AP: What Went Wrong with the Italian Polls?

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/04/12/news/nation/15_01_564_10_06.txt

By: FRANCES D'EMILIO - Associated Press

ROME -- Politicians who rarely agreed on anything else agreed that the vote was too close to call. So why did exit polls hours earlier Monday give Romano Prodi a strong edge over Premier Silvio Berlusconi?

"It's very strange this thing," said an exasperated Serafino Ruperto, spokesman for the Nexus polling organization.

A minute after polling stations closed, state TV and media mogul Berlusconi's own private networks broadcast Nexus exit polls showing center-left leader Prodi garnering between 50 percent to 54 percent of the vote in the parliamentary election, compared to 45-to-49 percent for Berlusconi's conservative bloc.

Something similar happened in the 2004 U.S. presidential elections, when exit polls overstated support for Democrat John Kerry overall and in many key states, which led to widespread confusion that day about the election eventually won by President Bush.

Or do they paper count?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=896441&mesg_id=896441


Looks like a crony company called Accenture from this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=895686&mesg_id=895686

that would explain it.

Before the election, I didn't know many Bush supporters personally. Most people I knew were very proud Kerry voters. After the election, all of the people I knew started confessing that they voted for Bush. I think many of them were embarrassed to say anything about it before. Anyway, I could definitely see this kind of reaction having a serious effect on exit polls.