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warrior1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 07:56 AM
Original message
Be afraid.


Pandemic
California is out front in trying to prepare for disaster
By Deb Kollars - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PDT Sunday, June 3, 2007

If a worldwide influenza pandemic were to strike -- and global health experts warn that it is inevitable -- a medical nightmare could unfold:

A half million deaths in the United States alone. Two million hospitalizations. Patients suffering on cots in the hallways. Nurses too sick to come to work. Shortages of medicines, sheets and face masks. And at every turn, haunting questions.

An 80-year-old man lies in a hospital bed, so sick he needs a ventilator to breathe. A 16-year-old boy arrives with the same flu. Without a ventilator, he will die. But there are no more. What should the doctors do?

It is horrible to contemplate, but the state of California is doing just that. While national health experts worry that the public has lost interest in the pending threat over the past year, California health officials are taking unprecedented steps to prepare for the possibility.

"It's a scary thought, just like an 8.0 Richter scale earthquake is a scary thought, and we need to prepare," said Dr. Mark Horton.

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/203957.html
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Christa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 07:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. yeah ... *sigh*
let me get out the duct tape :silly:
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #1
10. No duct tape, but some common sense
Apparently the US government has sent out information to all the counties in the various states about planning for a flu pandemic and other natural disasters. Our local county judge presented the information at a meeting last November. Basically, the word was this: in case of an emergency, count on yourself first, and not the feds. He suggested two months' supply of food and water be stored in each person's house, and to limit travel. Any vaccines, etc, would be given to health care workers first, followed by emergency/fire/police. Our ND went on from there to give a talk about building up the immune system and precautions that should always be taken, such as sanitation, to keep virus from spreading. (I followed her advice and didn't get sick this winter)
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zippy890 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. THIS VIRUS IS LETHAL, AFRAID IT MAY BE TOO LATE ---->


Actual image, magnified, from CDC of the Sneer Microbe666. This strain of bacteria is extrmemly deadly, lurks in a masked dormant state, and uses other bodies as 'hosts' to inflict widespread destruction and pain in order to spread.

One strange trait of the Sneer Microbe666, it disappears into 'bunkers' or 'undisclosed locations' under stressful conditions.

Scientists state, however, this dangerous microbe is easily identified by its characteristic 'sneer' and hulking demeanor.

Duct tape won't stop this, I'm afraid!!



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MisterHowdy Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
2. so many things to be afraid of, so many possible disaster scenarios.
Humanity has survived everything that has been thrown at it.
Ice ages, predators, plagues, shifting magnetic poles, wars, lunatic leadership, etc, etc, etc.

i say bring it on.

We'll be fine
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. You are right
our local officials held a meeting about this last November, and gave very practical advice as to what to do--and survive.
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janetblond Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
3. The TB jerk on the planes was a "test run" ...
it's coming .. bushco & the CDC will see to it!
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cgrindley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. I hope they ration health care in the event of a pandemic
too much money is already wasted catering to the vanity of the extremely elderly, and to groups of people whose choices have caused their expensive conditions, health care could be free to everyone if it were scaled back to preventative medicine and essential care for those of working age. The UK has it right to tell smokers to quit and fatties to lose weight. Canada is right to put the elderly at the back of the line for expensive surgeries.
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. I think that is the plan
In November, the non-profit health Foundation I work for part time had a meeting on the possibility of pandemic. The local official laid out the plans made by the county, which he said were based upon what the Feds said they could do in case of an emergency (which wasn't much). They already have in place a hierarchy of who gets vaccine and care. He recommended that the general public stay home and not crowd the hospital trying to get flu shots, etc. He also said it was wise to keep a stock of food and water that could last at least two months. He was frank and very enlightening in his talk. They even have picked out a place for a mass grave, in case it comes to that.
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MistressOverdone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
5. I wonder if they make
those head things in different colors, to match our outfits?
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smirkymonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
17. No, but they do come in a lovely shade of Tinfoil...
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
6. I'm not afraid.
We had a public meeting about this at the Foundation last November. Our County Judge (in other places, he'd be on the County Board of Supervisors)outlined what could and would be done if a pandemic hit our area. What he said would apply to just about anywhere in the US, I think; it was information the Feds gave him about how quickly they could respond to an emergency. He was open and frank, telling folks to have two month's food and water stored at home. He recommended staying at home if a pandemic hit, and said that vaccines would go to people with priority-health care workers, emergency workers, and the like. Then the ND on our staff got up and gave a list of ways to build up one's own immune system so it would be less likely that one would contract the flu. She included sanitation tips and other useful information. We felt this information was so important that the Foundation recorded the session and has it available on CD. PM me if you are interested in getting a copy. Personally, I followed the advice given during this talk and found that I stayed unusually well during the winter, even as my co-workers were getting sick.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:26 AM
Response to Original message
9. Be Prudent. Not Afraid.
Let's see, Bush doesn't do enough ahead of time to save New Orleans, but preparation for a possible pandemic by the government is irrational?

