Humph....Imagine that! Asian Markets are trading higher tonight and NO ONE IS PANICKING!!!!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asia-markets-soar-buyers-return/story.aspx?guid=%7BFD9018E7%2D4CF7%2D4267%2D9E6C%2D4C895FD55269%7D

Wow. Imagine that. Not one single thread to that effect.

Ya gotta love DU.

ALL DRAMA, ALL THE TIME! (except when it isn't called for, then we're all quiet 'n stuff)

With all the threads of late re: the markets and the economy, I am becoming more and more convinced that it is time to SHORT Gold and go long US Stocks. Because the herd is rarely if ever correct.

For those of you that are worried these days...relax. Selling low and buying high NEVER made anybody rich and unless your entire portfolio was tied up in Housing and Financial's, your 401(K) will be just fine.


And for the record, NO, I am not blind to the underlying difficulties that the economy is facing and I am not denying that we are headed for a recessionary period. But those of you reading this that give credence to the people that are CONVINCED we are going to be in a depression in 6 months or a year......sheesh....relax, for fucks sake.

You've seen recessions before.

It ain't the end of the world.

speculation. MKJ

edit, fewer words.

"Flock"

As in "The flock is rarely correct".

Because, after all, the several score of VERY VOCAL DU'rs that feel that way can barely be considered a herd.

And for the record, the herd is still rarely correct.

McMansions screaming for energy and housing single families who can no longer afford the insane mortgage?

Secondary and tertiary paper objects, derivatives?

A bad ass war machine? The deep smoking hole that was Iraq?

That new flatscreen over there?

Did you see the commercial with the high-def flowers? They are tulips.

You must have your head in the "financial" sand if you believe that everything is hunky dory with the economy,

The U.S. economy is built soley on debt and consumption which is not sustainable over the long run. Currently, we're still working our way through a maze of really bad housing debt which is destroying the financial sector.

The Asian markets are trading higher because the Fed's easing helps the financial sector in short term, but this won't last as mortgage resets are still occuring.

Resolution Trust Corporation? Some people lost money, and some of us made money.

on the savings and loan money machine. at that time they made about 20 dollars an hour between them and by the time it was over they had over 100,000 in cash.they had notes that were still paying 15-17% well into the early 90`s. the s&l were begging them to go into annuities which they did at about 70 thousand...my mom was a bookkeeper all her life and never had a credit card.

for the first poster to ignore my last paragraph.

Well done.

SOME drama is warranted. But by no means is the drama seen the last 48 hours warranted.

Well...excuse me...it is entirely warranted if your entire economic perspective is the next 18 months. Then by all means, drama away.

That's it and that's all. We have no growing industries, no wage growth, and no job growth. Our entire economy is based on housing prices which fuels our consumption.

We have a long term, major systemic problem which cannot be solved by lowering interest rates. It's much, much bigger than that.

Or John Deere Tractors in Iowa. Or any number of the thousands of other companies that will do record sales this year.

Yeah. The entire economy is tied to housing. Well, the draw down is certainly due in part to the difficulties in that sector, but that is not what the US is completely about.

Is it all rosy? Of course not. But the entire US economy is by no means tied only to housing.

As far as lowering interest rates, I did not mention them and I make no comment on that development. This thread merely points out the hysteria of late on this message board.

ALL mfg jobs are heading over to China.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=33067&mesg_id=33067

Having lived through market swings for 50+ years I've learned to not panic.

I tried interjecting some calm into what was a highly emotional unfolding for some but I doubt many paid attention.

There will be no crash.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2733054#2740557




              Edwards '08 tees!

:eyes:

Good one.

The markets are rejoicing that Helicopter Ben is bending over backwards to accomodate them by aggressively lowering interest rates. Don't worry though, inflation will continue to get worse and this lowering of interest rates won't get people taking out new loans b/c everyone is tapped out already, so the markets will panic and fall again after a week or two.

We will all pay for this with the most vicious tax of them all...hyperinflation.

helicopter to avoid a recession. Ultimately, the only way to dissolve all the debt is hyperinflation. Sadly, hyperinflation is an industrial grade solvent which wipes out the middle class.

Steady there, Dick.

As I said, I am under no delusions about the current financial difficulties this country faces. The point of this thread is merely to illuminate how overly dramatic DU has been of late with regard to the activity of the equities markets.

Dozens of threads when the futures indicate a rough day is ahead but not a peep when the news is less than dismal.

I just find that interesting.

In retrospect, I've just realized that my family uses that phrase in ways
that are not easy to explain (because I've been thinking
about how to explain it, and nothing really quite fits.)

If you took offense, please accept my apology, as I intended none.

I kinda understand where you're coming from with your OP here,
but I disagree that the current level of "drama" is too much.

I honestly feel that, in 12 months time, many of the most
"over the top" posts here will seem quite reasonable in hindsight.

You have always struck me as a reasonable sort so I merely responded to the words and took no notice of tone, if you catch my drift.

