NEW OHIO POLL - John Edwards Most Electable Democrat.... LINK

As the race for the Democratic Nomination comes down the home stretch, Democrats have to face the issue of 'Electability' of their Nominee in the General Election. While most Democrat-only polls show Hillary Clinton holds a lead, when the polling turns to the General Election questions arise as to whether she is the 'most electable.'

This poll seems to show that JOHN EDWARDS is the most electable Democrat in Ohio, a key swing state. LINK provided below:


http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/11/poll_hillary_way_ahead_in_ohio_but_edwards_might_be_the_strongest_dem.php

"A new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead their respective primaries — although Rudy has only a weak plurality, and the general election match-ups would seem to say that John Edwards is the most electable Democrat for this key swing state."

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The general election numbers are
Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Obama (D) 41%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Edwards (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 40%

Now we're getting somewhere!

He makes too much sense!

(and he's beautiful to look at.)

Usually it would be like tuna in a cat fight.
Don't tell me the media is out to merely improve ratings. It's insane they haven't embraced Edwards--only a strong mandate from the top could stop them.

Edwards is getting no coverage at all!

let him and Hillary Inc. destroy each other...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml

Hillary protects the Dems NE flank from Rudy the best while picking off some red states and making others competitive.

Edwards has just started running tv/media ads after months of million $ ads by Clinton and Obama.

Look for Edwards' support to surge.

However, he has always done well in one on one matchups with the top tier Repubs.

Here's the PA poll from Nov 8th - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1117

Here's FL from Oct 25th - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1112

Edwards is within the MOE for PA & NY

"Edwards has just started running tv/media ads after months of million $ ads by Clinton and Obama."

Because pub financing he is limited to how much money he can spend per primary. So he better have some great ads.

Whoever wins the Democratic Nomination is going to need high numbers on the 'electability' scale.

If we want the greatest probablity of taking back the Oval Office, then we should field the most electable candidate.

I don't buy the argument that 'any Democrat will win.'

.... and how the media B.S. machine keeps telling us Hillary Clinton is the most electable, and how he worries that we're being set up for failure.

and throw their vote away for more of the same crap. I assume that many don't see the dangers of ties with corporate interests and are willing to believe the spew from the mass-media that is owned by those corporations. The chain of corporations is the very thing we are suffering under.

I have looked at voter polls and trends, and I see potential trouble for her past the Democratic Nomination.

If she becomes the Democratic Nominee, I hope I am wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election%2C_1996#Republican_Party_nomination

Landslide at the convention, buried under a landslide in the general.

- Dave

A Party can be so focused on itself that it loses perspective of what it takes to win the General Election.

I know it is not popular, but putting together a winning Campaign in the General Election is all about building a coalition of different voting blocks which adds up to the winning number. A very popular party candidate who cannot reach voters OUTSIDE of his party will have a huge hill to climb. You just can't write off groups that will vote and depend on 100% support from your party to win.

I think Hillary has a problem reaching outside the Democratic Party. That is what concerns me about her as the Democratic Nominee.

... for sitting out 08.

Knowing the machine he'd be up against, he made a gut-wrenching decision. I think he could have locked the Democratic base, co-opted most unaffiliated voters nationally, drawn many disaffected Republicans, and flipped key purplish border/Upper Appalachian states.

If Senator Clinton is the nominee, I think she'll have a really rough time flipping enough Electoral College votes.

If Senator Edwards is the nominee, I think he'll be wide open to attacks on his public service resume's length (or lack thereof).

If Senator Obama is the nominee, I think he'll face the same problem as Edwards, only moreso.

The Electoral College map is the only poll that matters.

The 2004 Electoral College map is a simple game of king of the hill for the GOP: hold the line.

Ohio doesn't flip? It's all over.

- Dave

to win in '08.

They have not been giving Edwards much positive coverage up to this point.

Josh blogged the last debate and never mentioned Edwards' name once.

... if he pledged to be an active candidate for the first six states, "no matter what": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#First_six_states_.28Iowa.2C_Michigan.2C_Nevada.2C_New_Hampshire.2C_South_Carolina_and_Florida.29

- Dave

THey have a schedule of events laid out. A hot list of issues they intend to highlight in selected locations at specific times. Another list of topics they want to address when an opening is created by events or the actions of another candidate. A list of issues that have been raise, or might be raised about some action or statement Edwards made for which he might receive criticism in the future. A copy of the Congressional agenda/events and timing of legislative action. And a running summary of all Congressional investigations and committee actions.

Key to running a campaign is not to be too soon in the wrong locale with an issue that you intend to highlight.

I think Edwards will make such a statement between now and the Iowa caucuses. However, it has to be in the right context and right setting OR it might be misinterpreted as a sign of weakness that he had to come out and make such a statement of an obvious fact.

I have no doubt Edwards is in it to win.

... I'll sit up and take notice (and I bet Senator Clinton's camp will, too).

- Dave

... as a very serious signal of intent on his part, and would likely garner significant MSM attention.

- Dave

...and that persuades them to vote for him in their primary, great.

Unfortunately, there will probably already be a presumptive Democratic nominee after super tuesday.

...just talking delegate-wise.

D-UH!

... I want to see the tracking poll numbers on this.

- Dave

NJ: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1298.xml

I'll be curious to see the Ohio tracking data after last night's debate: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1321.xml

- Dave

I don't have links, I think the source is the Mason Dixon polling hired by the Plain Dealer.

I expect he will do well here.