'Bloomberg couldn't win but he could force the House to pick the next President.'

garybeck

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:18 AM
Original message

'Bloomberg couldn't win but he could force the House to pick the next President.'

Edited on Sat Jun-23-07 02:39 AM by garybeck

If Bloomberg wins just a few electoral votes, this could make it so neither the Dem or Rep get the majority of electoral votes. If that happens, the House picks the President, with each state getting one vote. That equals a Democratic President probably, but not definitely. Not an ideal path to the office but...

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AndyTiedye

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:30 AM
Response to Original message

1. Not Sure We Win Under That Rule. Our House Majority Comes Mostly from Big Blue States

There are a lot of small red states.

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garybeck

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #1

2. correct, it's not a gimme.

and i hear that they would take into account which candidate got more popular vote, so then the issue of which candidate bloomberg took votes away from more REALLY becomes an issue.

IMHO that law is really stupid, it makes no sense. if they want to have an issue about getting the majority of electoral votes, then it should be more like Instant Runoff Voting, where people can choose their second choice.

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Bucky

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #2

5. For the record, no

They would not "take into account which candidate got more popular vote." The states with mostly Democrats in the House would cast their votes for the Democratic nominee. The states with mostly Republicans in the House would cast their votes for the Republican nominee. A few venly split states would end up deadlocking and not voting. In all likelihood, the Republican would win (The current House make up has 29 states with majority Republican House delegations.

Of course Bloomberg wouldn't actually send the election to the House. He wouldn't carry a single state. He would, however, steal enough votes from the Democratic nominee to put Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York into play for the Republicans.

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tblue

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Sat Jun-23-07 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #5

7. Oy vey! I think that's the most likely, and the worst possible, scenario. But I heard Bloomie say

he wouldn't run unless he really thinks he can win. Hence, it's doubtful he'd bother. I hope he doesn't. Though switching parties away from the GOP is always a good thing and I'm glad it made the news.

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Staph

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Sat Jun-23-07 05:31 AM
Response to Reply #5

12. Nope - the Democrats have the majority.

The Democrats have the majority of the representatives in 26
states. The Republicans have the majority in 20.  Four states
have an even number of Republicans and Democrats.

One of those tied state delegates has an empty seat.  Georgia
Republican Charlie Norwood passed away in February and has not
yet been replaced.  Assuming that he is replaced by another
Republican, the state count would be 26 Democratic states, 21
Republican states and three ties.  I would expect the
Democratic candidate to win if the election ends up in the
House.

Of course, this election in the House would be by the
newly-elected members of the House.  I would hope that we
Democrats pick up even seats in the election of 2008.


State Delegations in the U.S. House of Representatives

		R	D

Alabama		5	2	R
Alaska		1		R
Arizona		4	4	tie
Arkansas	1	3	 D
California	19	33	 D	1 deceased
Colorado	3	4	 D
Connecticut	1	4	 D
Delaware	1		R
Florida		16	9	R
Georgia		6	6	tie	1 deceased
Hawaii		0	2	 D
Idaho		2		R
Illinois	9	10	 D
Indiana		4	5	 D
Iowa		2	3	 D
Kansas		2	2	tie
Kentucky	4	2	R
Louisiana	5	2	R
Maine		0	2	 D
Maryland	2	6	 D
Massachusetts	0	10	 D
Michigan	9	6	R
Minnesota	3	5	 D
Mississippi	2	2	tie
Missouri	5	4	R
Montana		1		R
Nebraska	3		R
Nevada		2	1	R
New Hampshire	0	2	 D
New Jersey	6	7	 D
New Mexico	2	1	R
New York	6	23	 D
North Carolina	6	7	 D
North Dakota	0	1	 D
Ohio		11	7	R
Oklahoma	4	1	R
Oregon		1	4	 D
Pennsylvania	8	11	 D
Rhode Island	0	2	 D
South Carolina	4	2	R
South Dakota	0	1	 D
Tennessee	4	5	 D
Texas		19	13	R
Utah		2	1	R
Vermont		0	1	 D
Virginia	8	3	R
Washington	3	6	 D
West Virginia	1	2	 D
Wisconsin	3	5	 D
Wyoming		1		R

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garybeck

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #12

14. thanks for that

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bluestateguy

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:36 AM
Response to Reply #1

3. The whole thing would be a zoo

Some of those red states have Democratic delegations, such as the Dakotas and Arkansas. If those states vote for the republican nominee by a large margin, those Democratic congresspersons would be put under intense pressure to vote for the Republican nominee in the House vote.

It would all be very ugly. When the House chose Thomas Jefferson in 1801, it took 36 ballots.

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Perky

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #1

16. Remember how it works though

It is one vote for state. So it is effectively the state caucus who decides. So you need to look at how may are red, how many are blue and how many are evenly split.

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orleans

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:40 AM
Response to Original message

4. and the supreme court would intervene just to keep the peace in the streets

and keep their republicpricks out of their hair--and they'd select another puke!

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ThomWV

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Sat Jun-23-07 02:50 AM
Response to Original message

6. Nonsense. The next Presidential Election Will Be Won By over 20 points

And it will be an electorial landslide for the Democrat who wins it, and that will be Al Gore. Bloomburg will not make a bit of difference and in fact his name will never be part of the election discussion when the time comes. And that's another thing, this super-early electioneering is just plain bullshit.

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Bucky

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Sat Jun-23-07 03:24 AM
Response to Reply #6

9. I love your confidence and I love your scenario. But...

I don't think Gore's gonna get in. He could do so, but he's saying repeatedly he won't. The whole "well I could if I wanted to" routine is about keeping the media attentive and pushing his message. In the long run that message, the "assault on reason" meme, is very helpful to the Democrats as long as he can keep the TV idiots talking about it.

If I had fifty dollars, I'd bet it all on Gore not running. If I had a hundred dollars, I'd take you out for a steak and still have fifty bucks left to bet Gore ain't running.

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garybeck

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #6

13. He could take New York and MA

that's enough so that if it's close it becomes hard for either Dem or Rep to get a majority.

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Raine

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Sat Jun-23-07 03:08 AM
Response to Original message

8. and we know

how that would turn out. :banghead:

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KharmaTrain

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Sat Jun-23-07 03:59 AM
Response to Original message

10. Bloomberg Wouldn't Draw Flies....

First...whose gonna vote for him? Southern Racists? Yeah, right...they'll go running or the Jew to beat the black dude or the uppity woman. Yeah, right!

Next...who gives a shit about Bloomberg? He's got the charisma of a soap dish and no agenda...no cause other than he's rich and he's not Guilani. Not quite the siren call that will cause hearts to flutter.

Lastly, any third party that will emerge this year will be from the fringe right. That's where the malcontents are. They're the ones who want to build the electric fence along the border, continue wars for profit and create a theocracy...that's not Bloomberg. That's a Gingrich.

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oldgrowth

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Sat Jun-23-07 05:30 AM
Response to Original message

11. Bloomberg is pro Iraq war ,no time tables!!

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TwilightGardener

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #11

17. He is against time tables? I knew he was initially supportive of the war,

but lately not so much. Do you have a link?

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garybeck

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:13 AM
Response to Original message

15. if he won a state, could he give the electoral votes to one of the other candidates?

Let's say he wins one state, and that one takes the victory away from the Dem. Could he bow out, and forfeit the electoral votes from that one state to the candidate of his choice? Or what happens then, if he decideds he doesn't want his electoral votes?

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CK_John

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Sat Jun-23-07 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #15

18. Most states have a first ballot rule, that requires the electors to vote for the candidate.

If not settled on the first ballot then they can vote for others.

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