It's premature to declare victory because of the civil war?

We Won, Or We Think We Did

Some good news:


Oh, wait, there's always a next phase:


What only I and my dear readers seem to understand is that even if we find the pony in Iraq we aren't leaving. Everything is designed to ensure we stay.

"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks." Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Three Sunni tribal activists killed in Iraq attack

49 minutes ago

KIRKUK, Iraq (AFP) - A gun attack on Monday on a convoy of Sunni tribal members spearheading the fight against Al-Qaeda in Iraq's central Salaheddin province killed three people and wounded five, police said.

The attack occurred at the town of Hawijah, about 55 kilometres (34 miles) west of the northern oil city of Kirkuk, said Brigadier General Sarhad Qadir of the Kirkuk police.

"Three members of the Salaheddin Awakening were killed and five others wounded in the attack," Qadir told AFP.

"They were making a trip to Hawija to encourage locals to fight against Al-Qaeda when they came under small arms fire," Qadir said.

He said the Salaheddin Awakening members were about to enter a village where they were to address locals on how to counteract Al-Qaeda activities when their vehicles came under attack from gunmen in a car, which then sped away.

Members of the Salaheddin Awakening Council have come under attack a number of times this month, with a roadside bomb near the city of Samarra killing the leader of the council, Sheikh Maawia Naji Jebara, and wounding his deputy Sheikh Sabah Mutashar al-Shimmary, on October 4.

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Militants mortar Polish bases in Iraq

By Aseel Kami
1 hour, 24 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Gunmen launched simultaneous mortar and machinegun attacks on two mainly Polish military bases in southern Iraq on Monday, after Shi'ite militants vowed to step up pressure on Polish soldiers to force them out.

An official at a hospital in Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, said two children under the age of 10 had been killed in the mortar attack and three -- a 15-year-old and two 17-year-olds -- had been shot dead.

On Sunday Reuters obtained a copy of a video in which two previously unknown Shi'ite groups claimed responsibility for recent attacks on Poland's ambassador and its embassy and warned Polish troops to leave Iraq "before you drown in its swamp."

About 900 Polish troops, part of the U.S.-led multinational forces in Iraq, are based in Qadisiya province to support the 8th Iraqi Army division and train Iraqi soldiers and police.

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In other words, officials admit that it's inadvisable to say outright that we've defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq, even if we have, because then when there are more attacks and deaths, George Bush and John Boehner and Joe Lieberman's campaign to convince us that Al Qaeda is our main enemy in Iraq will be revealed as the pristine bamboozlement it's always been. And everyone will have to admit that there's a civil war going on there.

Remember, these good people have been telling us that they believe the main reason we're in Iraq is because we must defeat Al Qaeda, lest global catastrophe ensue. Here's John Boehner last month, equating the defeat of Al Qaeda with the achievement of Middle East stability:


And here's Joe Lieberman a few months back, saying that Al Qaeda is Enemy Number One: "But honestly, who are we fighting there? We're fighting al Qaeda and Iran." There are other multiple examples of this, of course.

Okay, so if the belief of some generals that we've defeated Al Qaeda becomes publicly accepted reality, then what will these worthies say? When the next attacks and deaths happen, what new rhetorical scheme will they concoct to pretend that American troops aren't caught in the middle of a civil war?

It'll be amusing to see how they handle this one.

Three journalists killed in Iraq

Iraqis on Sunday gather at the scene of a weekend truck
bombing that killed 17 people, police said

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Two local journalists and a Washington Post reporter were shot dead in Iraq on Sunday.

Tikrit police said two journalists working for a local newspaper were killed in an ambush between Tikrit and Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Three security guards were wounded in the ambush.

Salih Saif Aldin, a 32-year-old Iraqi reporter working for the Post, was shot and killed in the southwestern neighborhood of Saidiya, the paper reported in its Monday editions.

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The newspaper said he had taken a taxi from the Post's office to the neighborhood "to interview residents about the sectarian violence there between Shiite militiamen and Sunni insurgents."

The paper reported that "two hours later, a man picked up Saif Aldin's cell phone and called a colleague at the Post to say he had been shot." He was shot once in the forehead, the paper said.

The area where the reporter visited had been dominated by the Mehdi Army, the militia of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and police believe he was killed by Sunnis aligned with the "Awakening Council" -- the anti-insurgent tribal forces working with the United States, the paper reported.

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