The situation with Turkey really is worse than it appears.

SO - again - if anyone here gets wind of American pullouts at the Ankara air base, please post what you know here. It is our most visible presence - not withstanding the fact we have other bases there.

I guess many of you figured this out - in case you didn't - If it comes to an invasion from the north - and it probably will at this point, and the people do rise with the PKK, which they almost certainly will in the face of an invading army - The units protecting those oil field around Kirkuk - all Kurdish - will have to go north to protect actual people.

Cause if these things do happen, are allowed to happen - it will create a very powerful power vacum right in the middle of some of the largest oil fields (reserves) in the world. It will get filled - that is a fact.

If you think there was a problem in Iraq so far, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Why are the PKK agitating on the border? They want this fight, don't they? How stupid.

Make a deal here B*sh!!! Don't be such an idiot.

Joe

They have a logistics and air transportation command there.

Are you thinking of Incirlik in Adana (southern Turkey)? The NATO facility with a large US component?

Where are the most people that will see the departure?

There have to be contingency plans in place now in case air space will be closed. The army would absolutely be thinking this way. They are fairly competent.

Isn't the base in Adana pretty isolated? I don't know the geograhhy of Turkey that well, but I am sure most of the reporters are based in the capital.

Joe

We use Incirlik in Adana, down south.

I don't have any knowledge of where exactly - I don't. But by treaty we have to cover the capital - and I am pretty sure, if that is where the reporters are, that is where they will see the over flights.

I said American planes - I shouldn't say that - lets say NATO planes.

Joe

If they cut their airspace - we pull our expensive assets out. A warning.

If they close their airspace - anything north of Turkey we may need will be cut off.

I think it will be visible over the capital - as you point out, they may be able to avoid that detection.

Joe

I assumed the pull out will be noticed over the capital - could be a false assumption -
DO you have an opinion where a pull back would be most visible?

South I suppose - I don't trust the Kurd papers anymore - too "nationalistic" now.

Joe

have no "early warning" system. I thought we could get that. This is going to go off when it is too late.

Maybe some smart people will see this pull when planes start leaving the bases for no apparent reason - then I think of the quality of journalisim - and I think - fat chance.

I think the only deal point we can give that might at least delay this - is to move some American soldiers up toward the border. There are looking for commitment - not bullshit. Negotiate the smallest possible number - that is your postition B*sh. Make a commitment - they are looking for commitment If you - that is how deals work, you idiot.

If you signal you will not send anything but a few F16s - what would you do if you were them?

They have some F16s.

Make a deal asshole. You are tempting fate here.

Joe -

"Why are the PKK agitating on the border? They want this fight, don't they? How stupid."

Turkey is making strides to better its Kurdish human rights record to appease the EU, and the Kurds, already nursing a nascent autonomous region since 1991, now have representatives in Baghdad and have the chance for the first time in decades to make solid political gains. They're "the nice part of Iraq" and they could actually try to consolidate their power over Kirkuk and the oil fields; the ball is in their court.

Or they can throw it all away with a good ol' fashioned armed insurrection. Hell, look what it's done for the Palestinians! :sarcasm:

Sunday - every one started with a rebel Kurd force attacking north - not Turkey coming south. That is why I say that.

Joe

They won't take a chance that their own airspace could be used to transport supplies or weapons to the people they are trying to knock out, and they won't chance air support firing on their own troops while invading Iraq.

I think Joe is right that the US Military has already considered this, and they are not about to get their aircraft pinned down there. They will pullout of the Turkish airbases in advance of the closure of that airspace, and that will be the canary in the mineshaft.

IF the Kirkuk oil fields are left unguarded for even a short amount of time, you can expect them to be attacked, and that is going to set off unpredictable retaliations.

This entire situation seems to be barreling out of control behind a MSM blackout to the US.