How do you think Iraq will eventually turn out?

10, 20, 50 years down the road.

Will the Iraqis settle their differences and become a democracy? Will it divide into three different states (Sunni, Shiite, Kurd)? Will Iran take over totally? Anarchy with each village having its own warlord? What are the most likely scenarios for the fate of Iraq?

and always unstable.

The Iran Iraq war isn't that far in the past. I don't think a satellite state would be accepted by the Iraqis much better than a US occupied Iraq.

I have no predictions to make - I just don't think this one is realistic, unless it is a by force scenario.

Times have changed.

There are ancient hatreds at work there, and Shi'a Arabs and Shi'a Farsi have a very long history of hatred. It means more than any commonality of religion.

Cautious cooperation between the two peoples is the best anyone on either side can expect.

As for the shape that region will take, it's anyone's guess right now. What I do know is that we have lost that war and when we finally leave, there will be a short paroxysm of violence as old scores are settled, and then they'll determine what they need to do. It's not our job. It never was.

... one part of that will ally with Iran. The other two parts will remain independent but with ties to other countries. The biggest problem will actually turn out to be the Kurds and some ongoing friction with NATO member Turkey that leaves more than a few other nations between a rock and a hard place in terms of who to support.

for Iraq and that the fight for an independent Kurdistan will ratchet up.

which will not be easy since the Sunni part of the country has no oil. The Sunni's will not settle for not getting any oil and so the battle will likely be about how much oil the Sunni's get. Once that is settled then you will have your three countries. I then think for years their will be conflict between the Sunni and Shiite's. I think the Kurds will do very well and build a great country. I don't think either of the other sects will care for the US but they will get rid of any Terrorists because they will want stability and to enjoy the oil profits. Either the Sunni's or the Shiites will align with the US and it will probably be the Sunni's because of Saudi Arabia. The Shiites will align with Iran.

Thats my guess as to what will happen.

They oppose it as strongly as they can. That said, they probably can't stop the Kurdish region of Iraq from breaking away to become an independent state. The fight will be to keep a part of Turkey from breaking away and joining with the former Iraqi Kurds' new nation.

IMO, Iraq will be eventually settle down into a partitioned country - or three countries.
This madness, effectively begun and perpetuated by the U.S., reminds me of Bosnia.
Iraq, like Bosnia will never be a peaceable region. There will always be rivalries. The oil rights will hamper any effective agreement on territory.
Clearly, no healing will ever begin until we leave.

Not my idea -- I heard something this morning on npr. It was about a rugby match and all the teams were from countries that had been British colonies. The comment that I remember was that when colonial powers entered a country, they turned the inhabitants against each other, let them fight it out, and cleaned up the pieces. Sounds familiar. Remember, the real purpose for our presence in Iraq is the oil.

Wal-Marts and McDonald's as far as the eye can see.

And after the real America collapses, maybe they'll give us a hand.

and ask the US to leave and ask for an international peacekeeping force in.

just like Saadam. He will keep the peace by murdering those who express any disagreement with him, but the upside will be that the Iraqi people will have electricity, potable water and various other modern conveniences. He will allow foreign corporations to steal all the oil revenues they can get their hands on.

One day, he will piss us off for some reason. The CIA will topple his regime and he will be hanged in the public square for his "crimes". Rinse & repeat...

and pieces.

the empire builders and colonizers, peopled with wandering nomadic tribes fighting each other over something that no one remembers.

But, I'm a pessimist today.

It will remain a land of mass graves and lost lives with all the oil sucked dry while the people try to carve out some sort of meager life .

We may install another dictator and probably keep the permanent bases there for another 20 years .

I doubt the plans this admin has for Iraq will end anytime soon .

You also have to consider the massive amounts of depleted uranium spread out all over their land and what effects this will have no matter what else happens this problem is there to stay for thousands of years to come .

It will take decades to even rebuild Iraq to a livable country even for just pure survival . I can't imagine what it must look like there because we have never seen the smallest picture of the destruction 4 years has caused .

in 50 yrs, Iraq will no longer exist. It will be divided up between surrounding countries like Syria, Iran & Saudi Arabia. Hopefully by then it will not matter and the US, along with other industrialized countries, will no longer have a strong need for their oil.

But more than likely everything will just go straight to hell because of warmongering, imperalistic, corperatist, greedy politicans.

:shrug: