Please bookmark this thread and laugh at me at the end of January if I'm wrong....

But I believe that we have weeks, not months, before the U.S. economy completely collapses. The news, even filtered through the bought-and-paid-for U.S. media, is uniformly awful. Just this morning the media reported that Black Friday sales were up; by afternoon this had been completely debunked (they were actually down 3.5%):

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21977888

The Federal government, with the dollar already plunging, reacted to that news and the sub-prime lending crisis by announcing an emergency infusion of cash:



And that sub-prime loan crisis? It is now directly responsible for the loss of up to 45,000 jobs:



Estimates on the losses due to this banking mess are estimated in the TRILLIONS of dollars.

Consumer and national debt are higher than they've ever been.

Housing values are collapsing.

The dollar is plunging in value.

Energy prices are rising and are expected to continue to do so.

Unlike the 90's, there is no technology boom to bail us out.

Unlike the early '00's, there is no housing boom to bail us out.

The fed's move today was the equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass. They are throwing cash out into the market with the hope that 1) it will get us through the holiday season, and 2) holiday spending will be strong enough to bail us out.

It won't be.

I am sure that the economy is about to collapse in a way that will make the Great Depression look like boom times. I hope I'm wrong. In fact, I invite each of you to bookmark this thread and throw it back in my face at the end of January if I am wrong.

In the meantime, here's some more reading material for you:

The Economy's $2 Trillion Worry
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071119_601375.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives

The Old Wall Street Bulls Throw in the Towel… It’s All Falling Apart (The Financial Bloodbath Continues)
http://www.almartinraw.com/public/column335.html

The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/parachutes.html

Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b56079a8-9b71-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

but have the same chill about things as you have. They aren't even trying hard to lie to us anymore.

hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.

That damned radio commercial keeps going through my head. I wish I would have purchased more last year...But, nope, what little I have is in the bank. Stupid me.

In times of financial crisis, bread tends to be worth far more than gold.

housing thing, which is a whole bubble.

But the country was drained by billions dollars a year to Iraq.

Maybe the Neocons are happy.

It has made the wealthy wealthier.

It has enriched corporations.

There has to be a huge segment that is disproportionately happy with what has taken place.

I'm simply stating that the "gold will solve all our problems" meme is a foolish scam.

Just to keep from crying.

This country is in deep doo-doo, and the Fed cannot stop the slide, even if they GAVE money away. It only accelerates the rate of increase of inflation by monetization, and makes the dollar worth even less.

An economic death spiral of deflationary pressures on real assets and inflation at the same time.

we all know the game they play...

And I agree with you, this will be the last time anybody will remember as "good times,:" for a while.

We've always been at war with EastAsia, too.

around news dump time

:-)

for months - a recent habit I can assure you -- and all the signs point to a complete collapse of the ponzi scheme that is the US economy. It's the derivatives that really scare me -- they seem to have derived their so called value from other nebulous monetary entities -- there seems to be no there, there.

We sold our house -- took our equity and ran -- but don't know where to put the money to keep it safe.

Hope we're both wrong.

For me as a ex-pat, I was pretty much on a buying spree when I was back in MN for the holidays. (I filled 2 suitcases) There were some incredible deals for charity (20% off, for only one day (this occurred twice for two different charities) and bought a whole wardrobe of clothing for less than £60. (six shirts, three trousers, three pairs of shoes).

My parents bought us this house in March (getting us the money for the mortgage). Now the house is worth more to them because the pound sterling for them went up against the dollar and if they had bought the house later, they would have had to draw out more dollars to get the amount of money to get the house.

However, I hope the housing market here goes down too... it's a bit crazy at the moment!

No good news for the financial market.

What will tomorrow bring?

I read Donald Rowe's free financial forecast.

http://www.wallstreetdigest.com Then go to "Hotline Updates" in the upper right hand corner for a free assessment.

He updates on Tuesdays and Fridays. Last Friday, the market was not fully open, so the last one was last Tuesday.

From Nov. 20th, partially quoted: "Stay fully invested! Stock prices in China, India, Asia and the emerging markets will outperform the U.S. stock market because of the falling dollar. Global/international investments will enhance your investment returns as the dollar declines against other currencies. Stay close to our telephone/e-mail/website Hotline Updates.

The offices of The Wall Street Digest will be closed November 22nd and 23rd for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The next Hotline Update will be on Tuesday, November 27, 2007, at 6:00 p.m. EST. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday!"

The financial TV news channel was dancing all around this stuff, and starting to talk about a "double bottom."

It is an epidemic in this country. The total collapse may be the only thing that saves this country as it will hopefully spark a revolution and the people will then be able to wrestle control of the government back from the corporations and the fascist elements within the system.

Wife and I are talking it out.

Retired people.

Politically active for years.

Lots of jeopardies out there.

We fear mostly for our employed children and young school aged grandchildren.

The only thing that will save this country is an economic overhaul.

Street protests don't do it. Code Pink and Cindy don't do it.
Libby indictment, Rove departure, and a looming Cheney impeachment don't do it.
Nancy and Harry and the pink tutu Dems don't do it.

When we are forced to look at our fellow Greater Depression victims and get out from behind our walls and cars and TV,
when we lift each other up,
when we care more about others than we care about ourselves,
when we share bread by candlelight,
We will be United.

