For those of you that think the economy is teetering on the edge....A question;

What do you hear outside your door in the morning?

If you listen carefully, do you hear the hum and rush of cars? Most that live in or near suburbia will say yes. You have to be pretty far out in the country to not hear a low background hum of traffic.

If you are convinced that the economy of the United States is headed for a dramatic crash, is it your honest opinion that you might wake up in the very near future and not hear anything?

That hum and rush is the sound of your neighbors DRIVING CARS ON THEIR WAY TO WORK.

If you are convinced that we are headed off the cliff, do you honestly also think that noise will stop?

My opinion? It won't stop. Not by a long shot. If anything the noise will slowly get quieter not because volume is reduced, but propulsion systems will change. Day to day life will continue, and as NanceGreggs so eloquently put it, this difficulty WILL END.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed today at 13,042.74.

12 months ago today it closed at 12,103.30

The wise person plans prudently and rationally. If you arent in a soup line this week, chances are you won't be in one next week either. Or next month. Or next year.

And soon George Bush will be a dark spot on history.

There are no h1-b visas. Companies are not laying off."

Sure. Riiiight.

You presume i am telling myself something.

Where, pray tell, did you glean that from my post?

Now, what ARE we going to do about those asteroids that NASA doesn't have the money to track? (Heard on ABC News tonight. Story search goes here.)

world"

no business ever grows and hires more people than it did last year, and you can stay in your self-inflicted misery forever.

But should another disaster occur, we could be in the same boat as many people are. Jobless, w/o money to buy gas, food, pay the mortgage, etc. When I read weekly of thousands of jobs being shut down in different industries, what are those people doing now?

Life hums on, but I think the warning is to beware should it stop, and how anyone might handle that.

I hope you're right. I think you probably are, but I do think we're in for a rough time economically speaking. Still, hysteria never helped anything, and cheering for economic disaster is a fucked up thing to, because it affects real people.

(and happily, i've lived in the country for years, and don't hear cars)

All these youngsters forget that it was pretty shitty during the Nixon era, with the acid rain, the rusty cars, the pissed off people....and got worse during the Ford "Whip Inflation NOW!!!" era, where Navy personnel had bumper stickers that said GO NAVY!!!!!!!!! GO HUNGRY!!!!!!!!! Carter got stuck dealing with that shit--the "turn down the heat, wear a sweater" theme (and some people got PISSED about that--what, no eighty degree home in winter?) and the odd/even gas lines...

It's been shitty before. We came out of it. I see no reason why we cannot so do once more.

you can tell.

there is about 1/3 less cars on the road. the freeway still hums but with a lot less traffic but because the cars a going faster it is still as loud....

at least 2011, Boeing is not going to lay off 20 or 30 thousand people.

Sorry, but Boeing is not a very good example.

Ditto GE.
And since you live in Seattle, i am curious if you actually believe what you wrote. ONE Third less cars? Really? I WISH there were 1/3 less cars on the road around here.

The markets are a reflection of Federal Reserve measures in combination with the sophistication of investors, price to earnings ratios and hunches.

The economy is a completely different matter.

We have gone from being the greatest creditor nation in the world to the largest debtor nation.

If China sneezes, we will get pneumonia. Our buying power had dropped more than thirty percent in the past fifteen years.

A million dollars used to be a lot of money when I was a kid in the 80s and even early 90s. It is nothing anymore.

And we just wasted more than a trillion dollars on a war, killing people who did nothing to us, in exchange for nothing, not even oil.

And if we attack Iran, get ready for seven dollar to ten dollar per gallon gas. And the price of petroleum not only influences the cost of gas, but the cost of anything produced with plastic or transported, period.

And the destruction of the environment is pushing up the costs of even healthy things like produce, plus the additional cost of transporting them because of the escalation in petroleum costs.

Plus the chronic health issues that are the result of pesticides, plasticizers, overworked people who have no energy left over to take care of themselves or exercise or eat properly. That equals diminished longevity and decreased productivity.


And watch discretionary income this holiday season, and then watch what happens when the adjustable rate mortgages adjust right after New Years.

We are not only in dire straits, but have been in dire straits for some time. The Fed just doesn't want us to recognize what is all to obvious.

Yeah?

Bollocks.

If WE get a COLD China and the rest of the world will go into intensive care.

Don't underestimate the purchasing power of this country.

China has many alternatives to the U.S. in terms of its exports.

If China is at our mercy, why are they dumping U.S. dollar denominated equities and treasuries with such abandon? Because they are nearing worthlessness.

Can you tell me why China is dumping U.S. dollars?

China is more interested in making deals with Iran and Russia than it is in making deals with us.

The US import market is absolutely dominant for China. While they export to many countries, the Russian and Iranian import markets are blips in comparison:

#1  US        $1,869B
#18 Russia      $172B
#43 Iran:   	 $46B
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_imp-economy-imports

Most of that new infrastructure and personal wealth across China was built by doing business with the US, and losing it would be catastrophic for both the leadership and the workers.

