.

Remember that hurricanes are essentially heat engines.

Redstone

on and off for decades. I was raised in south Florida in the period from 1940 to 1960. Hurricanes occurred, but not with the ferocity of the "ON" part of the cycle. Others blame it on oceans warming just a degree or two.

strength, not frequency, of hurricanes.

I fully expect a population shift from vulnerable areas along the gulf and Florida coasts over the next few decades, primarily due to the lack of affordable insurance.


Warmer Oceans Blamed For Intense Hurricanes
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/state/epaper/2006/03/17/a4a_hurricanes_0317.html

Rising ocean temperatures are directly linked to a worldwide increase in hurricane strength over the past 35 years, a Georgia Tech research team reported Thursday — a finding that could add fuel to the debate over possible links between global climate change and hurricanes. The new report comes on the heels of a warning this week by a coalition of state insurance commissioners that the insurance industry is "threatened by a perfect storm of rising weather losses, rising global temperatures and more Americans than ever living in harm's way."

The analysis by Tech researchers expands on two studies last year that showed a pronounced global increase in the number of intense hurricanes, those ranked as Category 4 or 5, since 1970. The new research stops short of blaming global warming, but says the increase is "directly due" to higher sea surface temperatures, which are up about one degree in the past 35 years.

Climate experts and hurricane forecasters agree that higher ocean temperatures provide — in the form of increased water vapor — the fuel for hurricane intensification. Unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean played a key role in stoking several of last year's hurricanes.

. . .

Curry and her Tech colleagues, Carlos Hoyos, Paula Agudelo and Peter Webster, acknowledge the cycle. But they contend that the recent increase in intense hurricanes is the result of the regular cycle "imposed on the long-term trend" of increasing sea surface temperatures.


Worsened by Global Warming?
Spats Are So Tempestuous, Sides Are Barely Talking, Charge of 'Brain Fossilization'
By VALERIE BAUERLEIN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 2, 2006; Page A1

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06033/648772.stm

William Gray, America's most prominent hurricane scientist and an ardent foe of the belief that global warming has worsened hurricanes, was supposed to join a panel discussing the storms. So was Greg Holland of the National Center on Atmospheric Research -- who disagrees with Dr. Gray. But the organizers withdrew the invitations after deciding the dispute had grown so nasty it was too risky to put the two in the same room.

. . .

His adversary Dr. Holland is among a group of prominent scientists who argue that the recent burst of powerful storms isn't part of a normal pattern. In a recent article, he and co-authors said that global warming caused by human activity, while not affecting the number of hurricanes, appears to be causing more of them to be very intense. Dr. Holland went to the meeting despite the cancellation of his joint appearance with Dr. Gray and presented his paper's conclusions during a session on a wide variety of weather issues.

. . .

Dr. Gray attacked the Science article on his Web site, agreeing that ocean temperatures were climbing but maintaining that the rise was largely attributable to long-term heating and cooling trends. The rise in water temperature has negligible connection to the hurricanes, he argued. He complained that "the near universal reference to this paper over the last few weeks by most major media outlets is helping to establish a false belief among the general public...that global warming may be a contributing factor" to devastation such as that from Katrina.

. . .

Scientists on both sides say they expect follow-up studies proving they are right to be published before the next hurricane season starts in June. Drs. Trenberth and Emanuel are submitting separate studies to major journals arguing that the influence of natural cycles has been greatly overestimated, a mutinous theory in established hurricane science. Dr. Landsea says he has submitted his own analysis to a major journal confirming the natural ebb and flow of storms argued by Dr. Gray. Both sides are waiting to see which papers will be accepted.

I thought you meant George W. Bush!

(Finally got that it was global warming...)

My bad... good?

before that first storm forms. Pleasepleasepleaseplease.

I sold it under market value, just chewing fingernails until the paperwork changes hands.

Some people still want to live on a barrier island off the coast of Florida. I'm just not one of them.

seductive -- very dangerous.

We once considered buying a waterfront condominium in Everett, Massachusetts, many years ago. Right on the ocean. Three-sided view of the water. Gorgeous place.

We live sixty miles from the Pacific Ocean, not too far from several fault lines that go through Portland. We bought earthquake insurance at my insistence when we built here in 1998.

But soon we will have tuna for two and lots of bottled water around our place. Our Asian neighbors have already set up their emergency stash -- they have three teenaged children.

"You pays your money and you takes your chances!"

Chances are I'll be asleep in about an hour!

Good night and good luck!

Radio_Lady

that my mother left to me when she died, much less a house itself -- particularly after the last two stormy years. (My folks had already sold the family home and moved to smaller rental quarters.) We disposed of everything in four days and flew back home to Boston.

