Global Warming Data Collection: How late are the leaves turning colors where you are?

"Tipping Points". Apparently, the macro-environment, like so many biological processes (and biological techniques, for that matter) operates on The Titration Principle.

NOTE to those who know about titration and buffering, skip right to the paragraph immediately following the standard base-acid titration graph.

Titration, for those who don't know, is the act of gradually increasing the concentration of a given chemical (for the purposes of our conversation, we'll say acids and bases) to create a change in given buffering conditions.

In nearly all buffered systems (buffering being the process by which changes are resisted by a chemical solution, environmental system through buffering components in that system) there is a "tipping point" at which the buffering capacity is maximized and outstripped, therefore leading to fast changes in the system.

Looking at someone adding acid to a basic solution in tiny parts until the buffering capacity is reached and the pH crashes looks like this.



Now, looking at one environmental regulatory system which likely provides buffering capacity in terms of global warming, looks strangely like a titration curve getting ready to steeply plummet, it's buffering capacity exhausted.



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Ok, so there's the background. What does this have to do with leaves changing colors and when?

Because where I live, every year before this one, no matter the yearly variances due to rainfall or temperature, 100% of the leaves were ON THE GROUND by about two weeks ago.

As I gaze at the forest and undergrowth near my home, which by this time would be leafless and "see-through", is still mostly green, with maybe 30% of the species of trees and almost none of the ground cover having changed colors yet. And November is nearly upon us.

The plants have recognized what people refuse to, the environments we now live in, in many ways, are the environments that were a hundred or more miles south of us just two decades ago.

Yes, I am well aware that there will be exceptions. There almost always are, when biological processes are involved, but the trend and data seems clear.

So I am asking DUers (those for whom the question is relevant) what is the status of the turning of your leaves? Are you seeing a "big breakthrough" of previous norms, as I am? Or is the variance too small to make a conclusion? Or is there no major variance in time-frame and the leaves have turned within their customary time frame as observed?

And yes, I am aware that a collection of personal anecdotes do not constitute scientific data, but I'd like to get a sense of where we are nationally.

Driving on Long Island yesterday, we noted only a few maples had begun to turn.

some are now beginning to change, but I don't remember it only beginning it's process, this late. Usually, in two weeks or so from now, our trees would be bare. Most are still green. My marigolds started re-blooming late September, just when they usually slow down, not pick back up. I had a tiger lilly present herself two weeks ago. (Never saw that before in my life!)

Everything is lush. We've had so much rain this year, it's been extremely beautiful I have to say. I watered my lawn once or twice this entire year. Additionally, I think the cool August we had and warmer October has a lot to do w/ knocking this all out of balance.

how weird is that??? I've got leaves falling all over the place here at home for the last few weeks. but i took that bus tour around Manhattan last tuesday and central park was pretty near solid green.

my high school science teacher told us Pennsylvania would have a climate similar to Miami in 30 years. Back then, we thought he was looney.

I thought it was cool. What a fool, LOL! Never realizing back then, what it actually meant.

I hated Pennsylvania winters!

Of course, I could be using overoptimistic models like IPCC did, ignoring tipping points and the behavior of buffers of all kinds, and it could be that PA will be like Miami in less than a decade.

I suppose after the last seven to twelve years, nothing should surprise me, anymore.

But right at this second, the idea of PA with the environent of Miami within 5-10 years seems a bit excessive. Not that we won't eventually get there. Humanity will seal our own fate when we drill up all the arctic oil and gas that was made available to us by Global Warming.

By vaporizing ancient polar jungles into the atmosphere, we insure that polar jugnles will one day thrive again.

but he was able to see the effects of climate change in a time where very few people were able to see it.

People have been beaten & murdered for this, in mnay times and nations throughout history.

It is a practice which I believe will be rising and rising as Amerika accepts it's New Totalitarianism and the American personality is further reengineered to match the 1937 German personality in all areas except overt racism and violence. Jus afflict we Imperial Subjectsof Amerika with true discomfort or major economic downturn, and the fig leaf which has covered Amerika's mental conversion (still not complete, but well along now) to the unquestioning followers of tyranny, will fall away.

How's that for a prediction, though not particularly relevant to the topic at hand?

The Ginko biloba trees and liquidambers typically turn in December or January. I haven't been up in the mountains to look at the sycamores or aspens.

