Internet Could Max Out in 2 Years, Study Says

Internet Could Max Out in 2 Years, Study Says
The Internet could run out of capacity before 2010 unless backbone providers bolster the pipes, researchers warn.

PC World
Saturday, November 24, 2007; 2:19 PM

Consumer and corporate use of the Internet could overload the current capacity and lead to brown-outs in two years unless backbone providers invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure, according to a study released last week.

A flood of new video and other Web content could overwhelm the Internet by 2010 unless backbone providers invest up to $137 billion in new capacity, more than double what service providers plan to invest, according to thestudy, by Nemertes Research Group, an independent analysis firm. In North America alone, backbone investments of $42 billion to $55 billion will be needed in the next three to five years to keep up with demand, Nemertes said.

The study is the first to "apply Moore's Law (or something very like it) to the pace of application innovation on the 'Net," the study says. "Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years."

The study confirms long-time concerns of the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA), an advocacy group focused on upgrading U.S. broadband networks, said Bruce Mehlman, co-chairman of the group. The group, with members including AT&T, Level 3 Communications, Corning, Americans for Tax Reform and the American Council of the Blind, has been warning people of the coming "exaflood" of video and other Web content that could clog its pipes.

The study gives "good, hard, unique data" on the IIA concerns about network capacity, Mehlman said. The Nemertes study suggests demand for Web applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peer file transfers and music downloads will accelerate, creating a demand for more capacity. Close to three-quarters of U.S. Internet users watched an average of 158 minutes of video in May and viewed more than 8.3 billion video streams, according to research from comScore, an analysis group.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/24/AR2007112400807.html

There are billions of unused black fiber that was laid in the internet boom of the 1990's. We are far from capacity. Also, files can be compressed even further and further if necessary.

At current prices, the companies who own it have no compelling reason to offer anything at this time.

But at some point, it will become profitable to light up some dark fiber for special segmented networks that are faster.

There is a lot of wasted traffic on the net that could be optimized to increase performance as well, but there's no money in that.

get rid or foxnews.com will help

:rofl:

it's the pumps. Switching capacity and scaling are where the real investment will be needed.

He was just off by a dozen years or so!

we'll consider allowing net neutrality. It's win-win for us!" thinks the broadband industry.

OK, in fairness, net neutrality was not in the article, but you can bet the industry is thinking about it still.

on us? Perhaps telecoms didn't charge the government enough for those, ahem, surveillance services? Of course, the citizen saw nothing of those 'incentives'. They were simply told that their privacy and anonymity were protected...!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

:boring:

program downloads, streaming video, or other stuff that can be almost as easily some other way.

Good recipes beat the crap out of stupid New Age woo and snake oil any day.

It seems like it would be cheaper to expand the internet and all the provider's main things into space where there is no gravity, more light, no rent, more room for all the new doodads, a lot quieter, no animals to gnaw into things, etc. Just thinking out loud.

I find this hard to believe...but then I am nothing if not a skeptic.

n/t

:roll eyes:

so I know something about this stuff. :hi:

When I read this article I saw that the crisis is in the "access" part of the internet infrastructure. Access is the part of the network from your home or office to the closest switching station. It looks like once the traffic gets to the switching station (or Central Office) there is plenty of capacity. In addition to lighting up the dark fiber in the core of the network telecoms can also change out their transmission electronics to faster equipment that can handle more traffic.

Access capacity is going to be much harder for the telecoms and cable providers to fix. Thinking in terms of the human circulatory system may help in describing this. Blood flows from the heart to the arteries and then into the capillaries, and then from the capillaries to the veins and back to the heart. The veins, arteries, and heart of the internet network have plenty of capacity. But all of those capillaries need to be upgraded to increase capacity. This will be an expensive and time-consuming endeavor.

Comcast and Verizon have been working on increasing the amount of fiber optic capacity in the access network for years, but there is still much more to do, especially in more rural areas. Neither wants to spend capital on old technologies, such as DSL. I would expect that older cable and DSL systems are going to see the brunt of the capacity issues while the access network capacity is upgraded.