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I got a "DC is worse than Iraq" email at work just now. My reply involved facts.

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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:38 PM
Original message
I got a "DC is worse than Iraq" email at work just now. My reply involved facts.
My colleague at work sent round this forewarded email (he's an ex-Marine, and damn gung ho about it, but was also against the war.) It read:
> Regardless of where you stand on the issues of the U.S. involvement in
> Iraq,
> here's a sobering statistic...
>
>
>
> There has been a monthly average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of
> operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2,867 deaths
>
> That gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers
>
> The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. is 80.6 per 100,000 persons for
> the same period. That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot
> and killed in the U.S. Capital than you are in Iraq
>
> Conclusion: THE U.S. SHOULD PULL OUT OF WASHINGTON...


and I replied:
At the risk of sounding grim, the numbers here are a bit misleading.

Washington DC does not have a firearm death rate of 80.6 per 100,000 per year. In 2003 the deaths due to firearms in CD was 26.9 per 100,000 (http: //www.statehealthfacts.org/comparemaptable.jsp?cat=2&ind=113)

By the way, there were 195 homocides in DC in 2005. That comes out to a 35.4 manslaughter rate (which includes unintentional manslaughter). In comparison, Houston had only 16.3. (http: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate)

The 2867 US troops killed in Iraq killed in a 22 month period average out to 130.3 per month. Assuming there really were 160,000 troops in country during that time (the real number is a little lower than that) that means a death rate of 102.3 per 100,000 per year--or about four times higher than the DC death by firearms rate.

Except that the DC death rate counts civilians. If we count civilians killed in Iraq, then there have been 76,000 documented cases of Iraqis killed by violence in the last 4 1/2 years, or about 17,000 per year. For a population of 27million, than means 63.3 per 100,000 population, which includes the parts of Iraq like Basra and Kurdistan that the president keeps assuring us aren't very violent at all. Of course that's also counting bombs, RPGs and beheadings. I don't know if we keep stats on beheadings in Washington DC. I'm pretty sure there's not enough of them, however.

Of course if we just count US troops being killed in Iraq, that's like only counting cops killed in DC each year to figure out how big the violent death rate is. When you count metro police, US park police, and the Capital police force, last year all armed police forces in DC had a death rate of 0 per 100,000.

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ComerPerro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. lol, its completely debunkable even if you use low estimates of civillian deaths in Iraq
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Ilsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. Fabulous, Bucky, fab! I hope you sent it to everyone on that email list.
I'm not getting emails from RW relatives anymore as they don't have my address. But I suspect some DUers would love to copy your reply to use to refute the idiots.
:thumbsup: :kick:
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. "Reply all" is my friend
Of course last time I did a "reply all" fact check, I ended up not on speaking terms with a Republican colleague for about three months. I'm hoping a jarhead is made of sterner stuff.
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theredpen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. These are so easy to debunk...
I've actually gotten Freepers to back off the claims... on Free Republic.

That's right. These guys are in such bad shape fact-wise, you can now slap 'em around on their home turf. You have to be careful not to tip your hand, but damn is it fun.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. No, they're not
It took me 20 minutes on Google to get all the facts I needed and another 20 to compose the email. Fortunately as a government employee I have nothing better to do with my time than engage in academic number crunching competitions.
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theredpen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Kudos on the research...
I didn't mean to trivialize your excellent work. When I said "easy" I meant that the false claims are so clearly wrong that there isn't any room for debate once the established facts are on the table.
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
4. Woohoo! Ya done good!
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The Wielding Truth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. Hope this will be sent to the debunk discussion group. n/t
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
7. This OP is a model that could be duplicated and mass emailed to folks.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #7
19. We need to use this method of persuasion, a good test case would be SCHIPS
Everyone loves kids and doesn't want to see them die because of no health coverage. A good example is the Baltimore boy who died of an infected tooth. His six weeks in ICU cost $250,000
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walldude Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
8. Oh jeeze this stupid shit again?
Yeah lets reduce all the pain and suffering to a statistical joke. Good plan. :eyes:
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Oeditpus Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
11. I got the same e-mail a year or so ago
and tore it to shreds the same way you did — by googling actual statistics.

These things get forwarded exponentially until dog knows how many people believe the "80.6 per 100,000" that someone pulled right out of their ass. It's about as legitimate as saying "More people are killed in car accidents than by handguns, so let's ban cars."

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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Actually, about the cars...
There probably are few anti-automotivists on DU. We should respect our fellow liberals here.
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. Great response!
Calm and citing irrefutable facts! If the original e-mailer had any decency, he would crawl back under his rock in shame. Unfortunately, he probably won't.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
14. My reply-all response just got a reply-all response
Some goober I don't know (but who was on the original email circulation list) just wrote me, in "reply all" mode, to say (and I quote):
Interesting......

It is a WAR, there will probably be a few deaths. If
you don't like the e-mail the delete key works on most
computers.


"Probably a few deaths." God, what a knucklehead. I mean, duh, that was my point. I, of course, had to reply back to the goober (but not reply-all this time, because this shit could get old).

Larry, I liked the email, I just corrected a few facts.

I also am a big fan of the guy who sent the email. He's pretty pro-facts himself. Stubborn things.


Do you think I should have added a little smily emoticon?
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. What a lame response
"Sure my facts may be wrong, but you don't need to correct them just delete the e-mail and let everyone else believe the lies." Typical right-wing thinking, these people think it is ok for them to do a mass-mailing of material filled with lies, but they don't think anyone should have the right to correct their lies.
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Jokinomx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
16. Wow.... not very many people actually do their homework....
but you sure did. Thanks for sharing! Great job!

:yourock:
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ms liberty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
17. KR&B. Bravo! n/t
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
18. Hey, all that sense and logic will get you nowhere with the koolaid drinkers.
But a good response none the less.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
20. Pfft! don't you know facts are only for Democrats???
Jeez, what were you thinking? LOL
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
21. If one wants to compare Iraq to a part of the US
a reasonable comparison is the state of California, which is slightly smaller than Iraq with a slightly larger population, with a similar range of temperatures and rainfalls.

One can reasonably ask how Americans would react if (say):

* Canada had occupied California ever since invading the state a few years back

* several million Californians had since fled to the state to live in refugee camps in adjacent states

* a thousand new unclaimed bodies were appearing each month in the Los Angeles morgue,

* bombs exploded regularly in the state and the most recent truck bomb killed hundreds of Californians

* most Californians had water and electric service for only a few hours a day, after $100 billion had been spent "rebuilding" infrastructure

* and Canadians light-heartedly downplayed the situation by saying, "Heck, California's less dangerous than Saskatoon"
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