Posted by Ilan Goldenberg
It turns out that simply dealing with local militias and having no plan for how to actually integrate that into a national strategy is
a problem. It also turns out that the Shi'a central government is afraid of all the Sunnis that the U.S. is arming. This was the obvious problem in the "bottom up" approach from the very beginning and some of
us have been saying it for
months.
In more than a dozen interviews, U.S. military officials expressed growing concern over the Iraqi government's failure to capitalize on sharp declines in attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians. A window of opportunity has opened for the government to reach out to its former foes, said Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the commander of day-to-day U.S. military operations in Iraq, but "it's unclear how long that window is going to be open."
...The year-long progress in fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq could carry a downside. Maj. Mark Brady, who works on reconciliation issues, noted that a Sunni leader told him: "As soon as we finish with al-Qaeda, we start with the Shiite extremists."
The American military finds new allies, but at what cost?by Jon Lee Anderson
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The new strategy is also meant to prepare the ground for Iraqi security forces to replace the Americans, and all the Joint Security Stations, as the name suggests, involve Americans and Iraqis. But the Iraqis do not all belong to the official, government forces. With American assistance, several hundred armed Sunni volunteers called the Ghazaliya Guardians were gradually assuming police duties. Such U.S.-approved Sunni forces had begun to sprout up everywhere. Many of them, to the dismay of some Shiites, included former insurgents. An official with one of the major Shiite political parties told me, “Some of these armed groups were, until yesterday, hostile forces that attacked the Iraqi government, Coalition forces, and anyone who was involved in the government. They were considered terrorists. What happened?”
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And there has yet to be any significant U.S. troop presence in Baghdad’s Shiite slums, such as Sadr City and Shulla, which are controlled by Shiite militiamen. Many of them claim to be members of the Mahdi Army, led by Moqtada al-Sadr, whose political brinkmanship and tactical use of violence have been an enduring source of bewilderment to the Pentagon’s war planners. Indeed, analysts credit much of the recent drop in Iraqi civilian deaths not to the surge but to Sadr’s decision, in August, to order the Mahdi Army, which is believed to have been responsible for much of the Shiite-on-Sunni sectarian killing in and around Baghdad, to “freeze” its activities for six months. Sadr’s apparent aim was to ward off an escalation of a two-day gun battle between the Mahdi and another Shiite militia, and to reassert his control over his men.
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Some combination of the surge, the Sunni Awakening, and Sadr’s freeze has helped to stabilize troubled areas of the capital and Anbar; it is unclear whether the gains can be expanded upon—or even sustained—with fewer troops, but further increases alone will not win the war. And no more troop additions are planned; instead, President Bush has promised to withdraw, by next July, almost as many troops as were brought in for the surge. Iraq’s future, for the moment, is in limbo. The best one can say, perhaps, is that the U.S. has bought or borrowed a little space to work with. But there have been costs, some more obvious than others.
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Zaidan said that Anbar’s Sunni tribes no longer had any need to exact blood vengeance on U.S. forces. “We’ve already taken our revenge,” he said. “We’re the ones who’ve made them crawl on their stomachs, and now we’re the ones to pick them up.” He added, “Once Anbar is settled, we must take control of Baghdad, and we will.” There would have to be a lot more fighting before the capital was taken back from the Shiites, he said. “The Anbaris will take charge of the purge. What the whole world failed to do in Anbar, we have done overnight. Baghdad will be a lot easier.”
more Sunni vs. Shiite:
http://www.juancole.com/2007/11/maliki-said-to-induct-18000-militiamen.html">Maliki Said to Induct 18,000 Militiamen into Security ServicesBy David Morgan 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration's courtship of the biggest Shi'ite party in Iraq could worsen a dangerous rift between rival Shi'ite groups and ultimately give Iran a greater political role, a think tank said on Wednesday.
The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, or SIIC, a cornerstone of the political alliance behind Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has enjoyed close relations with Washington since the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003, unlike the rival Shi'ite movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al Sadr.
But the International Crisis Group urged the United States to adopt a more evenhanded approach to the majority Shi'ite community, saying in a report that Shi'ite rivalries are likely to have more influence on Iraq's future than the sectarian conflict between Shi'ites and Sunnis.
"The U.S. has fully backed (SIIC) in this rivalry. This is a risky gambit," the Belgium-based think tank said.
moreOther than manipulating facts and pulling the puppet Maliki's string, Bush doesn't have an Iraq policy. The parties are all just going along---Shiite and Sunni biding their time, waiting for Americans to get out of the way.
