IA Caucus for predicting the eventual nominee and presidental winner...

An analysis @ this link.

http://www.neatorama.com/2008/01/04/iowa-caucus-vs-new-hampshire-primary-which-is-the-better-predictor/

Then let's discuss...looks like this election could be historical in other ways as well. Does anyone have any analysis on turnout?

for those too lazy to click the link...

2000
Won the Primary Al Gore
Won the Party Nomination Al Gore
Won the Election George W. Bush

2004
Won the Primary John Kerry
Won the Party Nomination John Kerry
Won the Election George W. Bush


...all we have to do is keep this election is ensure that the Supreme Court isn't the group selecting the president and that the election isn't stolen via vote switching and vote suppression

1972. Muskie quit the race. He was a front runner, won Iowa, but it was clear Mcgovern had momentum. Muskie even won NH barely, but upstart McGovern was on the rise. Obama is no Muskie. If anything, Obama is like McGovern here.

1976. Carter won IA and NH and steamrolled Wallace.

1980. Carter/Mondale Incumbent

1984. Gary Hart came from nowhere to place well in Iowa, but lost, his momentum carries him to a win in NH, but his campaign dies owing to scandal. Mondale takes it. Here Mondale was the Obama-like upstart but his campaign got derailed.

1988. Dukakis places third in IA, but first in NH, then picked up...primaries bitter and his opponents melted, this was the one where Plagiarism charges derailed Biden early. Here, Dukakis was reeling from Iowa, but the Biden plagiarism and NH's first uncontested primary was near MA so he could right the ship. This is the best model for Hillary, and emphasizes the importance of NH.

1992. Clinton ahead nationally does not contest IA because Tom Harkin is in the race. NH run derailed by scandal, but parlays his 2nd place finish as the comeback kid. Tsongas slips in the southern states as Clinton regains the favorite status and rolls on. Another model here for Hillary, but she needs to turn things around. Unlike Bill, Hillary will not roll over her opponents in the southern states, so NH is the firewall.

1996. Clinton/Gore Incumbent

2000. Gore wins IA and NH on the way to the nomination.

2004. Kerry wins IA and NH on the way to the nomination. IA momentum credited for the turnaround of a sagging campaign.