Fear is, at times, irrational. True. Sometimes not.

I have no fear of a pandemic or any other disaster, but I would think it ludicrous if government agencies didn't want to prepare for such possibilities.

Businesses are currently preparing for just such scenarios. For example, if your kids are sick with the influenza virus, then they are preparing their employees to work from their homes by giving them the communication tools necessary, et cetera.

Think of just the economic impact a pandemic would have?

To me, it just doesn't make any logical sense to not prepare for it.

We could have had an entirely different outcome in NOLA if Bush-Cheney hadn't de-funded the levy rebuilding ahead of time.







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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Preparedness plans already being done
in northwest Arkansas, at least. The county where I work is prepared, and has handed out protocol sheets to all businesses-we are to make a plan as to what to do in case of an emergency--ours is easy, as there are fewer than five employees, including the boss. But some of the factories and shipping companies in town (we're a hub for Fed Ex Freight)employ hundreds, and they have protocols set in place as to what to do, according to our county judge, who is in charge of emergency/disaster plans. If something comes, be it flu or a tornado, we have plans to deal with it.
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porphyrian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
12. We've been overdue for a flu pandemic for nearly twenty years now.
Freaking out all of a sudden is kind of stupid.
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Nunyabiz Donating Member (504 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
13. I along with several others were dusted with Tularemia
at the 2005 Sept 24th protest in Washington.
There were about 350,000 minimum there that day don't know how many were infected. I was extremely sick for about 2 months.
I have little doubt this was a test to see how best to spread pathogens amongst "enemy combatants" also known as 70% of the American public.

"Biological alarm in Washington

*Did terrorists attack Washington with a deadly pathogen?*

*By Mark Benjamin*

Oct. 18, 2005 | On Sept. 24, 2005, tens of thousands of protesters
marched past the White House and flooded the National Mall near 17th
Street and Constitution Avenue. They had arrived from all over the
country for a day of speeches and concerts to protest the war in Iraq.
It may have been the biggest antiwar rally since Vietnam. A light rain
fell early in the day and most of the afternoon was cool and overcast.

Unknown to the crowd, biological-weapons sensors, scattered for miles
across Washington by the Department of Homeland Security, were quietly
doing their work. The machines are designed to detect killer pathogens.
Sometime between 10 a.m. on Sept. 24 and 10 a.m. on Sept. 25, six of
those machines sucked in trace amounts of deadly bacteria called
Francisella tularensis. The government fears it is one of six biological
weapons most likely to be used against the United States.

It was an alarming reading. The biological-weapons detection system in
Washington had never set off any alarms before. There are more than 150
sensors spread across 30 of the most populated cities in America. But
this was the first time that six sensors in any one place had detected a
toxin at the same time. The sensors are also located miles from one
another, suggesting that the pathogen was airborne and probably not
limited to a local environmental source.

William Stanhope, associate director for special projects at the St.
Louis University School of Public Health's Institute for Biosecurity,
has been closely following scattered government and news reports about
the incident. He's convinced it was a botched terrorist attack. "I think
we were lucky and the terrorists were not good," he says. "I am stunned
that this has not been more of a story."

The DHS scrambled for three days to confirm just what may have been in
the air that day. On Sept. 27, it turned for help to the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC did its own tests, and on Sept.
30 -- six days after the deadly pathogens set off the sensors and well
into the incubation period for tularemia -- alerted public health
officials across the country to be on the lookout for tularemia, the
deadly disease caused by F. tularensis.

"It is alarming that health officials ... were only notified six days
after the bacteria was first detected," House Government Reform chairman
Tom Davis, R-Va., wrote in an Oct. 3 letter to Homeland Security
Secretary Michael Chertoff. "Have DHS and CDC analysts been able to
determine if the pathogen detected was naturally occurring or the result
of a terrorist attack?"