Welcome to the real Underground.

Thought you were on Tour... :hi:

Diamond Dave Rejoins Van Halen

to be converted from a temp to permament at my job. Temps have NO job security and technically my three month contract expired in October..the economy is very very scary.....:scared:

My wife did lots of temp work years ago, and I did contract software work up until 2000. But there was always medical coverage.

We know what it is to do temporary work in a full employment market -- and that's a lot different.

of hiring (hopefully complete before xmas) me but I have a VERY shaky health insurance situation at the moment and I have chronic illnesses I need to go to the doc for which I can't at the moment....

Just this morning the media reported that Black Friday sales were up; by afternoon this had been completely debunked (they were actually down 3.5%)

The article you link to doesn't say anything about debunking or changing the stats. In fact, all the more complete news reports say that total spending was up but per shopper spending was down 3.5%. The per shopper stat is the one quoted in the article. The seeming up-down contradiction is simply because more shoppers were out shopping this year.

However, overall, I think your assessment is sound.

It's at 107.6, according to the Japan Times website, down from 116 at the beginning of November. It was in the mid 108 range at the end of last week.

At ¥116=$1, a payment of ¥100,000 from a customer is $862.07. At 107.6, ¥100,000 is $929.36.

Personally, I wonder if the Chinese and others who are disgusted with our foreign policy aren't just holding their breaths, hoping that we sabotage ourselves economically, since they don't feel that they can engage us militarily without calling down nuclear wrath upon themselves.

They might not have as far to fall or as shocking a landing, but the one thing every major economic power in the world is trying desperately to do right now, is to hold on to the side of that freakin' mountain.

Even 25 years ago the current economic crisis would not have rippled through the world in the same way it is now.

China owns most of our debt. If we go, they're like bankers holding a mortgage that's been defaulted on. Who would have the money to buy it, even at pennies on the dollar?

Wide-spread unreast may not be the problem there that it could become here. They have much more land per person to grow food on, they don't consume as much as we do in terms of raw goods. They would fall more gently, but trust me, if we go, so do they.



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

I have been reading the econ commentaries since the beginning of the year, and saving Mike Whitney's essays as text files. So far, everything he and the others have predicted has come (unfortunately) true.

The future looks decidedly unpleasant.

I promise not to laugh, whatever happens.

Tax the seller, tax the user.

Nothing would be better than a really green market of really green goods.
Might just save us from a depression.

As a secondary gain (hell, it might be a primary gain) you'd have a whole bunch of non-violent offenders to let out of jail. And at 22K dollars to 32 K dollars a year per inmate, that would be one heck of a savings.

:) I sure hope you are wrong :hi:

the american economy is too big a juggernaut to collapse completely between now and the end of january.

I think it's more like next fall before the election.

I think we have huge problems before us that will be worse than anyone (except a few) is predicting. A very rough time ahead.
:scared:

bookmarked

I rather see the impending economic collapse as a manipulated and controlled collapse, similar to those in the early 20th century. I don't think that it would be to their advantage to have a collapse with this much time before the '08 GE. I tend to think that we will be seeing a propaganda push to distance the idea of this economic mess from the hands of the republicans before such a collapse if it happens before the '08 GE. When we begin seeing those signs, or perhaps Cheney stepping down and being replaced by Giuliani...then the table will be set.

Then again, sometimes I am really, really wrong. Lets hope that we both are wrong. :hi:

until after the '08 elections. The question is, can they?

And she's old enough, and savvy enough to know. :shrug:

What I want to know, will the world catch the flu too?

during the 4Q. too many people consuming goods and thus stimulating the economy for the bottom to fall out. maybe in over the summer of 08 though...

Cities Losing Billions From Foreclosures

"The president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors said a rising tide of foreclosures threatens to "break the back of our national economy."

Douglas Palmer of Trenton, N.J., is attending a conference Tuesday in Detroit, where city leaders from across the country will talk about the nation's housing crisis.

"Not that long ago economists said housing was the backbone of our economy," said Palmer. "Today the foreclosure crisis has the potential to break the back of our economy, as well as the backs of millions of American families, if we don’t do something soon. We must not let the economic numbers mask the face of this tragedy –- the families who are struggling to pay their mortgages and stay in their homes."

<snip>

"We’ve all seen the headlines and read about how Wall Street is being impacted, but at the local level, Mayors are on the frontlines everyday and our constituents are looking to us for solutions," Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick said. "The foreclosure crisis is no longer just about mortgages, entire neighborhoods are being negatively affected on several levels. This issue is now the number one economic challenge of many major American cities."

http://www.theindychannel.com/money/14701689/detail.html

but not complete collapse. If we had a complete collapse, we wouldn't be able to log on at the end of January.

assholes, all of them. What did they think? That it wouldn't catch up to them? Somebody has to pay for this bullshit.

Every damn time I heard the Bush admin say home ownership was up as a sign of a good economy I just cringed because if these liars said it then it's obviously false. And now so many homes are foreclosed because people can't pay for them, and other homes are devalued, the housing bubble has definitely burst and it's taking other down with it.

God help us. I sure hope you're wrong about this. Our economy is pretty well diversified in spite of relying heavily on consumption. Americans do love to consume.