First Poll Out Showing Obama With Lead in Pennsylvania

Dr Ron

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Wed Apr-02-08 11:23 AM
Original message

First Poll Out Showing Obama With Lead in Pennsylvania

Three polls show Obama narrowing the gap and one poll from Public Policy Polling shows Obama with a two point lead. This is a a remarkable change from Clinton�s twenty-six point lead over two weeks ago. The previous poll was taken at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama�s speech on race in Philadelphia.

Links to the four recent polls can be found here:

http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=3096

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TomBall Democrat

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Wed Apr-02-08 12:08 PM
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1. I believe he'll close the gap and overtake her.

He's done it time and time again.

when people see and hear Obama - they see what we've seen.

THE FUTURE.

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silverweb

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Wed Apr-02-08 12:25 PM
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2. Yes!

:woohoo:

GObama! GObama!

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4_Legs_Good

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Thu Apr-03-08 12:18 PM
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3. Before you get tooooo excited about these poll numbers, please check these expectations

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=388&topic_id=3475&mesg_id=3475

I'm not saying you can't be optimistic, but these guys are good, really good, and warn against raising expectations too high on PA. After reading the analysis (granted a few weeks old now), I don't doubt that Obama will lose PA, but I hope he can close the gap enough to make it only a modest win for Clinton, and a good spring board for us in the next primaries, where I hope he'll clean up.

His inabilty to take Ohio showed to me that there are simply some areas that simply cannot be moved far enough. Closing the gap is very important, but winning the state isn't as crucial.

David

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ginnyinWI

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Thu Apr-03-08 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. It's always better to lower expectations.

Edited on Thu Apr-03-08 02:38 PM by ginnyinWI

He'll probably come close but not win it, IMO. I'm willing to concede 5 net delegates to HRC. No, make that 4. :)

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ladym55

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Thu Apr-03-08 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. One difference in PA is that this is a closed primary

Hillary benefited from some very strange white votes in Ohio. Counties where Democrats NEVER do well had folks show in large numbers to vote Democratic and vote for Hillary. Those will all be votes for McCain in the fall.

In Cuyahoga County (where Cleveland is), many Republicans crossed over just to play with the Democrats and when interviewed, said that was their purpose. I wish there had been more examination of how the voting went in Ohio in more detail. It will be interesting to see how things play out in Pennsylvania where these games won't be possible.

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4_Legs_Good

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Thu Apr-03-08 05:16 PM
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6. Wouldn't it be ironic if the closed primary benfited Obama now, kinda Alice in Wonderland

Back in the beginning of the campaign when people were voting for who they *wanted* to be President, independent votes benefited Obama. Now that it's all about disruption and stopping Obama, independent votes are benefiting Clinton.

Just seems weird to me. I just wish you could force people to vote for whomever they thought was best, not vote strategamacially.

David

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Kukesa

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Thu Apr-03-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #5

9. If you want to know about Ohio's cross-over voting debacle,

have a look at our Ohio Forum. We've been complaining about it since it took place on March 4.

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Bryan

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Thu Apr-03-08 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #3

7. I'm beginning to think closing the gap might do it

The Clinton campaign's funding problems are so bad that their debt is increasingly at parity with their income, to say nothing of the outgo for regular operations. Having to fight to keep Pennsylvania might finally sink the campaign.

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4_Legs_Good

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Thu Apr-03-08 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. That's a really good point. Also, I think that even her Hail Mary pass

of trying to sway the superdelegates on the notion that she's more electable than he is will likely fall flat when Obama is consistently able to raise "significantly more" than she has, and from a huge base of small donors.

Definitely, though, having to worry about states that should be "in the bag" really drains resources.

David

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