Iraq war may cost US trillions

10/01/2006 10:49 - (SA)

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Washington - The Iraq war will likely cost the United States anywhere between one and two trillion dollars, despite earlier assurances by the White House that these expenses will be manageable, reveals a new study co-authored by a Nobel Prize winning economist.

The research made public on Monday by Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, a 2001 Nobel Prize laureate and former chief economist at the World Bank, and economy professor Linda Bilmes of Harvard University, argued current official assessments of the war cost fail to consider key expenses likely to dog the US budget for years to come.

More: http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Iraq/0,,2-10-1460_1860611,00.html

Just one more reason to formulate an "exit strategy." Maybe this one might reach some of the hawks who thought going to Iraq was a good idea to begin with, or some of those who think that, right or wrong, we need to "stay the course." If they can't be reached with concepts like peace and non-violence, perhaps they can feel a twinge in their wallets.

insanity

or with keeping social security healthy with that kind of money.

Or perhaps we could build enough schools so that all public schools only have to serve about 250 kids with a 14-1 student-teacher ratio, like that school GWB used to "celebrate" the anniversary of NCLB.

Or we could provide affordable housing.

Or we could do some or all of the above.

Incredible.

Maybe, for just one year, we could do without judges, justice, prisons, research, .. military .., Social Security payments (no eating for a year - for them!), research, education, foreign relations, .. interest payments -- shhhh!, et. al., and, not to especially mention, PORK. JUST FOR ONE YEAR!

We could pay it off, really fast.

I'm sure each american is ready to suck that up to get us out of debt.

What's $8,000? Just turn off the utilities, stop buying food, and walk to work for a year.

And, more than double that since you'll be paying interest all the time you repay it. Works like a mortgage.

More accurately, what do you pay for a year. As someone with time to type on DU, maybe not that much :-) like me. So, that family of four: Mom and Dad make 75 and 35 a year, with deductions they pay 17% effective or 18K$. Bush adds 25% borrowing, so 22.5K$ plus future interest. In later, or earlier, years they pay more having fewer deductions as a family of four.

So, 25-30K$ will come out of their pockets or benefits to pay for the Iraq war for which they enjoy the benefit of having:
Saddam embroiled in a trial,
Saddam's children killed and displayed in morgue pictures,
no more Saddam's kids raping their own countrymen,
no more Saddam killing hundreds of his own people when we ask them to rise up against him,
a few thousand soldiers dead,
several tens of thousands of Iraqis dead,
ten times those numbers injured, severely,
paying benfits to those wounded already included,
Iraqis having more than one candidate on their ballots,
and the like.

Just not worth it to me. Just awful to think about.

They knew they were lying

"Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks."

We're still paying today for World War II. Also for Korea and Vietnam and Gulf Oil War I. This is for the health and other services that veterans use once they return from their war experiences. This not only includes VA hospitals, but also for the other ancillary by-products. Billions will be spent for divorces for families broken by the constant re-deployments and the mental scars wars create that manifest after they return. Talk to a Vietnam Vet who faced real combat and they'll go into that 1,000 yard stare...that war is still very much in them and with them. In the worst cases, and sadly there are many, this cost goes into law enforcement, institutionalization, welfare and other "indigent" services that result when these vets can't re-adjust to society...especially one that will (and it's already happening) view these vets in a negative light. Unfortunately, while booosh will never feel the real pains of this war, those who fought it for him will pay the price for years to come. While boosh will retire to Playstation heaven, these people will live in hell refighting the battles of Fallujah and Main Street for the rest of their lives. The price can't even be calculated.

The true cost of "supporting the troops," those that survive and come home needing more than they are likely to get, isn't calculated.

My son's best friend just finished his tour of duty, and is being discharged. He came home physically healthy but with quite a bit of psychological damage. We've been talking to a couple of local viet nam vets about our role in helping him adjust, and how to encourage him to get more professional help, as well. So far, his best support system has been his fellow vets, from several different wars. He wasn't offered any services to re-adjust to civilian life by the veteran's administration.

Shouldn't those services be standard?

And depending on what he's seen or experienced, how can anyone who hasn't been in a similar situation even begin to comprehend the living hell that is going on. How does one fight those demons? It wasn't until the last 25 years the military has started to realize that mental health of veterans is a bigger long-term problem than their physical health, but it's still far from being of any assistance. Many still use terms like "shell shock" to describe what your friend's son is going through.

