So...Exit Polls Failed in Venezuela? - Democratic Underground

tritsofme

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Mon Dec-03-07 02:54 AM
Original message

So...Exit Polls Failed in Venezuela?

But no one seems to be questioning the validity of vote, not even St. Hugo himself.

Kind of flies in the face of the old TIA cult of personality that said there was only some sort of 0.0000043% chance that exit polls could be marginally wrong...

Maybe POLLS whether exit or pre-election aren't something that we should bow down and worship after all?

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MADem

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Mon Dec-03-07 02:59 AM
Response to Original message

1. What would you say if you were afraid the thing might pass, and were caught on tape saying

you voted no?

Did they even DO exit polls? What outfit did them? That's the key. Look for either bias or sloppiness in their methodology. They might not have assumed the 'bs' factor, where people lie to the pollster and tell him or her what he or she thinks the pollster wants to hear.

People pleasers are everywhere, in greater numbers than we realize.

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TheWraith

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Mon Dec-03-07 03:25 AM
Response to Reply #1

2. Doesn't hold water.

The assumption that people lie to the pollsters is at best a dubious one. Exit polls are almost invariably right. It's not impossible for them to be off. But it's extremely unlikely.

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tritsofme

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Mon Dec-03-07 03:33 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. Just by design

5% of the polls will be complete crap and 95% of them will be plus or minus the margin or error.

Not exactly an exact science that I would trust over actual vote totals.

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MADem

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Mon Dec-03-07 06:02 AM
Response to Reply #2

5. Look downthread. I agree with the poster who said

that the 'You're a TRAITOR' if you vote against this referendum might have weighed on those of Chavez's party who didn't like the idea of handing him all the power. If i were me, I'd fucking lie like a rug in those circumstances.

And the exit poll results were leaked early, in violation of VZ law. What's THAT about? http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/152093.html

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TheWraith

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Mon Dec-03-07 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. Okay, that I hadn't heard about.

That could definitely influence some minds.

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ShaneGR

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Mon Dec-03-07 04:05 AM
Response to Reply #1

4. Keep in mid, Chavez used the word "traitor" when describing people who might not support a yes vote

So people coming out might not have felt so comfortable admitting if they voted no.

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razzleberry

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Mon Dec-03-07 06:19 AM
Response to Original message

6. people lie, especially to an annoying prick asking ...

how you voted.

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tritsofme

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Mon Dec-03-07 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. Were you here in 2004

Shortly after the election, you would have been run out of town for suggesting that exit polls may not be infallible.

Its good to see such a silly consensus has changed.

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