China understands the results of its actions. It's both a partner and an adversary, and is trying to get the greatest advantage within that framework. They are not dumping US dollars with abandon, they're doing what almost every other country is doing and diversifying after having borne sizable losses on their dollar holding and watching the US take unilateral action to weaken the dollar further.

They control how US based corporations do business there and usually win disputes at the WTO. Even Jack Welsh of General Electic came to that conclusion when he tried the merger with Honeywell and the EU shot it down. From his words, "We have to do business with Europe, so we have no choice but to respect their law. That really is just the way the world works now". International beligerence is doing and will continue to do more harm. This dream of a world free trade zone controlled by US corporations enforced by coercion and violence won't work in the long run and will make us implode. We need to be smarter, or we can kiss our position in the global economy good bye.

Thank you for posting this.

I also have appreciated your other posts over the recent weeks regarding how to frame the issues with respect to what the Dems can realistically accomplish and what they cannot.

I have my doubts the rest of the world will continue to finance our debt without a decent return while there now exists alternatives, especially as we walk down the path of being an international bully. When we lose our reserve currency status, we're going to be in a bit of trouble.

When Hitler took over, he figured it was best to get the hell out of Germany. Friends and family said "you're nuts! This won't be so bad!" He grabbed the family and fled. The friends and family perished in the camps.

(Sometimes the endings are not so happy.)

viewed with the benefit of hindsight, but while it is happening nearly everyone ignores it or attributes it to nothing out out of the ordinary. So HERETIC et. al. will continue to belittle those trying to help right up until they join the party or are hauled off in the freight cars.

Just take care or you and yours, tell everyone you know how it is going and try to get them to prepare while you're packing. As for the others, well they had the same chances you did, we'll build a museum to their memories afterward.
:shrug:

just like before. The system of government is broken. It doesn't mean everything else stops. It does mean risk to you. The sky will always be blue whether you are free or not.

I'm sure Sibel would be pleased with the comparison.

if not, PLEASE use some sort of smilie to indicate that you are not the idiot suggested by your post...

...Americans are going to jobs that no longer give pay raises, or overtime, or they're being treated as if they can easily be replaced by someone who's willing to work for half the pay. Or, they're going to their second job to help pay for skyrocketing prices. ...I have to buy me a pair of rose colored glasses.

It will be the houses lost to foreclosure, the devaluation of homes across the country, the contracted financing to buy homes and the reduced building of new homes, the loss of home equity and overwhelming consumer debt with no source of funding to refinance it.

It will be the working poor and working middle class that will be affected the most. Yes they will continue to go to work, until the jobs do disappear.

There is a lot of pain headed our way, and it will be different than any other time in our history. We will have lots of employed individuals losing their homes and their cars.

And the devaluation of the dollar along with very small increases in the wages paid will put even more pressure on families to make ends meet.

Sorry, but I don't see any sunshine until we get a progressive Democrat in the Oval Office who can institute some sane policies that will help those about to be crushed.

This is it. This is an explicit and clear explanation of what working Americans face in the next few years, or possibly the next decade.

The NASDAQ, DOW and S&P 500 figures have nothing to do with the suffering we will face down the road.

There all ready IS a great deal of economic pain with absolutely NO sunshine on it.

Homes are, obviously, being lost to foreclosure across this nation.
The cars WILL keep humming because most people can't fucking WALK to jobs, these days.
Employed people have been losing their homes and trading in new for used cars to make ends meet for quite some time.
The expenses associated with basic needs are increasing so damn much faster than income that people are accepting living from paycheck to paycheck as a way of life.
One in four Americans have no secure medical care.
95% of Americans have NO EMPLOYMENT SECURITY.

Just because the top 5% are gaining does NOT mean the rest of the citizens of this country aren't being hit pretty fucking hard with economic oppression.

The "buzzing" and busy-ness asserted in the OP does not reflect overall economic reality in this nation.

Of course, economic reality would/will NEVER see the light of day unless the really rich fuckers are jumping out windows.

Except for the 25% who were out of work. No, not even the most prudent and rational planning can prevent every calamity. If you really want to understand how it is for those not in your class, watch 20/20 tonight.

You guys are correct. We're fucked.

Heaven forbid i fail to toe the line.

I see the error of my ways.

I'm off to buy canned food, ammo and gold.

If you can cheer me up, please do it!

I thought maybe you would have some good arguments to debate against the pessimistic side that has overwhelmed me (and apparently others).

If you do, please let us know!

First of all, if you knew me and we saw each other every day, it would be a normal part of your day to find that i would make an attempt, at least, to make you laugh. Every day. And i would succeed, 90% of the time.

