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Okay, so and alQaeda type group assassinates Bhutto

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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:41 AM
Original message
Okay, so and alQaeda type group assassinates Bhutto
this not only throws Pakistan into chaos (which is good for anyone not sitting in power-like an alQaeda type group) but it destabilizes and weakens Musharaf's position. The elections may be delayed which extends the current power structure but also is fuel to the fire for a group such as this alQaeda type operation. The US loses not only the stabilizing force in Pakistan (Bhutto) but,as stated above, the established US ally (Musharaf) is weakened thus weakening the US and it sway in Pakistan. Add also that in losing both of these forces the US loses its ability to basically be the bookie who stands to profit no matter which of its players wins incrementally or otherwise.

It does sound plausable to me in that an alQaeda (or other militant fundamentalists) can only hope to gain power through literally having the whole entire environment blow up. They can't really expect to ever actually sit at the table but they can make life hell for everyone else and etch out a role simply as a disruptive presence.

That is what I have put together so far. ????? Am I missing a CIA angle or a Russian angle, what about the Chinese?
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:43 AM
Response to Original message
1. Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar, to quote Freud.
Edited on Fri Dec-28-07 09:44 AM by SteppingRazor
What appears to be a terrorist suicide bombing is, in fact, a terrorist suicide bombing.

I don't think here's any foreign-intelligence angle here.

Pakistani domestic intelligence, however, is possibly another story.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Yeah
I threw the last part in really to cover my ass and to sound all "worldly" and such

Who ever did this needs destabilization which could bring the Pakistani intelligence into it or the military.
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. Of course, you can't generalize about all members of a group, but ...
the military is generally pro-Musharraf, and I think they'd be pretty aware of what would happen to Musharraf if Bhutto was assassinated -- it would result in a loss of control, not an increase.

The ISI, on the other hand, has historically been vehemently anti-Bhutto, after Benazir's dad essentially castrated the organization back in the 1970s. It regained power afterward (under the auspices of the dictator that hanged Benazir's father), but I don't think the organization ever forgot. In fact, there's very strong evidence that the ISI rigged elections in the 1990s to prevent the Bhuttos' Pakistani People's Party from winning elections.

But even in the case of the ISI, if I had to hazard a guess, I would assume that the breach in Bhutto's security yesterday was the result of rogue agents, not a top-down order from the head of ISI, Nadeem Taj, who has been running the intelligence agency only about as long as Bhutto has been in the country.
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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Gotta agree here. There's enough local chicanery in that area (which I'm more than
averagely informed of since my hubby's family is in India) to narrow it down to the locals--and that still leaves hundreds of groups suspect.

They may be sympathetic to Taleban or aQ, but that doesn't mean they are working directly with them--despiste what Musharif, Bush, et al, want us to believe.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
20. Tariq Ali says that it's disturbing that so many Western papers
are running big al Qaida headlines in the absence of evidence. :shrug:
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demnan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. I agree
I've read some things here that hint at conspiracy but in this case I don't think the CIA had anything to do with it. I don't think we have enough intelligence in that part of the world to play a role at any rate. Our intelligence in this part of the world really sucks, as we've been shown.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. The Russians
Amazing isn't it how the Russians even as their entire system was falling down kept their assets alive and working in that part of the world while WE chalked up a victory and walked out of the room hooting and hollering and completely checked out of the game.

This applies to everyone here not just Repubs or Dems.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:48 AM
Response to Original message
4. I'm not sure it weakens Musharaf
Having literally stacked the government in his favor, he just may decide that it's in everyone's best interest to remain in power.

