Marketwatch - IEA Sees Oil Supply Crunch After 2010

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil supplies will be tighter in coming years, with a "supply crunch" after 2010 as OPEC's spare production capacity evaporates, the International Energy Agency predicted Monday.
Supplies will tighten because economic growth will drive up demand and offset significant increases in oil-refining capacity, the IEA said, according to media reports citing the agency's annual medium-term forecast.
The IEA, which monitors energy markets for the world's 26 most-advanced economies, doesn't forecast oil prices, but its conclusions imply consumers should expect continued upward pressure on energy costs, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, See Wall Street Journal story (subscription required).
"Oil and gas price pressures look set to remain in the coming years," the IEA reported, according to the Journal. "Slower-than-expected (gross-domestic-product) growth may provide a breathing space, but it is abundantly clear that if the path of demand doesn't change on its own, it may well be driven to change by higher prices.".
The report comes as crude oil for August delivery settled Monday at $72.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. See futures movers
That price is close to the $77.03 nominal high reached nearly a year ago but still well below the inflation-adjusted highs reached 27 years ago, according to the Journal. Based on May consumer-price data in the U.S., a barrel of crude fetched $101.26 in April 1980 when adjusted for inflation, according to the report.
According to the IEA report cited by the Journal:

* Global oil demand is projected to expand 2.2% a year, on average, reaching 95.8 million barrels a day by 2012, up from 86.13 million barrels a day this year. The forecast is based on global economic growth of about 4.5% annually. Oil demand is expected to increase most rapidly in Asia and the Middle East.
* The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies more than 40% of the world's daily oil needs, will have little spare capacity left by 2012.
* Increases from non-OPEC oil producers and biofuel producers should start flagging after 2009.
* Natural-gas markets also will be tight because of inadequate supply increases, limiting the ability of consumers to switch between oil and natural gas.

Should GDP growth slow an annual 3.2% in the years to 2012, the need for OPEC oil would be reduced by some 2 million barrels a day, but that would merely postpone by a year the point at which demand surpasses the growth in global oil capacity, according to the report.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/iea-sees-oil-supply-crunch/story.aspx?guid=%7B0323178F-F858-4190-B51C-D50C28D160C1%7D
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Starting to see more and more of these articles in the M$M. Its coming...!

right on schedule.

That is a rather generous estimate as we can see the effects of post-peak kicking in on major wells and supplies across the globe. It is not about IF, but WHEN. And all this time we could possibly have used our "advanced" technology to veer off this course. The greed of those who subjugate and manipulate, combined with the unintentional ignorance of the masses who fell pray to it has led us to a point of no return. Other "civilizations" have risen and fell before us, so is this really big news, historically?

There is the geological science and the debate and controversy concerning that bleak event horizon where the black blood that flows through the veins of modern life bleeds out the wound of greed and ignorance. The arteries are starting to clog and circulatory system is closer to collapsing.

The thing is, it really is BETTER for you to NOT know this right now. There simply is no realistic and practical fix that can come at such a late time and preserve your way of life and the future you imagined. As you may or may not know, oil is so much more in your day-to-day life than energy/fuel, it is almost ubiquitous in its impact on what you have and want, right down to being able to live and survive at all.

Those who have the money and resources could probably do something, at least, to get out of the way before the fat lady sings. I mean, survival is a nice idea, and doing so with some comforts is preferable. However, before we get back to a smaller population with a tribal-like existence and more natural, Earth-based ways, there is most likely going to be quite an all out, knock-em, sock-em struggle for all kinds of resources first.

Best to ignore this stuff and enjoy the life you love and know day by day, for what it is worth in the moment. That's all you ever have anyway. Don't let it bring you down, (again, unless you are filthy rich and can do something really tangible about procuring your place in the order of survival at hand).

And yes, I do think we could have avoided this and made a better World that could have led to a very golden age. It was on the tips of our tongues and many minds grasped that fleeting thought. Space travel was not so far away and might have come sooner if war, dominance, greed, and manipulation had not taken a dispproportionate share of our capacity and resources.

The epitaph might read:
"We really came so close to something wonderful, but our tools far outstripped our own ability to use them properly and with any sanity or maturity in a larger sense! Those who rose to the top acted not in our greater interest, but as carnivores that proved our greatest faults when empowered with money and support. Perhaps it is better that this beast go back to the land and learn how to live at peace with nature. Then, someday, the Universe might welcome the naked apes."

and it sank like an anvil. Glad to see some discussion of it because I believe that Peak Oil makes Global Warming look like a nuisance.

Here is my LBN posting:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2909859&mesg_id=2909859