It just doesn't carry too well in text, primarily because, for the most part, i gave up trying on this board long ago. (wow, that sounds rather sour grapes, eh? I can be such a dickhead)

If you want good arguments to debate against the pessimism, sorry, but not on a public thread. Not any more, anyway. I learned my lesson trying to make a point in a popular daily thread a few months ago. There is little point in trying to express a positive opinion in a crowd apparently so decidedly dour. Why would i shout that it will all be ok and it isnt that bad when it is obvious so many are wearing the Kabuki makeup of the pessimist? Shouting during a Kabuki play is bad form, i am led to understand.

This thread was a mistake, quite frankly and i started it after being inspired by reading NanceGreggs piece. I should have just left the sentiment for her to define as it was so much better received by the readers than this has been.

It's not that i don't give a shit what you or others think, it is just that i don't have the patience or the inclination to publicly express why i think the doomsayers are wrong, thats all.

I would be happy to have this conversation via PM but it is late and i have to work on Saturday.

who gives a fuck! :rofl:

the sky is falling! the sky is falling!

I'd give it to you for your stash, Heretic.

Keep up your spirits. Even if that means quaffing some... spirits. Can't hurt.

Audio Al

I'd love to have a logical explanation for why our economy is strong and why we are immune to disaster. Please, sooth my troubled spirit.

The Milton Friedman school of economics combined with the Ayn Rand cult and the Grover Norquist cult and neoconservative foreign policy isn't a good or sustainable path.

,...assert some "toe the line" bullshit which just crawls up something wrong.

Moreover, the "I'm off to buy canned food, ammo and gold" is an extremist remark, too.

I am happy for you. You feel secure. However, you have no authority to judge and beat up on others who ARE NOT SECURE by calling them "toe the line" types or "off to,...canned food, ammo and gold".

I doubt you would spend a moment to stand in someone else's shoes long enough to actually "see the error" of your ways. Otherwise, you would not be so quick to judge those in lessor economic circumstances or different perceptions of this economy,...from you.

i'm just curious how the hell i am beating up on anyone by asking a question.

As far as standing in someone elses shoes, trust me on this; I HAVE stood in those shoes, THEY WERE MY GOD DAMNED SHOES.

I was homeless and destitute in 1998, ok? I was out of work for 6 months, lost my home, and wore out the welcome at a friends house to where i was asked to leave. I had no where to go. I slept in my car for about a month, showering in a truckstop. So don't for one second assume i don't know what it is like to not be "secure". I've been there, alright? I got a new gig, changed my situation and my life improved. It when down again 2 years later but i recovered from that too.


The above is COMPLETELY beside the point. The Original Post was a mistake, quite frankly. I regret making it. I even alerted on my own thread asking it be locked or deleted to no avail. There is no point in stirring up a hornets nest on this subject and THAT is the reason for the "I apologize" post you responded to.

Sorry if it crawled up "something wrong" but TOUGH. It's called sarcasm. If you can't recognize it without the damned smiley, there is not much i can do for you.

Just for fun, price that out in Euros. Bought gasoline lately?

is nothing new. The DOW can rise while the dollar falls. The dollar has been gradually declining for four or five years.

EDIT: five years to four or five years.

Today I had that thought. That extension of what would happen when suddenly our oil imports simply stop. I marvel at all of the people who seem to be oblivious, and addicted to driving. Just racing all over the place. What would it be like to see and hear no cars.

I don't think it's going to happen that way, though. And I had this discussion with someone today. Both of us ending on the note that things tend to change slowly, and not very dramatically.

I expect, like the real estate market, that some places will be hit harder than others. Most noticeably will be areas with the most intense use. Like Los Angeles. Maybe one day, millions of cars won't be on the road. But a few million will be. And in smaller towns, it may be hardly noticeable.

I think the bottom line is that the underlying infrastructure will remain. But millions of people will find themselves in serious trouble. Perhaps even starving. We have in place an infrastructure of people doing their jobs. Basic work. Poultry and other animal farms. Agricultural. And ultimately, those things that depend the most on petroleum will suffer. There will be less transportation. That will affect the variety we see in stores. It'll affect the ability to supercharge the soil, to grow enough food for a third of a billion Americans.

I think it's sad. We had the chance to slow our growth, and to find new ways of generating power. We chose to sit and do none of that. That would have been the hard way. That would have meant one or no children. That would have meant smaller cars. Battery research. But we chose to pump oil instead.

But we can't predict the future. So we'll have to see how gently nature treats us.

Maybe it should say "a dark BLOT on history."

We are counting the days.

And you will hear traffic as people continue to go to work, cause they have to feed their families. Soon the cost of gas and heating will sharply reduce discretionary spending. People will stop buying TV's going out to eat, as it will become a hand to mouth existence for many who are in fair shape today.

The US dollar is circling the drain, and even the cheap crap that Wal-Mart imports from China is going to rise 50% or more in price, bringing on inflation.

