Newshour discussion of New Hampshire, Clinton and Obama

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http://media.pbs.org/ramgen/newshour/expansion/2008/01/09/20080109_analysis28.rm?altplay=20080109_analysis28.rm



JIM LEHRER: Now, more on the stories behind New Hampshire's last night numbers.


MARGARET WARNER: And for that, we turn to Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, and Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the National Journal's political daily The Hotline.

So let's do what we know the campaigns are doing, which is pour over the entrails of last night's results.

Amy, how did Hillary Clinton put this together? How did she end up winning by 3 points over Barack Obama?

AMY WALTER, The National Journal: Well, we've heard so much about the woman factor. And the fact was that it was a considerable number of women who turned out to vote, even a little bit higher than in 2004.

Fifty-four percent of voters in the Democratic primary last time around, 2004, women, this time, 57 percent, and she won almost half of them. She won across the board, too, working women, you know, married women. She really did much better, certainly than she did in Iowa, but much better than I think anybody had expected.

The real story, though, I think is -- the divide here is on the socioeconomic issues between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And, quite frankly, even though John Edwards running as a populist, he was never really part of the debate for many of these voters, who really thought, if you made less than $50,000, you supported Hillary Clinton.

If you did not have a college degree, you supported Hillary Clinton. If you thought the economy was worsening, you supported Hillary Clinton. If you thought things were going well, you had a postgraduate degree, you were making more than $100,000 a year, you voted for Barack Obama.

And it really almost went exactly down the line as that.

MARGARET WARNER: And is this typical of what they're going to find -- in terms of what the electorate looked like in New Hampshire, if anything, didn't you say last night it tends to be a little wealthier and a little more upscale than elsewhere?

STUART ROTHENBERG: Right, we would have assumed that after Iowa this would have been great territory for Barack Obama. But a couple of points.

First, as Amy pointed out, there were more women who voted this time than four years ago. There were also more Democrats. Now, listeners may say, "That's awfully strange. How can there be more -- this was a Democratic primary."

Last time, there were even numbers -- when I say last time, I mean 2004 -- there were even numbers of independents and Democrats. This time, there were 54 percent Democrats, a significant increase of 6 points, and Senator Clinton did better with core voter groups, core Democratic voter groups, and you can't get any more core Democratic voter groups than self-identified Democrats.

She did better among people who were very worried about the economy, and that number went up from four years ago. The same question was asked. And four years ago, 42 percent of people said they were very worried about the economy. This time, it was 58 percent. Senator Clinton won them.

So across the board, and certainly on these economic measures that Amy talked about, the makeup of the electorate was more suited to Senator Clinton, and she did better with those people.

full interview
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june08/analysts_01-09.html