Most of our native oak trees are evergreen.

Kidding aside, I will say that I was in Germany in late September, and the leaves were definitely turning there then -- some still green, but many red and yellow.

n/t

but I figured I'd mention my German trip for what it's worth.

but they've just hit and passed peak this past week. So a little late. I did notice they were turning later than usual.

From what I heard on the tube, that's about a month late for us. I never remember the dates but I know I'm usually not plucking green peppers off the plants a week before Halloween. The Maples have turned color and are losing their leaves, but there are many trees that are still as green as they were during the summer.

some of our trees are loosing leaves without much color change though

Is it an area that is partiuclarly drought-stricken?

I have observed that drought conditions push the color-change and falling of the leaves earlier in the year.

To the person who voted the leaves changed early, can you give us an general idea of where you are?

We've only just started to have frosty mornings, about two weeks late I think. We moved across town this summer, so my usual gauge (how many leaves were on the lawn) has changed. I *think* the leaves are a bit later. That said, they seemed to start changing MUCH earlier! We had the first color at the end of August.

October was much warmer than usual. I think paying attention to temperature trends might be a more telling way to look at things, since leaves are prone to sudden whims of weather.

Look at the graph of the ice anomaly. Does it go strictly in one direction? No, nor does any (or almost any) human endeavor or natural/biological process.

What we are seeing this year, I believe, goes well beyond seasonal variations. Besides, drought makes leaves turn and fall EARLIER, which makes this trend even more disturbing and makes the crosing of the "tipping point" potentially that much more forceful.

I also realize that global warming is more effectively monitored by looking at temperature, butt hat has nothing to do with my main point, either.

Sorry. You swung and missed twice. Apologies if that offends.

Length of light is the main trigger for fall color. That's not going to change. And as you said, drought conditions can hurry the process along, as can wind, and if we had a slightly cooler than normal fall, but no freeze, we would also have a late leaf-drop. An early frost, followed by record heat (and some climatologists are predicting *earlier* and more erratic frosts as climate change progresses) would give an early fall.

You know what: if the fires in California didn't jolt people into caring about climate change, shit, if KATRINA didn't, I don't see how some extra pretty leaves will.

(And I confess: I want to ENJOY the view from my back window, damn it.)

Its a difficult metric to use over parts of the southeastern United States, the critical drought conditions has caused many trees to change colors much earlier than usual this year because of water-limiting factors, some trees started to brown in late August.

stock in what is happening to the leaves this year. There is a lot of year to year variation. Yes leaves are staying green longer this year in Maryland where I am. But next year - who knows, we could get a hard frost the first of October or before and the leaves could all turn by the beginning of the next week - then the global warming skeptics will be saying "See!". We can't make judgements about trends based on one season of one year.

However, observe my two graphs in the OP above. This, like the 2002-2007 Artic Ice Anomaly Data, is but one point in what may be (OK, I will confess I believe this to be at least 70% likely) "tipping point" such as those seen in titration curves of various chemical and biological processes.

No one knows what exactly the future will bring, but the TRENDS are becoming more defined as we get those "span of time" data points such as the ones shown in the Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly Data.

That is my only point. That and to collect a little anecdotal "data" about this phenomena around the country.

I guess what I am saying is let's not fall into the trap of using current weather patterns to try and make the case for global warming - we need to look at long term data.

The few colored leaves are dull and beige-ish.

No rain, no pretty colors. :(

Leaves turn colors in the fall because of shorter days - I.E. less sun light. It has nothing to do with temperature. Look it up.

always fall at the exact same time (or with very tight "error bars" and variance)?

If this was fully true, then why do 50% of the people in this poll report leaves turning and falling at least two weeks later than they have EVER (and some of us DUers are middle-aged or old, which means some of thos votes liekly carry a lot of "span of time" experience)?

If it is strictly a function of light and daylength, how would it ever be possible for the time in which leaves fall to EVER be very much different from the other?

I am sorry, but in science we all "attack" each other's hypotheses because defending them make the hypothesis stronger.

And of course, if a hypothesis is faulty, it cannot be defended and it withers away.

For the time being, I am not going to look anything up and waste my time. Explain it to me as a plant biologist would. Please answer my questions for if you cannot, then it is certain that your hypothesis is faulty (i.e. you are misreading or misquoting the science, or perhaps going off of old science since superseded).