Remember we can't make TV's or even T-Shirts in this country anymore, all those jobs went overseas years ago, and the factories torn down to build malls to sell the cheap Chinese crap in or converted into condo's. Your stock market can become nothing but a penny stock market in a matter of hours. The economy is much more than the DJ average, it is 90% people and their spending. When all that money is going overseas because the USD is worth only pennies and gas is $5 - $10/gal this house of cards is going to come tumbling down.

More of this same old tired BULLSHIT NONSENSE that we don't make anything in the US anymore.

Here, let me throw a book at you;

http://www.thomasnet.com/

When you get done reading that, perhaps you can list some of the 19 companies THAT DO MAKE TV'S or even a handful of the 236 companies that make T-Shirts in the US. Or maybe just 3 of the 3500 companies that make something as mundane as nuts and bolts.

How fucking predictable.

The sound you hear could be me driving 110 miles per day (2hours 45minutes total) to make less than half what I made 6 months ago.
And by the way, I'm paying a lot more for gas and have laughable health coverage now as well.
My industry has shed over 50,000 jobs in the last 2 months.
Sorry...I'm not feeling the happy vibe.
>edited to correct tipsy typing<

When I can buy either eggs OR a loaf of bread, when I can buy EITHER dog food OR cheap lunch meat for myself (guess whose needs prevail? the ones who depend on me), and when I have to choose between paying the water bill or adding a little more gas to my tank, the Dow Jones means shit to me. A few years ago I could pay my bills and was actually proud to do so. These days I pay them, but with fear and a sick feeling in my stomach. Sure, if I have to, I can pare down even further. But things have gone down, dramatically, and FAST. Some scary-ass shit. Particularly since I'm more than $50K in student loan debt. That's not going away any time soon, especially since I can barely make their scheduled payment.

So you keep talking about your Dow Jones and "history." I'm just worried about paying my mortgage in two weeks.

I'm very happy these issues are being discussed, because they are crucial issues.

Our economy used to be strong because we CREATED and PRODUCED products. Over the past decade or so it has been strong because we PURCHASED and CONSUMED products. Now, because of our debt, we can't even afford to consume for much longer.

I just want to add that as food for thought. We have squandered a fortune on wars, and diverted precious money from education and so many worthwhile pursuits. All nations that have pursued blind imperialistic strategies have self-destructed.

That is one reason I put more effort than usual into individual planning for future difficulties.

optimistic about it.

Some interesting reading here, if you are not familiar with Mr. Kunstler:

http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html

last book. Thanks for mentioning him here. He is dead on, as far as I can see.

comment to my Dow/Euros post. I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm just not seeing it.

I'm not optimistic at all. If any of my posts gave that impression, I'm sorry.

I've been pessimistic for more than five years and have been adjusting my investments accordingly.

I almost think it is criminal to be encouraging unsophisticated investors to get into this market or to be spending at this time.

etc. Tried to be as prudent as possible with investments, such as they are, starting to think a good roto-tiller for the garden might be the best one yet.

I'm still dependent on the grocery store, but I can probably live for one year without leaving the house.

That's fantastic you have taken it to that level of self sufficiency.

I almost wish there was a DU forum for this topic, because it would be so helpful to learn from people who have truly prepared and can give some guidance to others who are in the process or want to learn more about it.

the other two were dying after close to eight years....

And it is amazing, the few times we buy toys, we buy cash...

And people look at us as if we were weird

1500 square foot ranch with a full basement for 130,000 in 2002 to downsize. Cars paid for. No debt at all. And we've owned a "roto tiller" for about 25 years. We have a garden every year and put up tons of food. Last year I only container growed and same thing. Sadly we have watched our friends around us continue in the "I have to have greater and more" vein of most people.

A couple we knew for years bought a 600,000 house two years ago on the lake, they are both in their 50's, and he lost his job (no pension and didn't save). Now they are really in a pickle. She works at the post office and that is all they are living on.

Of course they also had to have a boat, and jet skiis, and all the rest, of course on credit.

Sad.

That is no small achievement.

a colder market. But also not going for a brand new 3500 sf McMansion on .2 acre instead opting for an older smaller house on 2 acres etc. I also didn't think I needed the latest and greatest auto etc., and I've been using the library instead of amazon.com, and so on...

to get into this market?

I never said nor did i infer such a thing. I don't encourage an unsophisticated person to do anything except to reverse that unfortunate state of ignorance to the best of their ability.

I trust you weren't putting words in my fingers, so to speak.

If you are an investor and you are concerned about the state of your investments or their allocation, seek the assistance and guidance of a licensed financial professional immediately.

If you take your investing cues from an internet message board, you get exactly what you deserve.

Yeah.

Thats an economic pundit i'll take seriously.

suburbia and peak oil, your mileage may vary. And speaking of theatre:


The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way, and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theatre.
-- Frank Zappa

The "ownership" society is a paper economy. We don't make anything anymore on a large scale except maybe weapons.

a bite out of the surgery market, and some fast food joint jobs are already being outsourced:

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060411-6574.html

But, I also believe that we are going to have to work together and share resources to make it possible for the technology to be developed and to benefit us all.