Havin missed Nam myself by one year...the '73 Paris Peace Treaty was signed right before my 18th birthday, I did have many friends who did serve in that war and saw the problems they had in re-adjusting. Some never did. One good friend served on S & D (Search & Destroy) missions in the Mekong jungle. It took a lot of drinks and years of trust for him to open up about the experiences he faced...and the stories were chilling. Imagine having that imagine in your head first-hand day and night.

While I think he's a nutcase, Charlie Daniels did one hell of a tune describing what these people were going through called "Still In Saigon" that came out about 1980.

Fortunately, medical science has made wars more survivable in a physical sense...now the focus has to be on the mental one...and sadly, we're a long way from this debate to take place. First you need the war and the nightmare creation machine to end first.

Peace...

With the $2.0 Trillion in past spending and future obligations for the Iraq operation as of todays estimate.

The $2,000 B comes to $1.88 B/dy so far ($2,000 B @ 2.92 yr.)
US oil consumption ~ 20.0 M bbl/dy

Therefore the money spent equates to an oil price of $94.00/bbl, to secure foreign oil supplies, in a (so far) losing cause.

Alternately, we could be getting a good head start on energy self sufficiency, instead of fighting to secure something that will be running out in 20 years anyway.

What could we buy for our $2,000 B obligated to the ‘Catastrophic Success’ so far?

U.S. Energy Consumption by Source

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0103.html

2000 data, all in Quadrillion Btu (Quads)

.....................Quads...% Total
Coal.................22.65....23.1
Natural Gas (Dry)....23.92....24.1
Petroleum............38.40....38.8
Nuclear Electric......7.86.....7.9..103 plants
Renewable.............6.16.....6.2
......................====....====
.....................98.99...100.0

For nuclear, to replace the energy from petroleum (would have to be converted to an energy carrier for transportation), we would need 503 addl. plants to replace the 38.40 Quads of petroleum based energy. In the 70’s, I seem to remember them costing $1-2 B, so let’s say $4 B/ea. Therefore, we would need $ 2,012 B (I recognize that next gen nuclear plants would be smaller than the current high pressure water plants of today, but for the purpose of this exercise, it should get us in the ballpark).

How about wind? Per Heinberg, wind power potential in the US is 60 Quads. Let’s say we install 24 Quads of wind power to replace the 23.9 Quads of natural gas. This would require 667,000 turbines at $600,000/turbine, or $400 B. For wind, lets throw in $150 B of pumped hydro to store the wind energy.

Also, we probably need to figure in $300 B in power grid improvements.

So, from the above, we spend $2,012 B + $ 400 B + $150 B + $ 300 B = $2,862 B to build the energy generation capacity to replace the energy from petroleum and natural gas.

So for $2,000 B, we could replace 70% of our petroleum and natural gas energy, or 189% of our imported petroleum energy. Not a bad start.

Instead, all the money that has been spent has only succeeded in digging us into a deeper hole from both a geopolitical, economic and energy standpoint.

How’s that for leadership. How's that for conservatism.

Note: I am not suggesting the above energy 'policy', too unbalanced. It is just a back of the envelope calculation to illustrate how badly the GOP has squandered the wealth of a once great nation.

Iran? Syria? Venezuela? They'll keep it going until the money's gone or the fuel is gone, whichever comes first. Blow a country up, then drain the treasury to "fix" it.

Saving face, and controlling oil, and trying to stage a front end bitch slapping force is even more expensive. Yet somehow so many are content to just keep hanging around there and debateing this fucking disgrace, this debacle of death and torture like it was a frekin' football game, intellectualized to the point of insanity.

We are fast approaching the point where the masks will come off and we will realize that indeed no one else is going to wake up, they will never stop supporting endless war because it makes them feel good. It appeals to racists, religious fanatics, the uber rich, the uber power elite, oil barrons etc... Those people are the enemy of the world as surely as Osama or Adolf. I cant wait for the masks to come off so I can mark my enemy as an enemy. Ive fuckin had it.

that the masks only work for those who need them; for those who fear truth.

If you've nothing to gain by pretending, then you've seen through the masks all along. The words, actions, and inactions have always been ludicrous.