Is there any real chance of a draft?

I was listening to NPR this morning and they were scaring the pants off me talking casually about the probability of a draft. I have a sixteen year old son and this whole subject scares me to death.

Is this a real thing? What are the odds that it could really happen?

I'm working on getting them all passports so that they could exit the country, if need be.

that we need to start attending the Buddhist services that are held in Charlotte on a regular basis. That way, if it came to it, he might have a chance of qualifying as a concientious objecter on a religious basis. I figured we would need to start now, before they actually start getting serious about a draft.

we are considering permanently leaving, to australia

I see a big push for a draft, but if I were the rats in the Admin, I'd do it more subtly. I'd make it so that there are no jobs available for young people other than the armed forces.

That would have the desired effect, and the people would be "volunteers"...unlike me, who is likely to shoot his "commanding officer"(aka jailer) in the back at first opportunity.

check.

But that isn't enough anymore. They need MORE CANNON FODDER for MORE WARS!

That's going to close a whole lot of businesses. Plenty of fresh blood who will join just to eat. I almost had to do that last year.

If, god help us all, there is a draft and again, god help us all, one of our kids gets sucked up, have he or she, go AWOL right away. There is a certain amount of time, before the military starts legal proceedings. I think it's 30 days, but this needs to be confirmed. Have he or she drafty, report back to the base on the day before the last day and state that they do not want to serve (add your own reason here).

The logic behind this is: people whom the military train are worth money to them. They last thing they want is someone that doesn't want to be there. They didn't invest any money or time, so they are more likely to cut them loose.

However, if you are someone that has a talent or ability that the military needs or wants, it becomes iffy there.

If you are already in the service and the military has spend a bucket load on training you, pilot, officer, etc, they will hunt you down and fry your ass.

The trick is, to find your son or daughter a safe place to hide until the turn themselves back into the base.

That's were things get really funky.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1624969

Better safe than sorry. Sign your sons AND daughters up today and start documenting.

Congress already caved in to AIPAC on Iran, Bush** can attack them any time he wants.

I expect that AIPAC is quietly lobbying for the draft now, so Bush** can keep his hands clean
and all of the electoral fallout lands on the Democrats.

San Francisco, LA, DC, New York, Chicago, ... etc.

Let's fight the draft over here so we don't have to fight it over there!

I really don't think they have the power anymore to stop it.

quadruple, at least. MILPERS appropriations would increase waaaay beyond that. The cost to the taxpayer would be monumental. A mandatory and persistent draft would be a non-starter with Americans on more than just the emotional front...it would hit them square in the wallets.

It was mostly the war that turned the record surplus that President Clinton left behind
into a deficit that dwarfs all of the other budget deficits in the past, combined!

Of course, billions lost to graft to Bush**Cheney's friends didn't help either.

They will just print more money.

You'd spend all your time training to replace the last guy, then be done with your term by the time you were getting competent. Repeat.

distributed learning. Most training done once a soldier hits the units is train-to-SOP, which addresses the peculiarities of a unit's warfighting strategy and not necessarily on the broader aspects of individual warrior skills.

Therefore, I don't think that what you say would be much of a factor, though an increased stream of FNGs would require units to reevaluate their reception and integration strategies.

Dubya can't activate it alone. Passing the draft requires the consent of Congress. You might say that they've caved on everything else, and while that may be true, this is a completely different case.

Why?

Much of what Congress has caved on comes down to things the average American wouldn't notice. They're too busy scraping out a living and taking care of their kids to think about stuff like attorney generals, FISA, etc. When you have the military basically enslaving peoples' families into service, that's when it hits home. You can't ignore that. This is the point when the constituencies revolt and the careers of those Congresspeople most certainly end.

Furthermore, the draft just wouldn't benefit the situation. Well-trained volunteer soldiers aren't able to maintain order in areas we're occupying. Imagine what would happen if you threw in a bunch of kids unsuited/unwilling to be there? Add in the all-time lows in terms of war popularity and you've got a recipe for chaos.

And the motivation is not there. i wouldn't count on a drqaft. Count instead on many more (foreign) "contractors" being paid lavishly at taxpayer expense to do the things American soldiers do out of duty to the Constitution. Only not as well, and not as reliably. After all, you can't point at an enemy occupied location and say "Take that thing no matter what!" to a contractor. if he doesn't like the job, he can just walk away. And go to work for the enemy, if he wishes.

The whole contractor mess is fucked up. But they won't do a draft. trust me. They are ALL ABOUT Public relations, and the PR on a military draft is just prohibitive.

Selective Service has already staffed draft boards across the nation. Right now, the draft boards are in a reserve state, with the board members working at other jobs, but if Congress and the President authorize a draft, those boards will be up and running in days, and people will start being inducted in a matter of weeks.

And today's draft will be a bit different than the Vietnam era draft. They'll draft both men and women, and they'll do a special skills draft, of people up to age 40 or so, who are known to have certain skills. They'll draft nurses and doctors, they'll draft engineers and computer programmers. They'll draft people who speak specific languages, and so on.

So even though I'm 34 and a software engineer, I could conceivably be drafted. If that happens, see ya in Canada...

The empty seats have long since been filled.

If the repubs win the white house and Congress in 08, perhaps. With a big loophole for the rich.

I think it is more likely that the military in the middle east is going to be replaced mostly by mercenaries. That way Bushco cronies get the $$$ and no one has to talk about the Army missing its goals. or its readiness.

They will probably stage some sort of incident to justify it.

So ask yourself, when was the last time Bush believed in taking responsibility for anything?

Until then, I would remain neutral on the issue.

another Reichstag Fire to pave the way for the Iran war, the draft, and everthing else they want to do.

