Why The Repukes Are Sooo Screwed In '08

I believe that almost any Dem can and will beat the tar out of any Repuke candidate. I mean who do they have? Guiliani? The more the base learns about him, the more they abhor him. McPain? The guy is guaranteed to explode. His control over his temper is notoriously weak, and the base doesn't like him much more than they do Rudy. Enthusiasm among repukes is strikingly weak. Enthusiasm among dems, contrastingly high.

If Guiliani or McPain manages to get nominated, social conservatives will flee en masse. More, I believe, if it's Rudy, than McPain but either way, significant numbers won't vote. If Duncan Hunter or Brownback gets nominated, Independents will back away. Sure, there could be some darkhorse candidate, but that's not likely. The system almost requires getting in by, at the latest, spring of this year.

I don't think the red state/blue state split will be of such importance in '08. Some states, like Iowa, Colorado and Ohio are trending blue. Nor do I think that the repukes stand a chance at painting the dems as responsible for the debacle of Iraq. That's firmly attached to bush and thus the repuke party.

Republicans, particularly the base, are clearly disheartened- you should see poor old rimjob's plaintive screed over in freeperville, in which he bemoans the downfall of the repuke party.

So, barring something truly extraordinary, I can't see the repukes holding on to the WH, and I certainly don't see them taking back the majority in either House.

:toast:

and right back at you!

payback's a twitch yanno?

:evilgrin:

I would agree that each of the 3 Republican frontrunners have handicaps

- McCain - Suseptible to claims he is a Washington insider, the past generation and as you state, has personal issues with anger and control, something we should all be concerned about in a President

- Guiliani - Not conservative enough for the hardcore base with his legacy on issues such as gun control, gay rights and abortion.

- Romney - Pro is his position as a Washington outsider. Con is the fact he is a Mormon. Many in his party don't consider the Mormons Christian and that would hurt him either by people who won't back in him a primary or would stay home in a general election

But let's be clear, the Republican machine is well-oiled, strong and steady. They are great organizers, pros at fund raising and good at keeping on message.

While I agree they are highly vulnerable I make no predictions. Things could spiral out of control in the Middle East with the U.S. embroiled in a near-war with Iran, Lebanon splitting apart in a renewed civil war and Israel and the Palestinians in constant strife. These should play to the Democrats favor but the Republicans are masters at crafting a message and executing. The Dems must do better at this.

(of course that didn't stop me), I disagree with you about the repukes being masters at crafting a message. I think they're given way too much credit on that. They certainly didn't do very well in that regard in '06. Furthermore, I can't see the big rifts in the repuke pary being healed within the next 6 to 8 months- and that's really all the time they have to do it.

own the media.

Watch for the Republican nominee to be touted as strong on security and the Dem nominee to be touted as fluffy soft marshmellows.

... I like to be optimistic, and I do think circumstances are one our side for a change, but a political campaign is like a football game to me.

A team can lose a huge lead in the 4th quarter by simply making a couple mistakes, an interception (say something stupid in a debate and hand your opponent a victory), an injury (someone on your campaign does something stupid), a penalty (something from your past is drug out and spun into relevance) or any number of other misevents.

The game isn't over until it is over. Frankly, each of the big 3 Dems have already made significant campaign mistakes. The Republicans are MASTERS at capitalizing on mistakes. They will all have to get better if they expect to win.

he will appeal to the same people as hillary . the senate is a lock if the democrats take the whitehouse but it will be close if a republican takes it.

bushco is defiantly acting against the wishes of the voters (per the midterms) and doing so aggressively and placing congressional (and future GOp nominees) in the box of "party loyalty" (to bush - as bush has none to party) OR going lone wolf (defy the bushco) and face isolation backlash. Almost like a political form of ROve/bushco forcing GOP in congress and nominees to walk the pirates' plank. At this moment in time, it is hard to imagine the electorate flocking to any GOP nominee with the exception of Hagel - and Hagel won't be able to get through the GOp primaries.

I tend to think actually that the 08 Repub candidate will be some dark horse like Brownback, since right now, public exposure is a negative for them. Even so, virtually every Republican who has a prayer of making it through the primaries is also strapped to Iraq like it's a megaton bomb.

and now they pay for it.

Bush has been systemically destroying America and the GOP since he took the Oval Office in 01.

The Pubics wil lose their Power in 08 if not already.

Cali...a very good post! The corporate media obsesses about the Democratic primary a year before the first primary vote is cast and with a party that has it's act more together now than it's had since FDR. The destruction that is georgie boooosh will take a big toll on his corrupt and inept party...it already has and will get worse.

If McCain and Rudy are the best they have to offer, not only will virutally any Democrat beat them soundly in the general election (many "social conservatives" sitting home) or I predeict even more fun.

If there's ever been time for a third party to emerge it will be next year. As Rudy, Mittens & St. McCain aren't "conservative" enough for some, the alternatives...Brownback, Tancredo and Hunter will pander to the racists, homophobes and the "true believers". If it's not disgust with "illegal immigration" then it'll be how boooshie and the GOOP sold them out on abortion or didn't cut their taxes enough...those natives are restless.

I'm watching Gnewtie these days...many on the Repugnican side think this shithole is the "savior" like he was in '94. He's their Al Gore (hardly a worthy comparison, but one I heard on a hate radio show the other day) and could step into the race this fall or even early next year and really shake things up. Or, I wouldn't put it past Gnewtie or one of those other candidates who will surely get "jobbed" by the party establishement and try a 3rd party run.

The outlook for the House & Senate get bleaker with every bomb that goes off in Baghdad and the longer this illegal invasion continues. Here's hoping the Democrats will get the votes to put the brakes on this runaway regime and their bloodlust...and if not, take regular votes, like the one taking place on Friday...and repeatedly forcing Repugnicans to go on the record about their support for this mess and to defend it.

The only way Democrats can lose is how they always lose...by overestimating a very weak opponent and fighting among ourselves.

I agree that in the past, dems have often been their own worst enemy, but I view this upcoming election in much the same way as 1976- Americans are disillusioned and disgusted by the repukes, and with investigations and more appalling crap revealed, I suspect that disgust will grow even greater.

So, I'm not as concerned about the electability factor in deciding which candidate we should nominate as some Dems are.

Just listen to their current whining points for a sense of the desperation that grips these sore losers.

Go ahead, righties, keep speechifying about how the Democrats (and 70% of the American people) are "emboldening the enemy". Keep whining that the non-binding anti-surge resolutions in Congress are somehow both ineffective and meaningless and presage the downfall of civilization.

And by all means, have Dick the Prick Cheney continue making increasingly bizarre statements about our overwhelming success in Iraq!

The Republicans continue to dig their own grave each and every day. I don't see how another Republican will be elected to anything anywhere, any time soon. And boy, how richly they deserve marginalized status for their explicitly un-American words and deeds! We the people are sick of the BS. RIP, Republican party. Not.

their attacks in the house and senate on these resolutions are going to come back to haunt them.

their seats will be at risk as the Dem candidate beats the pants off of the voting machines and whoever the GOP puts up as presidential fodder.

Hillary getting the nomination

that's all it would take for repukes to turn out en masse and vote for anyone with an R next to his or her name

imho

Until November 2004, there was at least one "Bush is toast" thread per day (on average) on DU.

I mean, we were up against a candidate that is a piss-poor public speaker, has little intellectual curiousity, if any, lied us into a war, didn't protect America on 9/11, turned a huge surplus into a huge deficit while driving down wages across the nation, etc, etc.

Yet, we still lost.

And, yes the election was stolen - but, the fact is that it was close enough to steal when it should have been a landslide for our side if we ran Donald Duck.