http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/dec2007/isra-d06.shtmlFar from ending the danger of war, the NIE is likely to prompt an intensification of preparations. Despite Bush’s claim not to have known of the report’s contents until this week, Israeli prime minister Olmert said that he, Barak and other Israeli officials were briefed in advance on the intelligence assessment last week when they visited Washington. Bush has just announced plans to visit Israel in early January for the first time in his presidency.
An editorial in the right-wing Jerusalem Post yesterday summed up the contempt in Israeli ruling circles for the NIE conclusions, and their determination to deal with Iran. “If one were looking for a new definition of chutzpa,” the newspaper declared, “it would be hard to do better than the latest US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. This document declares that Iran successfully hid its military nuclear program from the US for years, while claiming ‘moderate confidence’ that Iran is not hiding such a program now.”
The editorial does put its finger on a contradiction in the NIE, but a more obvious explanation is that Iran had no nuclear weapons programs even prior to 2003. Certainly, inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the past four years have produced scant evidence of any Iranian effort to manufacture nuclear weapons, despite being fed with information from US and Israeli intelligence.
The editorial concluded by declaring “some basic truths”—that Iran is “racing” to enrich uranium for a weapons program and “is a threat to the entire international order and economy”. And finally, with the US military option off the table in practice, due to the NIE, it left “only an Israeli military option, sanctions or living with an Iranian bomb”. The Post makes clear that it considers the first alternative to be the only viable one.
A “unilateral” Israeli strike on Iran has been canvassed in Washington for more than a year as one means for provoking Tehran and justifying massive American military retaliation. Now that the NIE has punched some large holes in the Bush administration’s propaganda, the Israeli option will undoubtedly be the subject of intense discussion in the White House and when Bush visits Israel next month.