:headbang:
rocknation
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. NPR said it did
You aren't questioning NPR ...ARE YOU?!?!?!?
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TBUSA Donating Member (76 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
9. Inside job... ISI
With thousands lining her route, why would she pop up at just the moment when an assasin was along side her car? close enough to shoot. If he had followed her route, how could he not have benn discovered, with all the jostling going on?
She was told or prompted to stand at the 'right' time.
How many times during the ride did she pop up? anyone know?
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. You've got the whole chain of events wrong, though.
Edited on Fri Dec-28-07 10:07 AM by SteppingRazor
It wasn't a ride along a route. Benazir was leaving a rally and getting into a car. She poked her head out the sunroof, and that's when it went down. So, any assassin simply had to wait near her car. Now, even that smacks of a huge hole in security, of course. But that hole doesn't necessarily speak to a top-down order from the head of the ISI to have Bhutto killed. It could just as easily be the result of rogue agents in the ISI who are allied with terrorist groups -- in fact, it's even more likely, given the fact that the current head of the ISI is very new t his job, as I mentioned elsewhere in this thread.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. It seemed to me that the assassin was wired in case he couldn't get close enough
If he couldn't get close enough to shoot the bomb would probably do the job (that was a huge blast from the pics I have seen) or at least kill a lot of her supporters which makes them at least jittery and unsettled.

that being said it would be much easier and more likely for an ISI agent to be able to actually get that close
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. From what I heard this morning, it was the bomb that did the job.
Latest I heard was that Bhutto wasn't shot at all, but that the bomb shrapnel killed her:

"Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal said she had been killed by the bomb since there was no bullet wound on her body."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071227/ts_nm/pakistan_bhutto_dc
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. Yeah but that could just be cover for the bad security
they don't want to admit that someone got that close with a handgun

Then again maybe everyone in the area had an AK or a rifle with them????
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
13. From another angle. Think Cheney. It looks like he is in the nuke trade.
Edited on Fri Dec-28-07 10:43 AM by higher class
It looks like a partner is AQ Khan. It looks like Musharaf is a middle person-facilitator. Would Bhutto approve? If Rice brokered the Bhutto return, where does that leave Cheney-Rice? Someone said the CIA probably isn't involved. I doubt the CIA is involved in anything Cheney wants - he has the DIA. He has Blackwater because they work side by side with the military even though Blackwater reports to State-Rice. And the DIA knows as much about programming a suicide bomber-shooter as the CIA.

It's all pure speculation becuase their are so many d a r k s e c r e t s coming from the s e c r e t Cheney. Shhhh!

On the other hand, their may be other country motivation. Israel and the U.S. leaders want perpetual war. Perhaps Bhutto would seek some peace.

Perhaps there is some rift between China and Bhutto that we don't know about.

All kinds os people have run Bhutto through their little and big analyses to determine what's in it for them if Bhutto is/was a power and changed their deals with Musharaf.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Side note
It just hit me that Blackwater would be the perfect inside operation to report back to Cheney on what Rice is doing and what is discussed in State meetings. I know that sounds like whacky third world stuff but.....well this IS Dick Cheney's America
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. I wonder, however, whether Blackwater was just stuck on to State for
funding purposes - a need to get around COngress? Secret Sub-Governments find their own sub-paths around the Constitution, Bill of RIghts, and division purposes of government. In other words, I'm not sure Blackwater would have inside info about State and don't take direction from Rice (only on protection of visitors), but definitely take orders from the Pentagon on 'missions'. But, I may be wrong, I've never learned that much about State - they do have their own intelligence division - also aligned with the Pentagon.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
17. Who Would Benefit Most From Total Fucking Chaos In The Region?
Edited on Fri Dec-28-07 11:48 AM by Beetwasher
That's the predictable outcome of this event and those groups that would profit and/or benefit from "total fucking chaos" are the most likely suspects.

The sad truth is, there will NEVER be closure on this. We will NEVER know the truth. The disinformation and propoganda is flying fast and furious from every direction.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
18. What is missing is they are probably trying to do the same to a lot of other political leaders
and that message has rung clear if you happen to be the president of a democracy, no doubt!
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Two of Sharif's people were killed the same day, in what look like
coordinated attacks on both of the major opposition parties.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-28-07 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
19. Is there any evidence at all that this was an act of terrorism? n/t
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