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George Soros: "The worst market crisis in 60 years"

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StefanX Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:14 PM
Original message
George Soros: "The worst market crisis in 60 years"
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 02:15 PM by StefanX
The US is headed for its worst economic crisis "since the second world war". Now even George Soros is saying it.

There's going to be some major pain felt all around in the good ole US of A. The only question now is, who's gonna get stuck shouldering most of that pain: the Corporations and the Media - or We The People?

And what are the candidates' plans for dealing with this little upcoming financial problem? Is this being discussed enough?

The worst market crisis in 60 years
- by George Soros
- pub 22 Jan 2008 - in The Financial Times of London

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c91e-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html

In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of WW2 at intervals ranging from four to 10 years ... However, there is a profound difference: ... The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

{There has been a} ... failure to recognise a ... connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral...

... Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity ... That created a system of ... moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in ... the magic of the marketplace ...

... The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared ...

... Everything that could go wrong did. ... That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war ...

... The Fed may no longer be in a position to {avoid a recession}. With oil, food and other commodities firm ... the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. {I'm not sure what this means, but it sounds like something horribly backwards and unprecedented. I think it means that the Fed's ability to "print" money is no longer relevant - because there's already too much 'funny money' out there?} Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end ...

... a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US ...

via http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-very-blunt-warnings-from-soros-el.html


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katty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. thx for posting...very informative
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enid602 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. sounds better
"The US is headed for its worst economic crisis "since the second world war". " I guess that sounds a bit better than 'its worst economic crisis since the Depression.'
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
3. Oh, please. It's the SAME crisis of 35+ years ago
and for exactly the same reason.
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Ganja Ninja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. Hey! Here's an idea.
Why don't we put all our Social Security funds into the markets? Pretty good huh?

:banghead:
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I think the main reason that hasn't happened is that they have all
Been wastd on a pretty pointless war.
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HamdenRice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:05 PM
Response to Original message
6. "the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield"
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 03:08 PM by HamdenRice
This is what he means: The Fed has the ability to stimulate the economy by lowering short term interest rates. That's what the Fed did yesterday. This then becomes one of the prevailing or benchmark interest rates, like the prime rate or LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate).

The problem is that at the same time the Fed is lowering interest rates, the U.S. Government is massively borrowing at a prevailing or benchmark rate. As the government essentially lowers the interest rate on its own borrowing, its bonds become less attractive to investors -- especially overseas investors and central banks in Asia who have amassed hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and treasury bills. They would have less appetite for purchasing US treasury bills because their return, the interest rate, would be lower. Therefore, there would be an excess dollars, which means the value of the dollar would decline even further relative to the Euro.

Investors purchasing long term bonds would worry that dollar denominated investments, like longer term treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds, could in the long term erode in value as the dollar erodes in value. Therefore, they would demand higher long term interest rates in order to compensate themselves for the risk of a dollar decline.

Many businesses and corporations borrow for the long term (for example, the amount of time it takes to build a factory, make profits and pay off loans). Therefore high long term interest rates are a drag on growth and investment.

The short term "fix" becomes a long term drag on the economy.
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:17 PM
Response to Original message
7. No Soros America is still got lots of hardworking and
brilliant people and lots of resources
We don't need oil

I think this is the shift of change
if they want to get this economy going
the Reality is they have to pay people decent wages to get it going

Corporations had their time and they made the decline in America
Greed thieves and killers

the apathy that Americans have will awaken (shift) when you get hungry you start looking for solutions

I can see the Republican party never recovering after this
its post mortem
They have brought Americans into two Depressions and Dems have had to get them out
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cutlassmama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
8. The Dow close 300 points up today.
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ordinaryaveragegirl Donating Member (853 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:30 PM
Response to Original message
9. What's really sad...
America has gotten rich and powerful thanks to greedy corportations, and the workers took it on the chin. How many people are able to actually afford to make a living on one income nowadays? It used to be commonplace. Everything has skyrocketed in dollar amounts in the last 50 years...except wages. More people are in poverty than ever before. American jobs are being outsourced to the lowest bidder. The real estate market has tanked, and the stock market is well on its way. It could take us a long time to climb out from under this mess.
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. yep; wages must increase, but how? i don't see it happening. we are governed by robber-
barons and informed by a media totally owned by the robber barons.
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
10. the credit boom was caused by wages not keeping up with cost of living; that is
the root of the problem. supposedly, 50 years ago one (average) wage earner could support a family of four and have money left over to save. americans are working as hard as ever and yet our paychecks are not covering the bare necessities, hence the need for massive amounts of credit. when this goes on for long enough, however, people simply will not be able to repay the money, and there will be big losses. IMO, the reason are paychecks are shrinking is because the profits of workers' labors are being disproportionately accumulated by those at the top.
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StefanX Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. That's a very interesting perspective
I've been trying to study this stuff a lot and I never came across this idea before -- that low wages made it necessary for people to seek money elsewhere -- ie credit (or what some people used it for, flipping houses).

This makes sense and it may tie in with another, similar explanation -- that the motor of America's economy, instead of being jobs and productivity, became speculating on houses.

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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
12. Listen to George here
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