Free Investment Advice Here

Free investment advice

Horse racing is as good an investment as almost any equity position on Wall Street. In some ways it is even better regulated. This Saturday marks "amateur day" at the races as millions of otherwise informed young men and women and even more not so young men and women try to pick who will win the "Big Race". The First Saturday in May is always exciting. Unless you live at extreme altitudes then the flowers are beginning to bloom, cherry blossoms already falling in our Nation's Capital. But the eyes of the Nation, and yes, the eyes of the world will be on a mid-sized city in Kentucky.

The big races start on Friday with the "Kentucky Oaks" for 3 year old Fillies at a mile and an eighth. As of right now there is a 60% chance of rain and that is important. The favorite on the board is the 5/2 odds granddaughter of Unbridled who is named "Eight Belles" in Post Position 12 (Program #12). We know from our horse racing history (also known as Past Performances, which are far more fun to read than 10Q's and a 10K), Unbridled never cared much for the wet going. If the track comes up with any moisture in it then Eight Belles is not worth wagering on unless the odds are over 15-1. Toss if wet. Same with "Elusive Lady" breaking from the 4 hole (Program #4).

An interesting horse to look at is Bsharpsonata, Post Position 10 (Program #10). Morning Line is 6-1 and if the track is wet then this girl should be up high on your list. The only other horse to have run on an off track is leaving from the 8 slot (Program #8), "Proud Spell" and she did OK. My professional opinion is that she is about 1/2 second slower than the winner. Another slop runner was (Program #7) "Little Belle". She won one and was closing in the other. She won't be on top but she might pick up a check.

Last year "Rags to Riches" was dominant in this race. And then she won the Belmont Stakes. That is one fine Filly. This race may not be won by a horse as powerful and exciting as Rags to Riches is but it will probably be won in the same manner. One of these Fillies will break loose at the quarter pole and prove herself the best today. But which one?

First, who we don't like. "Absolutely Cindy" (Program #2) was a good bet in the Battaglia but not since then. "Little Belle" (Program #7) could possibly pick up a piece of the pie but unlikely for the top spot. I hate to say this because I once liked her but "A to the Croft" (Program #9) is also a toss. But I think I would like to own one of her babies.

Here's my rundown and my wagering strategy for the Kentucky Oaks:

1) Golden Doc A - Has never been the distance but she DEFINITELY is worth considering. She could do it. Morning Line = 12/1
2) Absolutely Cindy - Pass
3) Awesome Chic - She is not working well and I'm going to pass.
4) Elusive Lady - An Unbridled horse and if it's wet, I pass.
5) Rasierra - No shocker here, at 50-1 is WELL worth a Show wager. Finishes well and shows a bullet 46 and 3 at CD.
6) Country Star - Is at 4-1 and that could be a bargain. My question is will she like the hard dirt under her hooves? I say no.
7) Little Belle - Although well spotted at 8-1, I don't think she is fast enough to finish on top.
8) Proud Spell - 7/2 and I think Gone West is better perceived than he really is.
9) A to the Croft - Bummer, toss.
10) Bsharpsonata - Must play especially if wet.
11) Pure Clan - Shows the kind of running style that could win this race and at 6-1 is worth a long look at.
12) Eight Belles - at 5/2 just isn't worth it especially if wet.

Going to place a position of $112 on this, the safe opportunity.

$20 Place and Show - #5 Raiserra
$20 Win and Place - #10 Bsharpsonata

$1 Exacta box (1,6,10,11)
$1 Exacta Key Box (5 with 1,6,10,11)

$1 Trifecta Key (10 with 1,5,6,11),

Now to try and hit the Jackpot for $120

$1 Superfecta Box (1,5,6,10,11)

The only problem may be that if the track is muddy or sloppy, with this quality of a field, you may find a mudder that no one ever knew was a mudder.

This is a high stakes race and every jockey wants to win. That's about the only time I'll play the horses. On any other regular day, I'll pass on the horses and play the dogs because the dogs don't have a human on them that's been told who's going to win. Seen it happen way to many times. Sounds like you know your horses, so you've probably seen it too.

Only the Fillies that ran in the mud before and did fairly well were at or near the lead. Bsharpsonata died in the stretch, Proud Belle and Little Spell finished 1-2 followed by Pure Clan and Golden Doc A. From a handicapping standpoint I thought I did pretty well but from a wagering standpoint I shot my wad. Tomorrows another day, check back for the Derby picks.

I liked that statement, and oh yes, I've seen it happen. With these Grade I Black Type Stakes races though, it's very rare to see a horse and jock not give their best effort and that dces make these races the best to play. I've never bet on the dogs before but I've watched a couple of races.

Cool screen name - you don't work for Treasury by any chance, do you? I did for a few years in the 90's.