Hurricane Dean becomes a Category 4 hurricane.

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Just in case.

Prime season (Katrina Aug 29) and right now there is nothing to disrupt it's growth.

:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:

Residents of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle all the way over to Corpus Christi, Texas should be monitoring Dean very closely.

I have a hunch this hurricane will make landfall somewhere between Houston and northern Mexico. We'll know for sure within the next two days.

Watching Dean and all the interaction response weahter around it! WOW! :wow:

And the prediction map

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W+gif/204026W_sm.gif

the Dimson. You know he hasn't heard about it.

He's probably passed out cold anyway.

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Either way, it's going to bring a ton of rain to a region that doesn't need any more than they've already had.

Houston is a prime target. Anybody from Pensacola to Brownsville and up to 100 miles inland need to be watching this VERY VERY closely.

One of the best sources of information at this early point is Dr. Jeff Masters's WunderBlog at WeatherUnderground.com (everything i read is underground!)

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The general consensus among the poster is that the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) projected path is slightly too much to the south, and the other models will soon reflect more of what the GFDL is saying right now. The GFDL model is second really only to the NHC's model, which they do not publish.

Some think that with the markets being what they were this week, there's no reason that the public would have to be scared by a map of a category five hurricane with possible record low pressure in the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico. Believe the conspiracy if you want - I don't. All those people investing in energy markets have their own effin meteorologists and forecast models for the markets, not just the satellite maps.

The GOM is extremely hot, if Dean desn't hit some land (Cuba or Yucatan), it will be sitting as a category five in the GOM by Tuesday morning. At that point the cone of uncertainty will be about 200 miles wide, and those folks within that cone MUST MUST MUST evacuate immediately.

IF this thing hits SE TX, it will cause disastrous flooding. Most of SE TX is way over its normal rainfall for the year up to now. Tropical Storm/Depression Erin saturated the runoff infrastructure, and the soil. It killed 5-10 people. That saturated soil will NOT hold the 25"+ that Dean could drop on it.

If it takes a more northerly track, and hits anywhere on the Louisiana or Mississippi coast New Orleans would likely be flood again by a storm surge and torrential rains/feeder band thunderstorms.

Now, I hope I'm wrong. I hope it gets blown out to sea, or hits Mexico as a Cat2 (though that would suck for them and I'd never wish it upon anyone.).

Any way you slice it, THIS IS NOT GOOD.

people waited until the last second and CLOGGED the highways with stalled cars. Had it hit all of those people trapped in their cars.... :scared:

were told to evacuate, it created an impossible situation for people in SE Texas trying to get out. Trips to Tyler and Dallas that should normally take 5 hours took more than 20. More people died from Rita evacuation issues than from the storm itself. :(

The only good news is that we're still 5 days out and that forecast will change many times between now and Wednesday.

I know NOLA is in worse shape, but there are still plenty of people in SE Texas and SW Louisiana who still have blue tarps on their roofs, and several who were recently kicked out of their FEMA trailers.

The storm continues to move dead west and appears that it will miss the next forecast point to the south. Obviously continue to watch it.

Also, for people in New Orleans. The chance of a NOLA impact has dropped from slim to almost none.

I fully expect it to begin turning more sharply northwest. Right now the track is based on a ridge of high pressure and the speed it's moving. The ridge of high pressure is supposed to weaken, so if it slows down, it won't reach the Yucatan Peninsula before it starts turning northeast.

Right now, based on the satellite imagery, it looks like the storm is going through an eyewall replacement cycle, as some of the "red" (coldest cloud tops signifying intensity) on the right site of the eyewall are becoming "yellows and greens" (warming). Of course, that's only temporary. Before today is over, those cloud tops will have replaced themselves, and it'll probably be a Cat 5.

Still, the most important thing is the speed that it's moving. If it slows down significantly, it will probably start turning northwest before it gets to the Yucatan.

The track right now is based on how fast it's moving right now.