Some advice for those planning on traveling during Thanksgiving....

...and the month of December.

I know it's August. I know it's 110 degrees in the shade, but if you plan on traveling on an airplane at the end of November and all of December I suggest you consider other options. Currently, it looks like there is going to be a severe shortage of pilot availability at the end of the year because pilots are going to be pushing up against the hard stop of 1000 hours of flying per year as per Part 121 regulations (these are the rules that govern airline operations). Moron, incompetent CEOs who have their collective heads up their collective asses know this, but refused to hire the requisite number of pilots necessary to meet Part 121 requirements. The result will be an incredible number of delayed and canceled flights during the busiest travel season of the year.

Prepare for this inevitability now.

It sounds like a very good reason to just stay home.

Driving wastes gasoline -- and can be dangerous if done during Winter weather.

Taking the train is inconvenient and expensive.

That leaves the bus.

Like I said, a good reason to just stay home.

I like that idea.

Enough so that I will not fly anymore unless I'm going overseas. I'm tired of being poked and prodded, have my shit rifled through and tossed out, all so that I can be packed into a tin box as tight as sardines and then have the great privelege of sitting on the tarmac for endless hours before takeoff.

I will now drive anywhere in this country, or take a train or even a bus:scared: before I fly in this country again. The only exception to that is with small planes. But the big commercial jets, no way in hell. Only if I'm going abroad will I fly, and maybe even then I'll go by boat.

All of this hypersecurity, the increasing breakdown of the infrastructure has all combined to make flying a nightmare. No thanks

Thanksgiving. But they're driving. Now all they have to worry about is the weather.

crisscross the country in comfort AND record time!

Oh... wait....

damn

However I will reserve the right to snicker self-rightously at all the trapped travelers, tho.

but bookmarked nonetheless

...at the 1000 hour regulations limit to force pilots to log more flying hours? In this case a national crisis that leads to jamming passengers onto fewer flights, adding more seats per flight and obtaining FAA approval for pilots to log in more flight hours. Remember what Ronald Reagan did to the flight controllers back in 1981 when they elected to go on strike for better working conditions and higher pay:

<snip>
Remarks and a Question-and-Answer Session With Reporters on the Air Traffic Controllers Strike

August 3, 1981

The President. This morning at 7 a.m. the union representing those who man America's air traffic control facilities called a strike. This was the culmination of 7 months of negotiations between the Federal Aviation Administration and the union. At one point in these negotiations agreement was reached and signed by both sides, granting a $40 million increase in salaries and benefits. This is twice what other government employees can expect. It was granted in recognition of the difficulties inherent in the work these people perform. Now, however, the union demands are 17 times what had been agreed to — $681 million. This would impose a tax burden on their fellow citizens which is unacceptable.

I would like to thank the supervisors and controllers who are on the job today, helping to get the nation's air system operating safely. In the New York area, for example, four supervisors were scheduled to report for work, and 17 additionally volunteered. At National Airport a traffic controller told a newsperson he had resigned from the union and reported to work because, "How can I ask my kids to obey the law if I don't?" This is a great tribute to America.

Let me make one thing plain. I respect the right of workers in the private sector to strike. Indeed, as president of my own union, I led the first strike ever called by that union. I guess I'm maybe the first one to ever hold this office who is a lifetime member of an AFL - CIO union. But we cannot compare labor-management relations in the private sector with government. Government cannot close down the assembly line. It has to provide without interruption the protective services which are government's reason for being.

It was in recognition of this that the Congress passed a law forbidding strikes by government employees against the public safety. Let me read the solemn oath taken by each of these employees, a sworn affidavit, when they accepted their jobs: "I am not participating in any strike against the Government of the United States or any agency thereof, and I will not so participate while an employee of the Government of the United States or any agency thereof."

It is for this reason that I must tell those who fail to report for duty this morning they are in violation of the law, and if they do not report for work within 48 hours, they have forfeited their jobs and will be terminated.

Q. Mr. President, are you going to order any union members who violate the law to go to jail?

The President. Well, I have some people around here, and maybe I should refer that question to the Attorney General.

Q. Do you think that they should go to jail, Mr. President, anybody who violates this law?

The President. I told you what I think should be done. They're terminated.

The Attorney General. Well, as the President has said, striking under these circumstances constitutes a violation of the law, and we intend to initiate in appropriate cases criminal proceedings against those who have violated the law.

Q. How quickly will you initiate criminal proceedings, Mr. Attorney General?

The Attorney General. We will initiate those proceedings as soon as we can.

Q. Today?
<MORE>

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan's_ultimatum_to_striking_air_traffic_controllers

There are some questions that occur to me.