The question today is not whether we can solve our economic and technological problems, but how the burdens and profits of those developments will be allocated in the future. The cars will keep running and the stock market will keep increasing in value as long as the majority of us have confidence that we have a valuable role to play in our society, that we will be adequately rewarded for playing our roles and that we will not be exploited or left out, as long as we can all trust the system and each other.

If we do not learn to share with each other, if the strong and greedy few grab most of the wealth and all of the power, we will wake up to the cries of the hungry and the poor. Sharing is a spiritual path that leads to fulfillment and peace.

well said.

There's more than enough in this world to feed, clothe, house, and educated every single person in it. The problems aren't technological at heart.

We've had several years of very bad management.

But I don't believe the sky is falling. I think there will probably be a slowdown, a downturn. I think we need to address our long-term problems pronto. Renewable energy. Infrastructure. A SPHC system. The only way we're going to pay our way out of the hole Bush has dug is to cut the M/I complex budget down to sanity. End the drug war. Legalize AND TAX marijuana. Stop using tax dollars to play nanny state church lady on everything from consenting adult porn to idiotic abstinence only programs.

I also think that we have the brainpower in this country to solve ANY problem that is thrown our way, but we can't do it with the luddites, flat Earthers, and finger-wagging puritans in charge.

Everything will go on the way it always has, regardless of the macro-economic fundamentals, petroleum depletion and climate change.

Americans like to believe that they're somehow immune from natural and economic laws. Unfortunately, they'll soon find out that their policies and actions have consequences, just like every other country's do. And it won't be pretty.

I remember seeing a talking head on CNN (I believe it was Kyra Phillips) say something like the following: "How could this happen in America?"

As if hurricanes knew which countries they are supposed to hit.

further. Nothing would make me happier than to be provided with a logical reason why I don't need to plan economically and materially for a major economic calamity in my beloved country.

And I'm not at all confident that I am right to do so, because I have been worried about this for nearly five years, and nothing horrendous has happened.

For me, it's an open issue, and I read everything I can and evaluate the opinions to the best of my ability.

I wish this conversation would continue.

and we can do it over the weekend.

But i do have to work tomorrow and it has been a very long day.

Be good.

And I'm not the only one interested in it.

until it's bled pale and there's no more credit for the working and middle classes

In times of great economic upheaval there is always an underlying transfer of wealth, usually from the middle and lower classes to the upper elite class.

For example, we have had an unparalleled stretch of huge corporate profits paired with an almost flat wage line, which has created super-rich CEOs and upper management. They have used their power to influence company policies that reinforce the same behavior, and the corporations have used the profits to influence government lawmakers to maintain the present environment which creates an uninterrupted flow of wealth to a very few individuals and groups.

The real restraint the elites have over the middle and working classes is the imposition of overwhelming consumer debt which cannot be repaid. It is a form of financial servitude that people cannot break away from without the help of government policies that do not continue to favor the rich and corporate enablers.

During the depression many people committed suicide and it made the front pages of the news. However, during the same depression those with lots of liquid cash were able to buy up valuable assets for pennies on the dollar which made them millionaires when the economy stabilized later.

With the change in bankruptcy laws, and the inability of people to service all of their consumer debt, we are facing exactly the same situation. In fact it is going on right now. We just had an article printed recently where wealthy investors from the Northeast are flying into southern cities and buying up homes for 1/3 to 1/2 the value paid for them by at closing by homeowners. They will turn these properties over for huge returns in a couple of years when the economy stabilizes. However the displaced homeowners are having to turn to apartments, and the rents are going up.

Sorry but there is going to have to be more than just a Democratic Congress in control. There must be changes implemented that go against the interests of the wealthy corporate contributors to Congress. It is going to take a progressive President that is willing to take those interests on and beat them --negotiating with them is not an option.

it has been in a downhill slide for the working
class and the ever shrinking middle class. The
dollar has lost value and consumer goods, fuels and
utilities are going up. I have also seen a rather
large increase in my auto insurance, home owners insurance,
and rental property insurance. Property taxes in our
area increased this year. I make the same thing I made
in 2001 and have far less extra money these days than
I used to. This is with cutting back on extras like
no satellite tv, no movie rentals, no unnecessary trips
to town, hanging clothes on the clothesline instead of
using the dryer, and using flourescent light bulbs. We
shave expenses any way we can. I think it will be quite
some time before consumer earning and spending power will
be able to any more than limp along at best.

since it is over-valued at this time, it is going to correct.

Personally, I think it should drop about 800 pts...that would destroy bush, and the economy would not suffer one bit. The only ones who would suffer are the big investors.

These dyas, there is a lot of "panic" sell offs, so be it. The Market does not drive the economy, the economy drives the market.

