Scientists: Even Bigger Quake Could Hit Midwest

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080418/sc_livescience/scientistsevenbiggerquakecouldhitmidwest

The magnitude 5.2 earthquake that rocked the Midwest on Friday was felt from Kansas to Georgia, and aftershocks could continue for months at this strange seismic zone at the nation's center and even trigger another big quake, a geophysicist said.

The quake occurred on a northern extension of the New Madrid fault, about 6 miles north of Mt. Carmel, Ill. The New Madrid fault was responsible for devastating quakes in the Mississippi Valley in 1811 and 1812. So the Friday quake and its aftershocks likely are raising the blood pressure of some residents and scientists.

For decades, scientists have debated whether and when the underlying fault could generate another temblor of similar and deadly strength.

"I think we saw a window to this possibility today in the Wabash Valley," said geophysicist Allessandro Forte of the Universite du Quebec à Montreal, who has studied the region's seismicity. "It's to the north of the New Madrid seismic zone, but given the strength of crust, the stress can be distributed great distances. It's not clear if we could see something in the next few years or even next few months, I would say."
more...

The preliminary results are sobering, said Rogers. Data indicates ground shaking would be magnified about 600 percent within the flood plain of the Missouri River, a development that would cause most of Missouri's existing long-span bridges to collapse.

"You don't even need a really big earthquake to do significant damage in Missouri," Rogers says. "It could happen tomorrow."

Frankly I'm a bit worried I have family in St Lou and they had another Aftershock this morning at like 12:00 this morning

The recent activity has just made people look at it closer again. Every time there's an earthquake like this (like in 2002), a lot of noise is made. This is not a bad thing, since most in the midwest do not think of themselves as in an earthquake zone.

However, the fact that there are continuing, large (~4 magnitude) aftershocks days later should indicate that the fault has successfully relieved some of the stress on it and is just sliding into a new position. It would be of far more concern if the fault is completely quiet for, say, 10 years, building up pressure.

The potential damage of a full New Madrid quake as presented in the article is correct, however. It would likely shift the course of the Mississippi, as well, from what I've read elsewhere.

I was just talking to hubby about it this morning. Maybe we just didn't feel them last time, or maybe it wasn't in the media as much, but either way this is different this time.

New Madrid has a huge capacity to wreck havoc if it lets go suddenly, and there are several reasons why that conventional wisdom is there. This geologic structure here sounds like it is different than what they see in other earthquake prone areas, and that should creep everybody out. Based on what they reported with the last really BIG New Madrid events back in the 1800's the entire east half of the US could feel it. Experts are pretty clear that they think St Louis and Memphis will be hit hard, but there isn't a huge amount of discussion about the rest of the region. This area is WAY more populated now than it was in the 1800's, and there are any number of homes that could be left a heap of rubble that were not in place last time.

Now add in the destruction of the highway bridges and the existing transport system...

IF you though FEMA screwed up NOLA, just wait until you get a look at how they deal with devastation across a third of the nation (which is what one estimate I saw was theorizing.) No shelter, no water, no food and no way to get in to evac or even triage the damage...

Can you say well and truly screwn?



Laura

infrastructure since last week's quake?

Kinghighway

Hell will pop if another bridge collapses under Bushco.

St Louis will be wiped out. The southern half of Missouri will be wiped out. Those dams - Bagnell and Truman - will burst. MO will be underwater. :scared:

Several years ago I knew a guy that was doing a post doc in engineering. His focus was on earthquake engineering, and he was most emphatic that his opinion was that Memphis could not withstand any sort of serious earthquake.

He also pointed out that Mud Island (that is over 50 acres of Memphis attractions, remember) would be just gone because of the subsoil it sits on. The total dollar value of the destruction with a big New Madrid quake is incalculable.

He agreed with your opinion of Bagnell Dam, btw.



Laura

I live in KC and they say we will feel it here for sure. Probably won't wipe us out but we will have significant damage.

They just don't know.

No sense worrying about it.