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I never fully appreciated until I got into the industry myself, what a volatile business it could be.
DainBramaged, I don't have any cold hard facts or numbers, but I do remember in 1959 when my father, an accountant, came home from work one day and said that everyone except him had been laid off in the accounting dept that day, due to tough business conditions.
The first Arab oil embargo occurred around 1973, so oil prices rose and the oil industry was the place to be. Things began slowing down after a few years of heady prices, and when I hired on with one of the majors in 1982, I was low-man-on-the-totem-pole for about two years, before they began hiring again. Then in 1985 or 1986, my company offered its first-ever buy-out of employees, trying to pare down the work force as a way of shoring up the bottom line. It's economic Darwinism--businesses, like organisms, want to survive. I think we went through another round of layoffs around 1991.
So, you see just from my short experience how many ups-and-downs there have been. I do believe that the "return on capital employed" in the oil companies is around 12%, compared to around 18% for the pharmaceutical companies.
The oil industry is a risky business, where you may not begin seeing returns on your investment for 10 years or more. High oil prices spur exploration, BUT a very large factor in finding new oil lies in developing new technology to "see" where the oil may lie. Finding oil is an expensive, as well as risky, business.
Personally, I have always felt that gasoline should be taxed more highly, and those extra taxes should be used to create something like the original NASA, devoted solely to finding viable alternatives to fossil fuels. The first company that comes up with viable alternate fuel and/or viable alternate power mechanisms (for cars, planes, rockets, utilities) will be in the catbird's seat. I'd kinda like it to be an American company.
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