Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show - HuffPo

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Columbia, S.C. -- Barack Obama is heading into the January 26 South Carolina Democratic primary powered by a solid lead in each of the most recent 11 polls taken here, with African American voters and a slice of the white electorate set to put him over the top next Saturday.

While Obama is expected to pick up one out of five white Democratic primary voters, his margin among such voters in this deep Southern state lags from three to fourteen percentage points behind his support among whites nationally, depending on the survey. This lag, which appears at present to hold across the entire South, challenges one of the central claims of the Obama campaign: that he is a more viable general election candidate than Hillary Clinton.

Additional poll data from Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA studies also produce findings which run counter to the hopes and expectations of many of Obama's supporters here in South Carolina.

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If, as a number of Democratic strategists argue, the party were to write off the states of the deep South and limit efforts in the region to Florida and perhaps some states on the periphery such as Arkansas and Tennessee, Obama's apparent difficulties with white Democrats -- ranging from slight to very substantial -- would not be a significant factor in the general election. Instead, his strength with independent whites outside the South could prove to be a more important matter in assessing his viability in November.

There are a number of signals pointing to difficulties for Obama in the South.

In national surveys of white voters, conducted by television networks and newspapers, Obama has generally run ahead of John Edwards and behind Hillary Clinton. In the South, however, Edwards has run consistently ahead of Obama among whites.

Confirming Obama's relative vulnerability in the South is MIT political scientist Stephen Ansolabehere, one of the nation's leading experts on public opinion surveys who has helped coordinate a huge academically-based data collection program, including 10,000 interviews conducted in December. He found that "Obama comes in third among the white southern Democrats. Clinton gets 36 percent, Edwards 24 percent and Obama 17 percent." This amounts to a 19 point spread between Clinton and Obama, and a significant 7 point spread between Edwards and Obama.

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More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/19/obama-faces-white-resista_n_82300.html

Statistics makes my head hurt.

:banghead:

made pro-REagan and pro-Repub (party of ideas) statements? Was he trying to reassure white voters? Will he be another Colin Powell?

whereas Colin Powell is a well-known military and national figure and many Southerners would gladly vote for him.

would gladly vote for Colin Powell and not Obama?

From my viewpoint, the same folk who could not vote for Obama would not vote for Powell for the same reasons.

"Obama hasn't earned his stripes yet" is probably a big reason.

Writing off a few states is fine (Texas, Mississippi, etc.), but I will not put up with our nominee--whoever that person is--just ignoring the South and handing the region over to the Republic nominee on a silver platter just because he/she gets scared by a few poll numbers.

the south.

I have a bridge for sale. No Democrat will carry a Southern state this election except possibly Florida, which isn't that Southern in culture, and maybe Virginia.

And before anyone clicks on my profile and disregards my words because of the state that is listed there, for 22 years I lived two hours from the Gulf of Mexico.

The Deep South is a long-term project for the Democratic Party. There is no strong liberal tradition there, and it would need to be built from scratch. The Midwest and Lakes states have a history of unions, a strong labor community. The West has a freedom-loving libertarian streak.

The South has the aftermath of years of institutionalized racism, and a very strong fundy-authoritarian bent. I say this as one who has lived there.

In 2006 we picked up seats in every region except the South, unless you count Virginia, and it took a conservative to eke out a 9000-vote win there. Better to stay liberal, stay progressive, and win nationally. It will be better for the South if we have a progressive President, even in that President doesn't win a single state in the Southeast.

Maybe with Jim Webb as the VP? After all they just surprised the nation by electing him.

and with Clark on the ticket, she may do okay in VA and some others as well.