Let's see what happens...:)

The party has only just started.

It will run for decades...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=25901&mesg_id=25901

We're still in a bull market, which has sudden drops and slow rises. A bear market would be the opposite, sudden rises and slow drops.

i have pretty good hearing and end up these past few years coming and going at all hours, so i get to pay attention to little things like this. the traffic is still here though. but y'know it used to be a lot more intense 7 years ago, too. i wonder why...? might be related to those big swaths of empty business parks i come across. you just never know these days.

edit: i have noticed an explosion in mass transit ridership, too. seems to be a lot of people making longer and more outrageous commutes from the valley, where they drive a few hours, stop at a flagella of BART and commute on into the city. a noticeable rise in commutes longer than 4 hours a day.

But the people driving the cars will be cabbies, bus drivers, firemen, policemen and EMT's.

Not on the underlying economic factors. The Dow can be manipulated, hell, Reagan admitted it was a rigged game back in the late eighties when he admitted that there was a Plunge Protection Team. So we know that the Dow is a crooked game.

But the rest of the economic factors can't be so easily manipulated, though this administration has tried to do just that time and again.

First, we're in the middle of a housing crash that hasn't reached bottom. We're in a credit crunch that is squeezing people, as are the rising prices of gas, food and everything else. Gold's up, a sure indicator that the rich are fleeing to a safe haven. Consumer confidence, and consumer spending is down, because the people have less money for discretionary spending. Unemployment is slowly tick upwards, and even though the official figure says we're only in the upper four percent range, if calculate unemployment on the same criteria as twenty five years ago, we're over ten percent. The bond market, even muni bond, normally a safe haven, is getting battered in the market and starting to go down. Big ticket items are down. The financial sector, the US's economic engine, is getting hammered from all sides, and as it goes, so goes the economy. Virtually all economic indicators are pointing down, waaay down.

Sure, the Dow is up, but really, what's keeping it there? Hot air mainly. Besides, is the market value of thirty companies really any kind of good indicator of economic health? I think not, and I think that if you go beyond the market numbers you too will see that yes, we're teetering on the brink of an economic abyss.

Then you're right to think i am being fooled.

Jesus H Christ on a pogo stick - betweeen you and the others that inferred the same thing, you seem to think i look at the Dow as the singular bellweather for how well people are doing.

I don't and it isn't.

It was a flawed use of the index to attempt to illustrate a point, not to prove one.

I won't be making that same mistake again on DU, that's for sure.

pleasantly surprised pessimist than a very disappointed optimist when it comes to financial matters, Heretic.

Much easier on the ulcers, ya know.

... be a meltdown with people scrounging in the streets.

But it is all but certain that hard times are ahead. How hard is open to debate as it depends on many things.

But the fact that we have an aging population in which huge numbers have basically no savings, a government that simply cannot meet its obligation to Social Security as we know it, and an economy where most real wealth creation has moved offshore - well you can dress it up all you wish but it does not bode well.

In the near term, you cannot push on a string. The fed's ability to create artificial stimulus is becoming more limited all the time. Huge losses by banks are the early bellwether of the housing debacle, the longer term effect will be felt by everyman rather than the bankers and investors. This will take a minimum of 1-2 more years to play out, those thinking the worst is over are simply delusional, the same crowd that told us there would be NO fallout from the housing debacle.

So, optimism is fine, I use it myself from time to time. But most of what passes for optimism when it comes to the economy of America is simply a refusal to look at things realistically, and an assumption that America is somehow ordained or entitled to economic prosperity. Maybe long ago, not any more.

A good friend had a hip and pelvis repaired our hospital and dr. costs 63k...same thing can be done in India for airfare and 5000 bucks.

The Persian Gulf will be shut down. Oil prices will go through the roof. Think $8.00/gal

And then peak oil kicks in, and even after the Iran fighting is over and the tankers start moving, the prices never do go down to what they were.

Eventually, the streets will be silent for lack of cars.

The world as a whole does not like you...

What you are describing and what gas/petroleum represents is a false economy ---
as false as the artificial dollar bill --

Surrounding ourselves with plastic --- creating traffic and noise --- isn't life ---

Life is nature -- and we are part of it --

All we do that harms it, harms ourselves.

Seriously. People are losing jobs left and right, moving out of the state, losing their homes, and more. Many people who put away for a rainy day have had to tap that just to get by and then lost their homes anyway. Times are really tight up here. Real people are hurting, businesses are going under that depended on the money from local factories that moved out of the country, and I know so many who are thinking of moving, sick of fighting for every last penny to stretch far enough.

People aren't buying new cars (check the sales of the Big Three--all of which have plants in Michigan still with fewer jobs than ever before), and it's not unusual for me to see twenty year old cars on the road barely hanging together. They may be driving (with terrible bus service here, it's the only option), but it's to a job that pays much, much less than they had with their last job or to two minimum-wage jobs, even three, a day.