... and you believe, as most do, that easily more than 66% of the nation's voters oppose activation of the draft, then you're claiming that we don't have a democracy or anything close to it. How can people stand back and merely engage in the superficials of democracy - kabuki - and believe that? Anyone who, in high dudgeon over the prospect of draft activation, claims or threatens more overt action in that event possibly hold such an opinion and not engage in such actions right now?

There seems to be a real disconnect. It seems to me that many folks have the very same "not me" attitude regarding both the draft and doing anything to take back our right to self-governance. Almost nothing I can think of demonstrates how we're not deserving of self-governance as much as that.

We've become a nation of cowards and outlaws ... hiding behind our pointing fingers. It's more disappointing than anything I've seen in our nation's history.

They'll make it look serious. They may even DO something serious and blame it on Iran.

Verified? We still can't verify much of anything about 9/11.



Looks like at least 66% oppose the FISA cave-in. 70% oppose the war. At least that many oppose war with Iran.
Looks like the 25%ers are getting their way on everything.



That will become evident within a few weeks, after Congress returns to session, and whatever "new products" the regime has waiting for us are "introduced".

It is entirely possible that after the introduction of said "new products", that we won't have anything even close to a democracy. The recent executive orders certainly point in that direction.



In the fading hope that it isn't completely dead yet.



It is likely that a few of those threatening overt action on such a public and traceable forum are working for the Man.



The prevailing attitude isn't so much "not me" as "not anybody". Bring the troops home.
For some, "Not me" is a refusal to participate in a war that was started under false pretenses and is in violation of international law.



We've been trying. We Protested. We thought electing a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress would make a difference and we actually did it.
We have been flooding them with mail, phone calls, showing up at their meetings and every other thing we know how to do. They sound good, and then
someone gets to them and they cave.

It isn't that we are not doing anything. Nothing works anymore.

It's between a "people afraid of their government" and a "government afraid of the people."

The former marks Nazi Germany, Stalinist USSR, Pol Pot's Cambodia, and even Franco's Spain. The latter seems to include France, Germany, Italy, and other more progressive countries.

We seem closer to the former than the latter. Far closer.

What're the chances Americans would work together enough to have a General Strike?
What're the chances that Americans would work together enough to leave their blood in the streets?


Unless and until those 'chances' get a LOT bigger, I don't see a change in my observation that things will get a lot worse before they get better.

There's far, far too much common motivation in both rejecting the draft (Universla National Service) and rejecting the notion of doing the above. We're too seduced to the "let George do it" kind of thinking, imho.

Democracy is a "Do It Yourself Project." We keep looking for 'handymen.'

I have never seen of heard of anyone opposed to both the draft (not the National Service figleaf, mind you, the draft) and to a General Strike.

NO universal service until regime change, and after that, no draft unless there's a real threat.

That's my position, and you can get all indignant and call me a 'gangaweed' if you like, but I recognize that as just simple-minded bloviation.

The odds are vanishingly small, unless we get attacked again on a much larger scale.

It seems to be considered political suicide to defy AIPAC.
AIPAC openly demanded that Congress continue to give Bush** a blank check to attack Iran.
Congress complied immediately.

Do you really think their plans for an Iran war do not include a draft?
Not just a little draft, more like a bloody hurricane.

"Just an air war", yeah, right. Does anybody really believe that?

All those guys in prison could be offered amnesty in exchange for military service.

No fuss, no muss, no draft riots.

And U.S. defense contractors and lobbyists will continue to suck up most of the money "for Israel." It's a huge fucking scam.

If they manage to stall on Iran until Clinton gets in, it would probably be just an air war, since she's not stupid enough to try a ground invasion.

What do you think happens in the Strait of Hormuz if we attack Iran?
Hope you like riding your bicycle, because there isn't gonna be any gas.
What do you think happens in Iraq if we attack Iran?
Our troops would be up Shiite creek.

All I'm doing is speculating what Clinton would do. I don't support any attack against Iran, so go argue with the voices in your head.

and if Hillary Clinton has also bought into the attack-Iran nonsense, we are so utterly fucked.

Sorry I got snippy there. :blush:

all Bush and Cheney have to do is start up another conflict, (which I believe they will) and then things will become so out of control that there will be no choice and that is what they want and I believe the DEms do also, that is why they are not stopping the occupation. They know that bush has destroy the troops and they are letting him...But,they don't realize what they will be in for in this country...

Take a deep breath.

War mongers to get more bodies to throw around. War haters/peaceniks, some seem to think that having a draft will somehow stop wars.

I feel differently and am fighting against it with all I have. VietNam ended the draft, not the other way around.

Do you really think the powers that be want conscripts? Most 18 year olds I know don't even want to GET OUT OF BED before noon on non-school days.

Do you think that the powers that be want to put guns in the hands of 18 year olds who would rather fight than give up their IPODS?

Here is what the result of the draft would be:

An Army that couldn't fight before 1pm because they didn't go to bed until 4am.
A Navy that would mutiny after 7 days at sea because that's how long most pleasure cruises last.
An Air Force that doesn't know how to fly its own planes because ya know, MATH IS HARD!
A Marine Corps that thinks the Halls of Montezuma is a place where you go have the squirts after visiting Tijuana.

Get real. The generals know that their ONLY source of dependable servicemen and women are VOLUNTEERS.

What time does your 16 year old son get out of bed on Saturdays? HE scares the powers that be.

this admin were allowed to invade another country right now and congress were forced to. Not likely as too many political ccareers would be ruined if they supported a bill instituting a draft. Even if there were a draft the first conscripts would be our 20 year olds, so all of your sons are out of immediate danger. If a draft were started up, both our boys and girls would be conscripted for a period of two years and even contentious objectors would be required to do alternate service.

n/t

the long answer is far more complex

Until after the bombing of Iran has begun and Russia and China Formally declare war on the U.S.