My parents are now deceased, but I still have a lot of former classmates living all over Florida. We do have a timeshare investment at Hilton Grand Vacation Club at Sea World in Orlando. But in the Hilton system, it translates to "points" we can use to travel all over the world.

Warpy, I'll give it a good personal thought tonight before closing my eyes.

In peace,

Radio_Lady

It was a real three ring circus trying to deal with the house and contents. I ended up renting a 30 yard dumpster and filling it plus shipping furniture back here and hiring what turned out to be a royal sleaze to sell the rest.

I looked at the number of houses for sale in the area, realized that "market value" was going to sit there forever, and priced accordingly. It's still ten times what my pop paid 35 years ago.

I just want those papers to pass so it's one less thing I have to worry about and the end of my last tie to that state.

My folks are in a box in the kitchen until I can sprinkle 'em somewhere close by.

how to think about me when I'm gone. She is a conservative Jew who believes I will reinhabit my body when the Messiah comes (you know, he ain't been here yet, according to the Jewish faith)! So, she would rather bury than cremate -- I've told her she is supposed to do what I want, not what she wants!

Besides, who would want this body after death? I want to come back as a tall, stunning blonde. Maybe Uma Thurman or Scarlett Johannsen or some gal of that ilk? (Let's hear it for reincarnation, folks!)

Sprinkle me at Multnomah Falls (see below) here in Oregon, or in the 24-Hour Fitness center pool where I have been swimming for the past three years! (Oh, no good! I might clog up the filtration system!)



In peace,

Radio_Lady

this year....

If the predicted amount of Hurricans hit....Fema is not prepared...the national guard is hurting.....I hope those communites are gearing up for mass evacuations...

the capitols of Europe in May -- Paris, London, and Edinburgh, Scotland -- who knows what could happen in those places? Then, there's the last week in New York City to celebrate my birthday, May 31. Hubby wants to go back to Ground Zero -- we visited there in November, 2001, two months after the World Trade Center was hit. This year, I'm going to visit with my cousin who has Parkinson's Disease. She's in her 70s -- used to be a beautiful dancer, and still teaching yoga classes.

My husband is an eternal optimist. We have a family expression when we get a bit depressed. We say, "Keep a good thought in your head." It does help. 99% of the things we worry about don't happen anyway, I've been told.

Oh, and my husband just put up shelving in the garage for extra supplies, in case we get an earthquake or the bird flu comes a'callin'!!! What a guy! Should I buy the tuna and powdered milk BEFORE or AFTER we go to Europe?

In peace,

Radio_Lady

What a thought.

I hope you get to go, it's a month before the election. :)

in Oregon. Then we'll get a couple of absentee ballots, if we don't have our little punch cards by then.

See you soon -- I have hand surgery scheduled for early April but I can lift a glass of beer with the other hand, right? ;)

:)

Not a big deal -- I've been through five or six hand surgeries in my life with no problems.

Just call me Old "LUMPY TENDONS"!

Don't give me a gun! I've got TRIGGER FINGER -- "stenosing tenosynovitis"! If curious, read about it at:

http://www.mayoclinic.org/triggerfinger-jax/

The big one that hits New York or New England every 70 or so years is about due.

or is it just a cycle?

I think that cycles are there, everywhere, in everything.

I also think that we've about toasted our posties as far as the climate goes.

That's going to make for bigger and badder hurricanes, thunderstorms, even winters

on the hurricanes

Just not sure about earthquakes and volcanoes. Mt. Rainier is supposedly next. Mt. St. Helens blew in 1980 as you know and is still letting off steam from last September's venting event. Mt. Hood is supposed to be a "dormant" volcano -- just sleeping.

As far as earthquakes in Portland, Oregon -- they run an old promotional video on cable TV every so often. They expect a 9.0 earthquake on the Richter Scale -- the Big One. The city is totally unprepared; as a matter of fact, the radio station where I go every Friday is not quakeproof and is built on FILLED LAND right next to the Willamette River.

But that kind of a quake could come in five minutes -- or 500 years. How can you worry about that???

We're stocking up for the next year or two. Canned tuna and powdered milk on special!

In peace,

Radio_Lady

I live in Florida, but our house was severely damaged during hurricane Jeanne. Rather than going through the nightmare of finding a contractor at that time, we sold the ruins to an investor. We've rented here for a while, but after going through yet more storms last year, we're moving ahead of this year's season.

We bought a nice, affordable house away from the usual path of the storms. You can't escape nature, true, but some places are sure as hell better prepared for disasters.

friends told me of unbelievable damage. Sanibel and Captiva Islands took a direct hit -- we couldn't believe what we saw when we were there in the winter.

Although I lived in south Florida for almost 30 years, I have no idea where in Florida would be "away from the usual path of the storms."

Are you near Jacksonville in the northeast corner of the state?

In any event, I wish you good fortune and peace, Akoto.

Radio_Lady

Ugh.