If the US were to begin a complete, one year, phased withdrawl from Iraq and

Flabbergasted

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Sat Aug-11-07 12:09 PM
Original message

Poll question: If the US were to begin a complete, one year, phased withdrawl from Iraq and

Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 12:14 PM by Flabbergasted

the UN and Miliki were to adopt an enhanced conciliatory role between waring tribes and neighboring countries such as is now happening

reference

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1565763&mesg_id=1565763

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1565662&mesg_id=1565662

Iraq would...?

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TexasProgresive

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Sat Aug-11-07 12:15 PM
Response to Original message

1. Depending upon the neighbors actions-

If the neighbors stay out of it-my guess is that there would be a period of civil war and a strong man, not unlike Saddam would emerge. But that is really unlikely as Turkey will move into norther Iraq to quell the Kurds and Iran will defact annex Southern Iraq. The Sunnis may turn to Syria for help.

It's really a crapshoot and I don't see a good solution.

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Flabbergasted

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Sat Aug-11-07 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. The Kurdish/Turkey problem would be difficult but I think a UN force in Northern Iraq

Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 12:54 PM by Flabbergasted

would keep the peace...Turkey would rather be left alone. Iran and Syria do not see any benefit from a failed Iraqi government. They will seek influence but it would benefit them to compromise especially considering Iran's economy is very poor. Iran would gain influence and smite the US by helping stabilize Iraq. I think we would see the Iraqi government stabilize within a year or two. Waring factions saw the economic advantages. This is a country that has been at war for 2 of the last 3 decades with Hussein's "peace" in between in which brutal sanctions were placed on the country.

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