"Why Hillary Will Win Nevada "

... I am providing an analysis of why I feel Hillary will do well in Nevada and probably win the caucuses by 2-3%. I am also a Hillary partisan, as most Kossacks will be aware.

Hillary's Endorsements



The endorsement list reads like a dream-list for Hillary. Shelley Berkley, Rory Reid and Dina Titus sit atop the Las Vegas Democratic machine which is a smaller version of the Chicago machine that was so effective for Obama in neighbouring Iowa. The combination of Berkley, Reid and Titus can be relied on to deliver big, and there is a strong chance they will. Likewise having the support of Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera and Assemblyman Ruben J. Kihuen, two of Nevada's top Latino politicians can likewise be relied upon to make major inroads into the Latino community for Hillary. Ruben, who ran Kerry's Latino outreach campaign, is a major up-and-coming star in the Latin community. A young man blessed with extraordinary good looks and powerful speaking ability in both English and Spanish, he is widely looked to as the "Barack Obama" of Nevada politics.

~snip~

Conclusion with Unions: With the unions, it will all be about turn out and who can keep their ranks from breaking. Hillary's union ranks are already tight and not likely to break. Obama's ranks are already fractured in Las Vegas and the Upstate along both Latino support lines and Upstate-Downstate lines, so Obama is on the back foot in terms of breakage with a slight front foot in terms of overall plurality numbers.

Upstate-Downstate Divide: Like in New York, Minnesota and Michigan, there is a big geographic divide in voting in Nevada. With the perception of Las Vegas getting all the attention in the south, and the more rural and sparsely distributed Upstaters tending to get left out. Hillary is leading in the Upstate by huge margins both union and non-union especially in the rural areas. Look at Upper Michigan where over 20 counties voted Hillary 75+ when in the rest of the state she got 55%. Hillary will clean up in the rural and remote areas, and it is these voters which will likely throw her over the top.

~snip~

WHO WILL WIN NEVADA
Being as I did predict New Hampshire quite well between Hillary and Obama, and considering the above analysis, I will come out with a prediction, which this time is actually very close to where the polls are now.

HILLARY 40%
OBAMA 37%
EDWARDS 23%

And I will further predict that it will be a high turnout Upstate for Hillary which will clinch the state victory over a razor thin small Obama lead in Las Vegas and overall tie in Clark County. So I am out on the branch again. ... Anyway I welcome all or any critiques of my critique. I am no expert on Nevada, but I certainly enjoyed my time there and learning about the great Silver State.