If the polls say that Obama will win SC by 10% points..?

Would you believe them? What if they say that Hillary will win SC by 6% points? Would you believe that? When are we going to realize that they don't know what the hell they are talking about? One person's guess is as good as another. Weigh those polls carefully before committing.

They will say Sen. Clinton will win by six points, and the result will be in fact a razor thin nail-biter like tonight, with Sen. Obama likely to be the one who emerges on top by a whisker....

They will pick Obama to win by about 6% and Hillary will win by a whisker. Then all the pundits will be asking why so many black people voted for Hillary? Then they will say it was because they love Bill so much... :-)

Is why they make the horses actually run around the track before money changes hands....

Bet it all on the old grey mule.

"The race may not be always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

A helluva night though, eh?

What cheers me most is that the turnout to our primary ran about twice that to the enemy's show. A propitious augery....

I figure in an error margin of +/- 100%. Admittedly, I suck at math but I don't trust polling. It's like predicting the weather.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kuo/obama-polls-and-race_b_80574.html

Obama, Polls and Race

By David Kuo

It now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong... very wrong. The last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton. CBS had him +7. USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10.

With more than 60% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -3. 40% of precincts still need to report. Things may change. But this gap really is extraordinary. Chances are nil that Obama is going to win overwhelmingly. The polls were hugely wrong.

Why?

It is a return to the race-gap polling problems of the 1980s and 1990s:

This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African-American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.

(more.. )

Also, mentioned by a newscaster tonight. I don't think it would happen in SC though.

Another big effect, also suggested by one of the newscasters was the large turn out from the warm weather. Usually, it's about 20 degrees here in January. Today it was 60. So, a lot of the older voters got to vote for Hillary.