By Sam Dagher
Wed Nov 14
Baghdad - Tariq al-Hashemi says he cringes when he's described as Iraq's Sunni vice president.
Mr. Hashemi, one of two vice presidents – the other, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, is Shiite – says he is trying to reach out to all Iraqis. In September, he met for the first time with Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, the reclusive Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, at his home in the holy Shiite city of Najaf. He also drafted an Iraqi National Compact – his 25-point plan to lessen sectarian and ethnic strife.
At the same time, he remains utterly at odds with the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Indeed, the standoff between the two men underscores the fact that Iraq's political leaders have not capitalized on improved security to advance what US officials here have labeled "top-down reconciliation."
<...>
Hashemi, who lost three of his siblings to targeted assassinations last year, gets very emotional when he speaks about the plight of prisoners, particularly those held in Iraqi facilities.
He accuses the Maliki government of paying people it calls "secret informants" to fabricate evidence and reports used to round up hundreds of Sunni Arabs throughout Iraq this year on the pretense of being linked to Al Qaeda and the insurgency.
moreBy SINAN SALAHEDDIN, Associated Press Writer
Tue Nov 13
BAGHDAD - A key ally of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called Tuesday for Iraq's parliament to be dissolved and new elections held immediately.
Bahaa al-Araji, a lawmaker from al-Sadr's 30-member bloc, told reporters in Baghdad that the parliament has "become a burden on the Iraqi people rather than an institution to solve their problems and offer services."
"The parliament has become a very weak institution because of the way the elections took place, especially in Anbar and Mosul and some other southern provinces. I call for revising the election law," al-Araji said.
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Earlier this year, al-Sadr's followers pulled out of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Cabinet, to protest the Iraqi leader's reluctance to call for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country. Sadrists also withdrew from the legislature's largest Shiite political grouping, the United Iraqi Alliance, but retained their seats in parliament.
Bahaa al-Araji is a prominent member of al-Sadr's bloc, and is also known for a militia he keeps in northwest Baghdad. Similar to al-Sadr's larger and better known Mahdi Army, al-Araji's group is accused of involvement in attacks on U.S. forces and the forced removal of Sunnis from neighborhoods in western Baghdad.
moreMeaningless statement:
Al-Qaeda has been driven from "every neighborhood in Baghdad" By Paul Tait and Missy Ryan
Wed Nov 14
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Sectarian strife remains a great threat despite improving security, Iraqi leaders said on Wednesday, only hours after a big blast rocked central Baghdad.
The roadside bomb killed two civilians and wounded three just outside the heavily fortified Green Zone that houses the U.S. embassy and government ministries, police said. Three U.S. soldiers were killed north of Baghdad, the military said.
The explosion in Baghdad was close to a checkpoint where hundreds of Iraqis who work inside the sprawling complex queue every morning. It was one of the loudest blasts heard in the capital in weeks after a sharp lull in attacks.
U.S. military spokesman Rear Admiral Gregory Smith said the blast, targeting a convoy of military vehicles, caused "multiple military and civilian casualties."
moreThu Nov 15, 2007
By Ross Colvin and Maher Nazeh
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. forces said they had killed 25 suspected insurgents in operations targeting al Qaeda militants near the capital, but Sunni Arab tribal leaders accused them on Thursday of killing pro-U.S. fighters.
The head of a Sunni Arab tribal group that has turned against al Qaeda and joined forces with the U.S. military told Reuters U.S. aircraft had bombed his men late on Tuesday night, killing 45, as they manned checkpoints just north of Baghdad.
U.S. forces have formed alliances with Sunni Arab tribes in western Iraq and in provinces around Baghdad, offering mostly paid employment to nearly 70,000 tribal fighters and former insurgents as part of its strategy to combat al Qaeda.
The U.S. military said it launched an operation late on Tuesday targeting suspected associates of senior al Qaeda leaders in Tarmiya, which is close to Taji. Troops backed by aircraft killed 25 gunmen, it said.
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He said the U.S. assault on his men began late on Tuesday night in the al-Nebaei area near Taji and lasted about 12 hours.
"The Americans in Taji are our friends. If the attack was a mistake, we just want to know the reasons. If they attacked us deliberately, then we will decide what to do," Jassem said.
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