Could this be the biggest pollster disaster since Truman vs. Dewey in '48?

book_worm

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:35 PM
Original message

Could this be the biggest pollster disaster since Truman vs. Dewey in '48?

Every poll showed Obama leading 7-12 points and tonight it looks like it will be HRC by at least 2-3 points. I wonder what the pollsters will say tomorrow?

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lala_rawraw

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:36 PM
Response to Original message

1. something is wrong...

i don't think it is the polls, except of course for the Fox poll, which strangely got this right.

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LaPera

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:37 PM
Response to Original message

2. This is a fucking tiny little state this means nothing....read your history

Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 10:38 PM by LaPera

Truman vs. Dewey in '48 was NATIONWIDE ALL 48 STATES!!

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book_worm

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. calm down

I know history pretty damn well. why do people have do be so rude? It was just used as an example of flawed polling.

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Gman

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:39 PM
Response to Original message

3. It's a friggin' small state primary in a very volatile atmosphere

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spanone

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:41 PM
Response to Original message

5. the polls showed Kerry winning in 2006...

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milkyway

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:42 PM
Response to Original message

6. There was nothing wrong with the polls. See my post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2635483

btw, the problem with Truman/Dewey was not polls from the previous day. It was that the election was called for Dewey, I assume based on actual results (I don't think their were exit polls back then).

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book_worm

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Tue Jan-08-08 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. some pollsters like Roper stopped polling two weeks before the election

because as they said at the time it would be "a waste of time"

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