Government officials say the sensors detected a natural event. "There is
no known nexus to terror or criminal behavior," Russ Knocke, spokesman
for the Department of Homeland Security, told the Washington Post. "We
believe this to be environmental." "It is not unreasonable that this is
a natural occurrence," says Von Roebuck, spokesman for the CDC. "There
are still no cases of tularemia."

However, Salon has spoken to numerous people who were at the Washington
Mall on Sept. 24. Four say they got sick days later with symptoms that
mirror tularemia.

Relatively speaking, F. tularensis is an effective biological weapon. A
little bit goes a long, deadly way. A tiny amount -- 10 microscopic
organisms -- can cause tularemia. After an incubation period of three to
five days (it can range from one to 14 days), tularemia attacks the
lymph nodes, lungs, spleen, liver and kidneys. Symptoms include fever,
chills, headache, muscle aches, joint pain, dry cough and progressive
weakness. Left untreated, tularemia can kill 50 percent of those who've
contacted it. Conventional strains of the bacteria do respond to
antibiotics, reducing death rates to as low as 2 percent.

As with anthrax, the U.S. military weaponized and stockpiled F.
tularensis in the 1960s. The Soviets are said to have engineered strains
to be resistant to antibiotics and vaccines. A World Health Organization
Committee in 1969 estimated that dispersal of 110 pounds of F.
tularensis over a city of 5 million would incapacitate 250,000 people
and 19,000 of them would die.

"The biggest concern is that a terrorist would use the organism because
it has such a high infectivity rate with a low number of organisms,"
says Dr. Steven Hinrichs, director of the University of Nebraska Center
for Biosecurity.

Scientists have long said that if terrorists use tularemia in an attack,
it will look like this: The bacteria will show up in the air in a city,
rather than the country, and perhaps at a major event.

"If Francisella tularensis were used as a bioweapon, the bacteria would
likely be made airborne so they could be inhaled," the CDC warns in an
information sheet on tularemia. In a June 2001 consensus statement
titled "Tularemia as a Biological Weapon," the American Medical
Association warned an attack would come in "an aerosol release" in "a
densely populated area."

There is no evidence that terrorists have ever used tularemia as a
biological weapon before, but it may have been used by the Soviets
against German troops during the 1942 Battle of Stalingrad, according to
a report by the Council on Foreign Relations. The report adds that
microbe stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Uzbekistan are
insecure and terrorists could potentially steal weaponized strains of
tularemia from them.

So far, there are no signs of a tularemia outbreak in the U.S. But
because it comes on like the flu, it is unclear if the government would
even know if a few people from the Mall that day scattered across the
United States had tularemia. The amount detected in the sensors suggests
a very small amount was in the air.

"Clinicians don't often think of it, and it has a non-specific
presentation," says Jeff Bender, an infectious disease epidemiologist at
the University of Minnesota. "It is basically flu-like symptoms that
sound like every other disease you can get."

Like anthrax, F. tularensis is a naturally occurring bacteria. It is
typically found in small mammals like squirrels, water rats and rabbits,
which is why tularemia has also been called rabbit fever. Those critters
get it mostly from bites by ticks, flies and mosquitoes. People have
contacted tularemia from insect bites or from handling or eating
infected material or skinning dead animals. F. tularensis is a concern
mostly in central and Western states, particularly Missouri, Arkansas,
Oklahoma, South Dakota and Montana. Nearly all cases occur in rural
areas, according to the CDC. Around 125 people in the United States get
tularemia each year. Most cases in the United States appear to have come
from insect bites or handling animals.

Although insects mostly transmit the disease, there have been cases
where the bacteria appears to have become aerosolized in the natural
environment. Bacteria from a dead animal could contaminate some soil. In
the right conditions, the bacteria might stay viable in the environment
for weeks. The soil might then get stirred up and cause the bacteria to
be airborne. Fifteen cases of tularemia were reported in Martha's
Vineyard in 2000, apparently after lawn mowers or brush cutters stirred
up contaminated material into the air. One person died. Public officials
have theorized something similar happened in Washington: The bacteria
got into the soil on the mall and it was the marchers themselves who
kicked it up into the air.

It is unclear if such a scenario explains what happened on Sept. 24.
"The fact that it happened in six locations would have supported an
attack scenario," says Hinrichs from the University of Nebraska Center
for Biosecurity. Hinrichs has not seen any test results proving that
what was in the air that day was a deadly pathogen. Still, he says that
government officials would have to consider the incident as more than a
natural event. "To have found it in all six would have raised their
level of suspicion," says Hinrichs. "It could be a failed attack."