The Republicans, in their debate here, said that we're in a "one state recession." I say that's b.s. We aren't the only ones hurting. Look throughout the Rust Belt and see how much people are hurting.

Oh, and blaming it on the people who've lost their jobs and houses is really classy. :eyes:

a time period that saw a large swing in plant production levels and employment, so "dare" me to come up there and say that all you want.

As for your last sentence, where did you gather from my OP that i blamed a downturn or economic slowdown on people that have lost jobs or their homes? I did no such thing.

kind of official by now.

So, if someone couldn't save up and lost everything, it's their fault, right? That's the flip-side of your argument.

That decade you lived here saw things starting to get bad. They've tanked since then. Plus, if you really understood all that and were keeping track of our great state since then, I think you'd come to different conclusions.

That is not the same as saying "smart people saved up for the future".



I honestly don't know how to respond to this except to say - yes, i suppose it is. Is it someone else's fault? I am sorry if that idea offends you.

I have met plenty of UAW workers and every single one of them understood that the industry is cyclical in nature and the possibility of their plant closing or their job disappearing always existed. Almost all of them had some plan in place for this.

I moved to Detroit in June of 1989. Production rates were slowing and layoffs were high. By the middle of the decade, demand had increased, production rates had soared and employment was high. It stayed that way until i left the area in 1999. (Started with Bush in office, the rest of the decade under Clinton)

Sooner or later it will recover again. It is a CYCLICAL industry. Will Michigan ever see the total numbers of auto workers that there used to be? Probably not. But it WILL recover.

In Kalamazoo, they had Upjohn. Then Pharmacia bought them out, promising to keep the R&D going strong. Jobs were cut. Then, Pfizer bought out Pharmacia. They promised to keep the R&D people in Kalamazoo. Two months later, they cut 3000 jobs. Now, they're doing another round of cuts while the company has some of its highest profits ever.

Where do those 3000 go? Counting all the consultants and temps, over 6000 were cut in two years. This after promises that they wouldn't be cut. People had to move, sell their houses for whatever they could get for them, and leave a community they'd always been in. I don't care what you say, that's really, really hard for anyone to do, especially after you were looked in the eye and promised to still have a job.

If you start talking other jobs, things are really tight. With fuel costs going up, food costs going up, heating costs going up, and wages staying stagnant, it's getting harder for people to put anything away for the rainy day. I've talked with a lot of people in that position, and they're scared.

There's more to Michigan than the auto jobs. Frankly, there aren't very many of those around anymore. Biotechs are hiring, but those are risky, since so many fold in a year or two. It's hard to bet the family on a maybe job. Family farms are going under (see a new auction almost every week in the Shopper), most manufacturing is already gone, and where are people supposed to make enough to save and put away for a rainy day?

Yes, you said smart people do that, and you're right, but you left out a part: smart people with enough coming in to meet their needs and then some. Not everyone's in that position.

And trust me, things are amazingly worse than they were when you moved. I grew up in the Lansing area, and while the rich seem to be doing really well, the rural poverty is worse than when I was growing up. We lived in Ohio for a few years, and I almost didn't recognize my home state when we moved up here in 2001. It gets worse every year. Michigan's losing talent, jobs, money, and apparently water (it's the rumor up north). People can only save and plan for so much before they run out of resources.

Edited for spelling

Optimism that it won't always be like that didn't work out so well here.

The early boomers that got caught up in this "organized-crime" mess of corporate mergers, outsourcing, H1Bs, credit crunches, and housing escalations are truly screwed. They don't have the work-life time left to recoup the damage, and will soon be seen as the pitable living dead; 2)disgusting unproductive leaches of resources; 3)Senile optimists in denial.

They've lost all sorts of population, jobs, everything. The state government doesn't seem to care. It's like Flint all over again.

or working 2-3 part time jobs with no benefits to try and keep going

People are busy, that's true. People are not thriving. That is also true. We are sinking and sinking fast.

.

all hours every day because people are having to work 2 or 3 jobs just to survive.

your simplistic rationalizations sound seriously repuke-ish

Perhaps a more complex rationalization would sound more Democratic?

Kindly buss my backside.

to suggest the economy is doing well because there's rush-hour traffic? You don't think people are busy in third world countries too? I still work and so do my friends - but there is no longer any feeling of security - you cannot possibly think things are the same or better.....surely you can see things are getting worse.

As i have stated in other posts, i have learned my lesson, now on several points.

And they are:

1) Don't start threads that ask questions that make people upset. (If you do, be prepared to be accused of sounding like a troll, a repuke, etc.)
2) When using a rhetorical device, clearly spell out what it is you are trying to say.
3) Never, and i mean NEVER mention the DJIA in a thread asking if folks think things will come to a complete standstill economically.

Sorry if the idea of using traffic noise as an metaphor for commerce failed so miserably.