A full-time work year is about 2,080 hours.

Three weeks of vacation is 120 hours.

So, a full-time pilot would work about 1,860 hours.

If a full-time pilot is only allowed to fly 1,000 hours, then what does the pilot do for the other 860 hours?

I'm not trying to be snarky, just to understand.

Not prep time or sitting-on-the-tarmac time. I may be wrong.

before flying to another. I don't think they count any time that is not airborn.

Are you saying that pilots get paid for sleeping?

...or as it's otherwise known, per diem. It ranges from $1.40 to $2.05 an hour while on duty.

As I mentioned earlier, a full-time employee works 2,080 hours a year (40 hours per week x 52 weeks).

Knock off three weeks (120 hours) for vacation, and a full-time employee works 1,960 hours.

If a pilot is restricted to flying 1,000 hours per year, then what does the pilot do for the remaining 960 hours per year?

If they get paid to sleep, then do they get paid their regular salary (the same salary they are paid while they are flying) plus the $1.40 to $2.05 per hour?

How many hours (out of the 960) do they typically get paid for sleeping?

Do flight attendants also get paid for sleeping while they are away from home?

Are flight attendants also restricted to 1,000 hours of flight time per year??

...that's his/her time off. Pilots in the past used to work two weeks out of the month (colelctively, four day trips). One of the attraction with being a commercial pilot flying for the airline is the amount of time off one used to get. That isn't the case anymore.

Which is why we will run up against the hard stop of 1000 hours at the end of November.

...which is also called block time (the time you leave the gate until the time you pull into a gate). But you're right, it doesn't account for the time a pilot checks in (show time).

... counts against the 1000-hour limit? Irony. There's a certain justice in that, for sure.

Exactly, Pilots check in for their flights up to an hour prior, maybe longer or shorter
they have the flight plan, weather, load, etc to deal with. :hi:

I'll bear this in mind. Mr. JulieRB travels for business; hopefully, he can get some of it rescheduled or otherwise delay till after the first of the year.

Julie

Not good news though.

I guess the Chinatown bus from Boston to NYC and then another one to DC is an option but that is a hell of a long ride

That's a bad ride if you live between Boston and DC :)

created equal. Some actually have their staff together, unlike NW.

...I work with pilots flying for the majors and the regionals and they know of what they speak.

The good airlines wouldn't get very far if this is how they planned things. Granted, they all have their problems, but pilots are not the problem with all airlines. Just sayin'...

...it's the management. Point in case, one major airline is trying to fulfill its schedule with 6000 pilots when it takes 10000. They are going to have a major problem at the end of November. Bookmark this thread and we'll see who's right later this year.

all in the same boat. Not true. That one airline has had problems all summer, towards the end of the month. I agree. They have recently hired more pilots, but they need to be trained, so I agree, they may have problems. Not so with all of them.

Having been involved with an airline for over a decade that did have management problems, the lack of them now is refreshing and appreciated.

...

Which ones, I know NW has a shortage, maybe DL and UA, but those are the only ones
that I know of............

....check out the latest edition of Aviation Week and Space Technology which wrote about one regional that was experiencing an attrition of 20 Captains/month for about a year. Currently, upgrade times are down to 18 months at some with minimums dropped to ridiculous levels. Since these airlines feed the hubs you can bet the SNAFUs will be extraordinary.

I am bookmarking this page to see if I'm right or wrong come the end of the year. My confidence is pretty high that I'll be right.

Regionals have always had a high turnover rate
True there is now a pilot shortage, and I wish I was younger and qualified I would jump
at the chance
Pinnacle is expanding, along with Mesaba, both NW regionals


I get Air Transport World every month, and have not noticed any article on the high attrition.

:hi:

...MRO issues. Most of the time the regionals don't register on their radar screen. At least that's my opinion.

...as a First Officer. I think they are anticipating the change to the age 60 rule.

Ordinarily we'd be forced to fly either out to L.A. or down to Ohio to hang with the aged 'rents, but this year, what with a little smoogatz due in late January, holiday travel of any kind is out. Which is good--I hate holiday travel. In fact, I concur with the other posters here who hate air travel regardless of the time of year. It really has become a near-punitive experience on most domestic airlines.

It takes a long time, but we can stop when we like, eat what we want, and HORRORS!!! we can have a cigarette when we like :evilgrin:..and we have a comfy new car, so it's the highway for us old folks..

No one to pat us down and take away our sodas, or herd us into an aluminum tube where we will be seated sardines style.

....but I would have used "Grouchy Old Bastards."

if the tickets she bought last week for Thanksgiving travel don't 'hold'.