http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/08/national-intell.htmlABC News' Martha Raddatz and Luis Martinez reports: An advance copy of the National Intelligence Estimate titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability," concludes that there has been "some security progress" in Iraq, but that political reconciliation remains "elusive."
Some key quotes from the National Intelligence Estimate:
-Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months, but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.
-Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.
As for the fight against Al Qaeda, which the administration has been touting, the report says, "…the emergence of 'bottom-up' security initiatives, principally among Sunni Arabs and focused on combating AQI represent the best prospect for improved security over the next six to 12 months, but we judge these initiatives will only translate into widespread political accommodation and enduring stability if the Iraqi government accepts and support them. We also assess that under some conditions 'bottom-up initiatives' could pose risks to the Iraq government."
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