And i never suggested that things were rosy or not getting worse. As i said in an earlier post, this thread was inspired by NanceGreggs piece. Her sentiment - essentially that we will get through this - was far better received than this thread. (another lesson. Leave the punditry and opinion sharing to others)

so now he'll add this and damn if everything ain't rosy!

Great. :eyes:

on their way to jobs at buger king, mcdonalds, arbys... etc....

whats your point?

cuz they don't earn enough to get newer ones

the millions of others that have been trounced on and used up. sounds like repuke talk to me...hey, i pulled myself up by my bootstraps...blah, blah, blah, blah.

so you think you're the wise person...and everybody else in that soup line is an idiot. nice spin.

That is a major, Olympic quality leap you made there.



If you think that i am saying everyone else is an idiot (for whatever reason) then you really should try brushing up on your reading comprehension skills.

"Sounds like repuke talk to me"

Fine. A further example of why i have a daily post average of 2.5 over the 4 years and 3 months i have been a member here and rarely start threads. I would rather just stay quiet than have people like you accusing me of talking like a republican or insinuating that i am calling a segment of my fellow Americans idiots.

For the record, (not that it is anyones business, but there you go) i make about $500 a week these days. There have been many posts above that suggest i am "doing well". If $25,000/year is doing well, it is news to me.

My father lived through the Great Depression and still managed to have a car. He bought an old car for peanuts and kept it running with junk yard parts and paperclips. But he still drove his car during that time, despite finding little steady work and feeding himself by getting his faced bashed in every week in a boxing ring.

In an economically devastated city like Calcutta, where about 1.5 million people are homeless and live on the streets, the traffic is still impossibly thick and never stops.

Even during World War II, for example in France they still had cars running on the streets. France not only experienced the Great Depression (which was world-wide) but just as they were coming out of it they then faced German occupation where the Germans rationed the food, stole the farm produce and had the population living on bread made of sawdust and coffee made of roasted wheat grain. But people still managed to drive cars despite being on the brink of starvation. To their existing cars, they adapted a type of generator chamber that burned coal or wood and used the carbon monoxide gas from that combustion and mixed it with air to power their engines. It could power an automobile.

You are right in that if the activity of traffic is greatly reduced, that will be a sign that an economic collapse has occurred. But I think we can have a very bad economic period, worse even than the Great Depression, but still find that people somehow manage to have vehicles and get around.

and the middleclass is erroding, and how MOST jobs do not keep up with inflation? The trend points DOWN for most of us, yet UP for the wealthy and well to do. Which are you? It may have something to do with your perspective on this topic.

and welcome to DU.

the trend I spoke of isn't being addressed in that post you linked to. Maybe to my question regarding your financial situation, but not to the trend we live in. Things are getting worse, not better and most know what today's situation means in the long term. In short term there is work... sure. No one suggests otherwise, but look at our living expenses, loss of pensions, union busting, jobs being exported for cheap wages. The wealthy are making a killing, while leaving Americans are being left high and dry (by those so-called patriotic businessmen who love advertising the American flag and voting for Conservatives who tout as much), just because we won't work for shitty wages.

I didn't even mention our debt, the falling dollar, who owns part of our national debt, the war, etc.!

when you lose your job and have gone through your savings. You ignore the fact that most people these days do not have lots of fluid cash, plenty of credit debt, and houses that are rapidly declining in value. That stock market you seem to enthralled with is a giant mountain of paper teetering on a whole lotta mojo.

The fact that gold, silver...is at a all time high

The dollar is continually heading downward, so much so that the Euro that used to be weak, is now worth more than the dollar

Oil is going over more than $100.00 a barrel pretty darn soon, with no end in sight

Interst rates will most likely be cut again in December

Debt is huge

Budget is blown to smithereens, what about "a balanced budget?" not a big deal?

While so many of us are obsessed with Iraq and Iran, our economy is headed for the toilet. Our taxes are going up and the prices at the grocery stores are also going up along with utilites. Mortgage foreclosures are at an all time high and the housing market sucks.

That humming you hear of people going to work? Yeah, they are going to work, getting paid less and having to work 2 jobs..... so much for humming huh?

paying their bills any longer.

that their $20k, $100k and $500k stock investment portfolios are not going to do any thing for the economy while big companies like Microsoft are taking their profits to invest in China, India, Brazil and Eastern Europe. Why provide a tax incentive via the capital gains tax rate, at the expense or burden of the American Taxpayer when the investments aren’t being made into the US economy to generate jobs for Americans? So the bottom line is its time to revisit that tax policy because the average taxpayer is subsidizing Global industrialization with no benefits for them. Once they wake up to this fact the market is going to going to get dumped big time. Many have already done this and are putting money into real estate and gold.

Just keep drinking the Kool Aid and telling yourself "All is Well".

This "difficulty" will indeed end -- after a lot -- A LOT -- more suffering.