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Getting A Grip On Reality Over Iran's Nuclear Program

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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 03:47 PM
Original message
Getting A Grip On Reality Over Iran's Nuclear Program
from HuffPost:




Michael Roston
Getting A Grip On Reality Over Iran's Nuclear Program
Posted December 3, 2007 | 02:07 PM (EST)




Pity the conservative thinker and reader haunted by the specter of a nuclear Iran. How would you feel if you got halfway through your day and someone punched a big hole in your already tenuous grasp on reality?

Vice President Cheney tried so hard to play his role of Big Daddy within the Big Daddy Party and protect the kids from facts that they were too young to deal with. But the intelligence community won, and finally we have professionals telling us what some of us knew: Iran's nuclear weapons program has long been more of a virtual threat, a diplomatic tool to keep its head above water in a complicated diplomatic ocean.

But don't worry, surrogates for the genius of our unitary vice president are already coming to the rescue. Check out some of the things they're saying.

The main line of response against the news from the US intelligence community that Iran's nuclear weapon program is not fearful boils down to one word: Iraq. We overestimated on Iraq, therefore, we're probably underestimating on Iran. Check out Gabriel Schoenfeld at Commentary:


...the latest NIE is not a rock-solid judgment, and as we have already seen in a number of other dramatic instances, even the intelligence community's rock-solid judgments might not be solid at all.



To further the idea that consistency is the hobgoblin of the little minds, another junior blogger echoes this principle:


From overestimating the threat, we're going in the polar opposite direction, and being wrong in underestimating the situation is just as dangerous - if not more so.



But it won't stop there. I guarantee you. Look at this conclusion taken from the NIE itself about why Iran stopped pursuing its nuclear weapon program:


Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.



In no time at all, watch for wags on the right to declare that Iran's decision to drop its nuclear program in late 2003 is proof that we should have invaded Iraq. By implementing the Bush Doctrine, and demonstrating that the US will take military action against proliferating boogeymen, they'll say we made Iran back down. Except that we didn't really know it until now. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-roston/getting-a-grip-on-reality_b_75124.html



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jljamison Donating Member (125 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 03:52 PM
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1. well what does curveball say about it?

He knows as much about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions as he did about Iraq's WMDs.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 03:58 PM
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2. They shifted tactics several months ago as a result of this NIE
Remember when they transitioned the attack Iran rationale from WMD's to 'fomenting terra in Iraq'.

They anticipated this months ago. The game is still on. The rationale is now 'Iran destabilizing a sovereign and democratic Iraq'.


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AlertLurker Donating Member (877 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 04:39 PM
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3. The problem is, the WH believes THE OPPOSITE!
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/world/04irantext.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

"Today’s National Intelligence Estimate offers some positive news. It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons."

"But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."
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