As far as the level of drama is concerned..well....it does strike me as kind of humorous, that's all.

I have a book I bought way the hell back in 1977 titled "Crisis Investing". The author was absolutely CONVINCED we were heading for a 1930's style depression that would last for decades because we were no longer tied to the Gold standard.

That sort of hyperbole, panic, naysaying etc. has been going on for a very long time. It is just interesting to read how DU'rs are reacting these days.

Some of the predictions of what would happen on the NYSE on Tuesday were almost absurd.

The equivalent event today of what happened back in 1987 would be a drop in the DOW of about 2200 points!

2200 POINTS! The futures weren't even close to that and as it turned out, it was just another moderately down day.

Hell, if any of us could really accurately predict what was going to happen on the stock market tomorrow, do you think we would be typing onto DU? Hell no! We would all be eating lobster and cracked crab on the beach with Dan and Jamie Lee waving to us from the sailboat anchored 25 yards offshore.

I've seen at least seven major panics in the past six years. I cannot make an argument that any of them have led to particularly much of anything. Might we go into a recession, or are we already there? Most probably. Will people be hurt? Oh yes. Will it be something we cannot deal with? Absolutely not.

That will be how we will "deal" with this.

:think:

And not a single "1" in there.

Guess my shift key was working, huh?

:think:

Not only that, it got you to post twice!

Effective, if nothing else, eh Skippy?

This is likely the 1st 'economy' thread I have posted in in a few months.


We got all our $$$ out into Reals, S American growth funds, E European growth funds, and gold a few years ago.


No doom and gloom here.

Or even a year.

I think we're facing the potential for a 1987 style recession. I hope we avoid it, however.

Some of us have seen recessions like this before others were blind, too young, or even not born yet. Yep, we're getting old.

Be kind. It's like losing ones innocence all over again. Except without any of the fun.

:eyes:

...but why is it a good thing that the asian markets are up? Could this just mean that money is flowing into their markets while flowing out of ours, or perhaps the thinking is, with the rate cuts, we'll borrow more cash to buy more of their stuff?

Fear and Greed.

The companies traded on the overseas markets not only do business with the US, they do business with the rest of the world and the perceived potential (or lack thereof) of future profits/earnings is what drives prices up and/or down.

Yesterday the perception was earnings or profits would be down. = Fear

Today stocks look cheaper than they did 48 hours ago and therefore present a potential for a greater return on investment. = Greed.


Same old shit, different shoe.

For example, there might be a year we are up 10%, but Brazil is up 50%. There may be a year we are down 15% and Japan is down 30%. However, the general direction is the same. Global financial markets are remarkably closely linked.

of nearly 40,000 in late 1989 or so versus 15,000 today. So it's got a long climb before it catches up to other markets.

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/about/history_4.html

Back in early 1990, Japanese stockbrokers were saying "50,000 is no longer a dream!" Just like a broker I knew was saying "Dow 30,000, here we come!" just after bu$h was selected.

A friend of mine saw the $40K he put into the market drop to $4K.He took it better then I thought he would, saying he had lost 90% but others did worse. I told him he'd have to make 900% on that $4K to break even and he just got real quiet. When they say the Dow had been doing so well recently, I'm not sure who's been benefiting.

if they had not replaced Woolworth's with Wal-Mart?

I probably shouldn't have used it as an example. It applies in recent years, but not since 1990. Since 1990 everyone else is up huge while Japan is down.

:rofl: :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Great stuff.

You should do stand up.

Foreclosures are up considerably. A smart fellow like yourself can really take advantage of Americans with shattered dreams...Also the US Health Care system is the very best in the world...USA USA USA USA

I've been thinking that for many years...

"Not one single thread to that effect." What is this? And I've seen others. You are not alone in the cave.

It's not the end of us, but we're not doing well. Who the hell cares what the market's doing anywhere when we have the highest unemployment rate in the nation, the longest slump in employment rates since the Great Depression (longer now, this month), and one of the highest foreclosure rates. Actual people are really hurting here, but hey, as long as you make your killing in the market, I guess it's all good. :eyes:

If that hadn't happened, the DOW would of dropped over a 1000.

predator, er, I mean, investor class on their good fortune. While you're rolling in your "buy low, sell high" world, the rest of us are trying to hang on to both of our minimum-wage paying jobs and keep a roof over our heads and trying to figure out how the fuck we're going to feed a family of 4 on $50.00 a week when the price of milk just went up 30%. Cheers! :sarcasm:

... unprecedented, and unprecedently bad, between meetings cut.

The Fed cuts help the markets a lot more than they do the actual economy.

I've never said there will be a depression, but ruling one out would be foolhardy. At the very least we ARE going to have a long recession, that's bad enough.

And as someone who clearly plays the markets, you should know full well that a rally day or two in the midst of down days doesn't mean much at all. Markets never go straight down, too many traders cannot accept reality.