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Given his performance tonight I think J. Edwards will be the surprise of the NH primary

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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 02:41 AM
Original message
Given his performance tonight I think J. Edwards will be the surprise of the NH primary
No, not win--Obama will win, but I think he will either come in second or be a very close third behind Hillary. If Obama wins by the kind of margin he got in Iowa and HRC and JE are neck and neck for second place I think that will be interpeted as a real defeat for HRC and a surprisingly strong showing for Edwards. I was much interested in the ARG poll I posted earlier showing that JE did get a pretty good bounce out of Iowa (5-points compared to 7 for Obama) and in that poll is trailing HRC by only six (yes, I know other polls show a bigger gap), but his showing tonight and energinic campaining I think will help in these last two days of the campaign.
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Blackhatjack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 02:47 AM
Response to Original message
1. Edwards is going to surprise a lot of people in N.H. --Not the MSM, trying to marginalize him
The MSM knows a direct threat to their own corporate agendas when they see one, and Edwards is one.

Edwards is most likely going to best Clinton in N.H. and that will have disasterous results for Hillary.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
2. Viewership
Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 02:51 AM by grantcart
Does anybody have any idea how many in NH were watching?
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LostInAnomie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 02:57 AM
Response to Original message
3. I'd love for that to be true.
Edwards was fantastic tonight and deserves to get a nice bump from the debate. The problem is that the media WILL NOT cover him. I guarantee that tomorrow the only news of the debate (and so far the headlines confirm this) will be about Clinton criticizing Obama about some crap. The only clips from the debate that they will show of Edwards will be what he said right before Hillary's rant, and him apologizing for making fun of her jacket.
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2hip Donating Member (350 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 03:18 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Wait - this will make you smile......
There's a propitious opening in the media black-out ... Edwards will be on This Week with George Stephanopoulos tomorrow morning! (YES!)

This is phenomenal timing! He'll get to solidify the points he made at the debates while it's still fresh on everyone's mind.




  Edwards '08 tees!
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LostInAnomie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 03:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Let's just hope (former Clintonite) George Stephanopoulos lets him talk.
I have a feeling it will be a trash-fest on Edwards. Either that, or all the questions will involve Obama or Clinton.
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2hip Donating Member (350 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 03:39 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. To his credit, Edwards consistently stays On Target
It's one of his strong points. I doubt he'll let the dialogue segue too far. It'll be interesting to see exactly how deftly he handles it.



  Edwards '08 tees!
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 03:30 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. George was quite complimentary
of Edwards after the debate, also. It should be a good interview.
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 03:29 AM
Response to Original message
6. I thought he was amazing tonight.
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meowomon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 05:31 AM
Response to Original message
9. Elizabeth has been his greatest asset
Her dignity and strength of character are unimpeachable. And her amazing warm smile and eyes shine with such kindness. But Michelle kicks ass too! Either way, things are going to change.

We can't continue down the road that the Bush administration and the complicit congress have steered this country. Hillary just doesn't get it. Don't forget, she was a Republican at one time.
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dazzlerazzle Donating Member (329 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 08:02 AM
Response to Original message
10. John Edwards showing
The possibility of Hillary losing both NH and SC is becoming believable. Even if she chooses to change her advisers after a New Hampshire loss, she will have to work hard and fast to move the South Carolina voters in her favor. I kind of think we are going to "super Tuesday" this time.
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mwb970 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
11. I thought JE would be the surprise of the Iowa caucuses.
But he came in second and was barely mentioned in the breathless Obama-Hillary, Obama-Hillary, Obama-Hillary "news" coverage.

Why will it be different in NH?
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shadowknows69 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
12. From your keyboard to the Gods' ears (assuming they have ears)
Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 08:46 AM by shadowknows69
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
13. Zogby has an interesting "observation" in his poll
The latest Zogby/C-Span poll has the race Hillary 31 Obama 30 and Edwards 20, but these numbers (a tracking poll) are only 50% after Iowa and Zogby says, "there is movement" and will be more telling in the next two samples, but he said there are two observations he needed to make: "Edwards is stable" and while Obama gets the lion share of leaners Edwards gets "a smaller share" and Hillary is "being shut out" by leaners. What it sounds like to me is that Hillary is in free fall while Edwards is remaining stable and maybe gaining a little. I think there is a very real possibility that Edwards will come in second in NH.
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CorpGovActivist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-06-08 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
14. I Think Edwards Will Have Peeled away...
... enough of her support to overtake second place.

- Dave
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