Rasmussen: Tie in Iowa,... Edwards tops list of 2nd Choices ....LINK

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

Rasmussen: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama Tied in Iowa

"The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 find Hillary Clinton at 27%, Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10% while Joe Biden earns 4% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants.
These results reflect little change from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted earlier in the month. In the previous survey Clinton had 29% support with Edwards at 25% and Obama at 24%."

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"Currently, in Iowa, Clinton attracts 30% of the vote from women while Obama earns 26% and Edwards 22%. Among men, it’s Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 23% (see crosstabs)."

"In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates."

MORE

the caucus voters who originally voted for that candidate can no longer vote for that candidate in the next round, nor for any other candidate who did not reach the 15% requirement. So they are forced to vote for another candidate that did reach the 15% requirement or not vote at all.

Being second choice is critical when the polls are this close heading into the caucuses.

and why Hillary is likely to lose since she is running third in that category--while only in a statistical dead-heat for first place.

... and they know exactly how it will work. Combine that with years of planning, organizing, and establishing a ground operation in Iowa that has been characterized as 'the class of the field.'

Edwards is just now starting his tv/media advertising in Iowa, so people there are unlikely to tired of Edwards' ads compared to the continuous advertising that HRC and BO did in spending almost $9 mil between them over the past several months.

If Obama supporters would choose Edwards as their second choice, it doesnt matter. WHat matters most is who has the Richardson, Biden, Kucinich, and Dodd supporters, because they most likely will not get above the 15 percent mark.

The plum supporters in this group would those who vote for Richardson first round if he gets less than 15%, as he is likely to have the most support at the caucuses other than JRE, BO or HRC.

when the supporters of those candidates who have less than 15% have to line up behind someone else.

... and the Iowa caucus rules must have the Clinton campaign reaching out hard to Biden, Dodd, and maybe even Richardson (with promises of what, one can only surmise).

- Dave

I am!

Edwards 2008!

I'm really beginning to believe he can beat the Hillary juggernaut.

Edwards may have the last laugh in Iowa. If he does, he will roll into New Hampshire with a lot of credibility with voters there.

... as many who've remained on the sidelines decide how to target their giving.

- Dave

... there will be only 5 days until the New Hampshire Primary.

Not much time to rehabilitate a 'bad showing' in Iowa.

second choice thats brutal.

... in the Romney campaign.

- Dave