Is Bush below 30% yet?

I have a bet with my Republican brother about this...soon as Pew does a post-Plame Blame poll, someone let me know where Chimpy's approval ratings are!

Yee ha,

The Plaid Adder

Nixon, like, still over 30% when he was impeached? I have a messy grasp of that whole scandal, but so MANY things Bush has done seem to my lacking-data mind to blow Nixon's evil way, way out of the water. Bush has really raised the bar for corruption and overall suckiness, I'll give him that.

Worst. President. Ever. (Old meme, but as true as it ever was)

this link gives his outgoing poll numbers

http://uspolitics.about.com/library/bl_historical_approval.htm

sooner if he attacks Iran.

I think he's been below 30% for a long time but his buddies pump up the polls by the type and way the questions are asked and what lists they call.

I know people who work as statisticians or social scientists at Pew and ARI. The polls are valid, and the data these professionals use are unpolluted and the companies release the information as the analysts compile it.

Now, i don't doubt that the stratification methodology can lead to a slightly distorted view, because while there is, technically, a thing called "random stratification", it obviously isn't really random. And the sample size is kind of small, seeing as how it represents only one out of every 300,000 people. And, we do know that we've got a repub machine that is paid to say they are indie or dem, but will approve of Silverspoon anyway. That screws up the "randomness".

The way to get around that, of course, is to extend the sample set, but that is expensive. I think it would take around 30,000 people to dilute that effect. My contacts at Pew (who has, i believe, the best methodology), think either 22,000 or 40,000. So, my calculations put me in the middle of those 3 folks' estimates.

But, the numbers aren't bumped by "pals" after the fact.

The Professor

the industry. You surely sound as if you're comfortable with the subject. :)

ETA: there's another DU'er who worked in polling and she also had good things to say about PEW and felt badly about Gallup (it fell apart after the founder was gone).

So, i know lots of the number geeks like me. I know most of these folks through professional organizations. (Yeah, i know. A group of statisticians, analysts, and math geeks all at the same convention!)

One of the folks i know at Pew used to teach at the uni to which i was adjuncted at the time. (Only i was teaching econometric modeling at that school.) He was a stats professor who got tired of teaching Stats 101 and 102. So he moved into the polling and data industries. He worked for one of the consumer polling and marketing companies for a while, but went to Pew about 7 or 8 years ago. He's a "sort of" friend, although since he moved i don't see him much.

The folks at ARI i know through professional groups only.
The Professor

the 1% are the greedy blood sucking bastards that actually are benefiting for the bush regime

before he leaves office. Then, I get $20 plus he pays to ship me the sewing table from my grandmother's that I was supposed to be in charge of transporting from his place to my place. I knew enough not to go for Fox or Gallup!

I'm waitin'.

C ya,

The Plaid Adder

The Professor

..

And that might have been Fox.

the real polls are indicating. I would assume 8-10% lower.

... between the beginning of March and the beginning of April (pre-"authorized leak"). Pew's poll is a 5-day polling period and probably won't be completed/published for April until next week - and then it'll span the pre-story and post-story days. It seems to me the it's clear that Smirk lost two approval points even before the story he "authorized NIE leaking." I'd guess he'll take another 2-point hit from that by itself.

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

to win this one, and sooner rather than later! :toast:

Then he's at about 34%. If you use the REAL, unmanipulated figures, he is running a popularity deficit of approximately 13 points.

Three day polls that start today and have the Sunday talk shows will be the ones that really start to reflect this. Friday is news dump day, the president leaking this may or may not escape notice. The Sunday news shows hopefully will cover this, I am sure Jon Stewart will be all over it, I know Randi Rhodes has been doing her part, so has Rachel Maddow. The freepers at that other site know about it, I think they are blaming the French or something. Monday will be the first polls coming out with all survey days post leak. If anything puts him under 30% this weekend, he is toast.

As of today.

with any luck

If we don't regain power in November, I can't imagine what the next two years are going to be like.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Average for 03-29-04-05 (pre-leak revelation): Approve 38.0% Disapprove 57.0%

FOX News 04-04 - 04-05 Approve 36% Disapprove 53%
AP-Ipsos 04-03 - 04-05 Approve 36% Disapprove 62%
Rasmussen 04-03 - 04-05 Approve 43% Disapprove 56%
Time 03-29 - 03-30 Approve 37% Disapprove 57%

Pre-leak revelation numbers:
Bush, GOP hit new lows in polls
The Associated Press
Saturday, April 08
http://www.berkshireeagle.com/nation/ci_3687239

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush has hit new lows in public opinion for his handling of Iraq and the war on terror and for his overall job performance. Polling also shows the Republican Party surrendering its advantage on national security.

The AP-Ipsos survey is loaded with grim election-year news for a party struggling to stay in power. Nearly 70 percent of Americans believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction — the largest percentage during the Bush presidency and up 13 points from a year ago.

"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one."

And still the GOP candidate for Gov had the audacity to bring the bastard here for $10,000 each photographs with supporters.

I think he'll still be in the 30s (unfortunately) but down a few more points... maybe 33 or 34. If t's any consolation, I think he's there to stay.