The sensors that picked up on the pathogen are part of the Department of
Homeland Security's Bio Watch program. Since Sept. 11, sensors have been
placed in 30 of the most populated cities in the United States. Most
cities have roughly 12 sensors, although Washington is thought to have
more.

The exact locations of the sensors are a secret. Some are piggybacked
onto existing air monitoring stations, used by the EPA to measure
pollution. The sensors look for signs of the six pathogens scientists
consider most likely to be used as biological weapons by terrorists,
including F. tularensis. (Other pathogens include anthrax, smallpox and
plague.)

Sept. 24 was not the first time the Bio Watch sensors had detected
possible biological weapons pathogens. Since the system was deployed,
sensors around the United States have identified pathogens that could be
used as biological weapons on five separate occasions, Jeffrey Stiefel,
program manager for Bio Watch chemical countermeasures, said at an open
lecture at the National Institutes of Health on Oct. 6. In all of those
cases, the detections were apparently the result of natural phenomena.
Indeed, some critics have long worried that one weakness of the Bio
Watch program might be the difficulty of distinguishing between natural
events and terrorism.

In 2003, two Bio Watch sensors detected F. tularensis near Houston in
what the government later determined was a natural event, though the
environmental source was never identified. But this was the first time
anything popped up in Washington. "This is the first time we have had a
situation there that I am aware of," says the CDC's Roebuck. It is also
the first time six sensors simultaneously picked up on the same thing.
"It has never happened that way before -- that many," Stiefel of the DHS
said in his lecture.

Just after the antiwar rally, DHS officials faced a perplexing
situation. While the six sensors detected something, at first it was not
clear what it was.

Filters are removed from the sensors usually every 24 hours. A
laboratory then performs a preliminary test to look for signs of a
deadly pathogen. Six filters from the Mall showed the existence of a
possible pathogen during that first round of tests.

A second round of tests could confirm the presence of F. tularensis
using polymerase chain reaction techniques, which detect DNA signatures.
The second round of tests was conducted sometime between Sept. 25 and
Sept. 27. But in the second round of tests, none of the samples from the
filters was a full DNA confirmation that what was floating around
Washington that day was definitely F. tularensis. But it looked like it
could be.

"The collectors were concentrated along the Mall," Stiefel said in his
lecture. "That starts to say, 'Something looks a little funny here. The
bottom line here is that there is something out there."

This posed a quandary for department officials. Under the Bio Watch
program, substances detected that are not confirmed positive pathogens
can be ignored. But six sensors had detected the same thing in
Washington during the biggest peace march in a generation. And
Washington, D.C., is not exactly tularemia country.

There was another troubling thing. One of the sensors that went off was
located at the Lincoln Memorial on the far western end of the Mall.
Another was located near Judiciary Square, roughly two miles to the east
and two blocks north of the Mall. A third was at the Army's Fort McNair,
more than two miles from the Lincoln Memorial down the Potomac River
past the Mall, on the point of land where the Washington Channel and
Anacostia River meet. The locations of the other three sensors have not
been disclosed.

This makes a natural event on Sept. 24 more difficult to imagine. Under
the government's scenario, soil on or near the Mall somehow became
contaminated with the bacteria, perhaps from the body or blood of a dead
or injured small rabbit or squirrel. That soil then got stirred up --
possibly by the marchers themselves -- and floated across the Mall and
beyond. Marchers and book festival attendees contacted by Salon say it
was dusty on the Mall in the morning. But it rained early that day and
stayed moist, making the dust theory perhaps less likely, at least after
that rain.

"One sensor, I'd say maybe," says biosecurity expert Stanhope of the
dust theory. "Two sensors is a stretch. Six sensors? I'm sorry, you
don't have enough money to buy enough martinis to make me believe that
it is naturally occurring at six different sites. I don't think you
could get me that drunk to believe that."

As for how the bacteria may have erupted through natural processes, says
Hinrichs of the University of Nebraska Center, "I can't imagine how it
could have happened." Asked if he could imagine a scenario whereby F.
tularensis could float around the Mall in the dust, Bender, an
infectious disease epidemiologist, says, "Theoretically, it is
possible." Asked if it could have been an attack, he says, "The question
you are asking, 'Was this real or not?' That is a very valid question."

Another possibility is that somebody was testing U.S. biological weapons
defenses. How sensitive are the sensors? How quickly and effectively can
the government react?

"The Department of Homeland Security would have to consider the
possibility that it was neither natural nor an attack, but that it was a
testing of the system," says Alan Pearson, a former DHS official, who is
now the biological and chemical weapons director at the Center for Arms
Control and Non-Proliferation, a nonpartisan organization. "Was somebody
trying to see what would happen?"

Regardless of the source, Pearson says, he was troubled that it took the
government nearly a week to alert the public. "It points out that the
system is still not working fast enough," he says. "If it turned out to
be something that really affected people, which it turned out not to be,
the system was too slow."

The federal government says that the most compelling argument against a
terrorist attack is that nobody got tularemia. That may be true. But
some people say they caught something that day.

Mike Phelps, 45, says he attended the rally in Washington that day,
traveling round trip by bus from Raleigh, N.C. On Sept. 27, he came down
with a fever, sore throat and headache. Within days, he was coughing up
dark phlegm. When he blew his nose, it would bleed. "It was gross," he
says. "I literally vomited out cup loads of phlegm. Most of it was
dark-colored. I've never had anything like this before."

Phelps' doctor said he had pneumonia and prescribed antibiotics. A few
days later, Phelps read about the tularemia scare and called his doctor.
His doctor told him that if it was tularemia, he would have prescribed
him the same antibiotics. Phelps says he called the CDC but was
transferred to an automated system. Frustrated, he hung up.

Several members of the women's peace group, Code Pink, also from North
Carolina, who attended the march, say they got sick afterward. Stephanie
Eriksen, a 46-year-old network engineer for AT&T, says she developed
swollen glands and cold symptoms in her throat and chest. She developed
a persistent cough that still lingers. "My throat has still not
recovered completely," she says. Eriksen says her 14-year-old daughter
marched in Washington and got sick. She was tested for strep throat.
Eriksen said the results were negative.

Aimee Schmidt, a Code Pink member and student at North Carolina State,
says that she developed flu-like symptoms and a raging headache that
lasted three days after the march. She says her eyes hurt and her whole
body ached. She never went to the doctor. "I made a choice, wise or not,
to just deal with it," she says.

Of course, there are countless benign explanations for these symptoms.
And it could be true that nobody got sick from F. tularensis on Sept.
24. But bioterror experts say that doesn't prove it wasn't a terrorist
attack. The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, they point out, made several
unsuccessful biological weapons attacks before the sarin attack in the
Tokyo subway system on March 20, 1995. Previous efforts by the cult to
release a botulin toxin from a vehicle in 1990, and anthrax spores from
a building in 1993, apparently failed to sicken or kill anyone because
of faulty dispersal methods.

Terrorists may have made a similar screw-up in Washington on Sept. 24.
"One of my working hypotheses is that there was an attack and they
failed in their dispersion system," says Stanhope. "They dispersed an
incredibly low concentration."

Government assurances that there is "nothing to see here" are
reminiscent of the federal government's initial response to the infamous
anthrax attacks in fall of 2001. In an Oct. 4, 2001, press conference,
then-Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson
emphasized that anthrax occurs naturally in the environment and that
"there's no evidence of terrorism."

"I want everyone to understand that sporadic cases of anthrax do
occur in the United States," Thompson said. Thompson said
the first victim to fall ill, a Florida man, was an "outdoorsman" and
that investigators were looking into a stream he may have drank from in
North Carolina. That man, Bob Stevens, 63, died the next day from
inhaling weaponized anthrax that was apparently sent to the offices of
American Media Inc. in Boca Raton, Fla.

Soon after, anthrax was sent to the office of Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D.
Government officials claimed it was a "common variety" and not the
weaponized agent most feared. Of course, further investigation proved
otherwise.

Currently, the investigation into what happened on Sept. 24 is ongoing.
Government officials have apparently been taking soil samples around the
Mall, attempting to pinpoint a natural source for F. tularensis. In the
meantime, on Oct. 5, the National Institutes of Health announced it
would award two contracts worth a total of $60 million to develop new
tularemia vaccine candidates. The announcement said nothing of the
events 11 days earlier.

*-- By Mark Benjamin*




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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
14. I refuse to live my life in fear. "Be Afraid" is the Republican motto. Let them keep it.
Edited on Sun Jun-03-07 09:21 AM by elocs
To add from a thread further down as Al Gore says, "The enemy of reason is fear."
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partylessinOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
15. These control freaks can only rule by fear if you let them! Don't let them!
Without fear they have no power.

Use common sense, be aware but go on with your lives.

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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-03-07 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
18. No.
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