2010 $200 a barrel $7.00 a gallon

Woman financial analyst on MSNBC.

Her own personal wild ass guess?

Because if she were to actually look current conditions she could not possible come to that conclusion unless she was an idiot.

and now we have gained 30% in six months.

So at that rate, we should hit $170 by the election, $220/bbl by this time next year, assuming no attack on Iran and no withdrawal from Iraq.

That means an average $7.33 cents a gallon gas including tax this time next year, at current rates. Or, $5.67 a gallon by the November elections.

I expect it to be around $250/bbl by this time next year, and unless people radically change their driving habits the price per gallon will be $8.00 on average and closer to $9.00 in Cali.

Mine was a very primitive, trend based calc.

Not factored in were things like the continuing collapse of the dollar.

that headed the taxpayer funded report for the Dept. of Energy was on CNBC last week predicting $12-$14 / gallon and then shortages.

Here is a link to the interview and a pdf of the Hirsh report.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019




I'll bet the woman analyst you saw was Meridith Whitney who (correctly) warned about the credit/subprime crisis.

Is he talking about next year or 10 years from now?

Not in the interview but here is a section from his 2005 report which laysout possibilities (bolding mine)


Risk Management
It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is
also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know
for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk
management problem. On the one hand, if peaking is decades away, massive
mitigation initiated soon would be premature. On the other hand, if peaking
is imminent, failure to quickly initiate mitigation will impose large near-
term economic and social costs on the world.
The two risks are asymmetric:
• Mitigation initiated prematurely would result in a relatively modest
misallocation of resources.
• Failure to initiate timely mitigation with an appropriate lead-time is
certain to result in very severe economic consequences.
The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization
requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking.
The world is faced Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-
with a daunting risk makers is indeed vexing. Mustering support for an invisible disaster is much
management problem. more difficult than for one that is obvious to all.
Concluding Remarks
Over the past century, world economic development has been
fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Previous
energy transitions (wood to coal, coal to oil, etc.) were gradual and
evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive
mitigation at least a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive
and long lasting.
Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an “energy crisis” in
the sense that term has been used. Accordingly, mitigation of declining
world oil production must be narrowly focused, at least in the near-term.
A number of technologies are currently available for immediate
implementation once there is the requisite determination to act.
Governments worldwide will have to take the initiative on a timely basis,
and it may already be too late to avoid considerable discomfort or worse.
Countries that dawdle will suffer from lost opportunities, because in every
crisis, there are always opportunities for those that act decisively.



Table 1: Projections of the Peaking of World Oil Production
Projected Date Source of Projection Background & Reference
Oil Executive (Iran)1
2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S.
2
2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment banker (U.S.)
3
After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal editor (U.K.)
Oil company geologist (ret., U.S.)4
Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S.
5
Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech (U.S.)
Oil geologist (ret., Ireland)6
Around 2010 Campbell, C.J.
World Non-Government Org.7
After 2010 World Energy Council
Petroleum Executive (China)8
2012 Pang Xiongqi
9
2010-2020 Laherrere, J. Oil geologist (ret., France)
DOE analysis/ information (U.S.)10
2016 EIA nominal case
11
After 2020 CERA Energy consultants (U.S.)
12
2025 or later Shell Major oil company (U.K.)
1
Bakhtiari, A.M.S. World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07. Oil and Gas Journal. April 26,
2004.
2
Simmons, M.R. ASPO Workshop. May 26, 2003.
3
Skrebowski, C. Oil Field Mega Projects - 2004. Petroleum Review. January 2004.
4
Deffeyes, K.S. Hubbert’s Peak-The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press. 2003.
5
Goodstein, D. Out of Gas – The End of the Age of Oil. W.W. Norton. 2004
6
Campbell, C.J. Industry Urged to Watch for Regular Oil Production Peaks, Depletion Signals. Oil and Gas Journal.. July 14,
2003.
7
Drivers of the Energy Scene. World Energy Council. 2003.
8
Pang Xiongqi. The Challenges Brought by Shortages of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures. ASPO Lisbon
Conference. May19-20, 2005.
9
Laherrere, J. Seminar Center of Energy Conversion. Zurich. May 7, 2003
10
DOE EIA. Long Term World Oil Supply. April 18, 2000. See Appendix I for discussion.
11
Jackson, P. et al. Triple Witching Hour for Oil Arrives Early in 2004 – But, As Yet, No Real Witches. CERA Alert. April 7,
2004.
12
Davis, G. Meeting Future Energy Needs. The Bridge. National Academies Press. Summer 2003.


http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf

We're being brainwashed.

if we all become accustomed to the idea, like the frog in water slowly coming to a boil, we will just sit there and do nothing.

Let me guess, most people are allready just sitting desensitized and doing nothing - except whining about rising price.

Projections project, nothing more, nothing less, and for years those projecting higher oil prices have been constantly right and those projecting lower prices constantly wrong. Empirical evidence is on the side of peakoilers, not on the side of cornucopians.

Those of us who accept that a limited resource is indeed limited are more likely to do something usefull than those still living in a cornucopian dreamworld, whining about reality disturbing their beautifull dream.

We are in peak oil, no doubt. We desperately need to change our ways--something I began to do a decade ago (drive a 10 yo high mileage car only to and from work--walk EVERYWHERE else).

However right now the speculators are driving the price up well BEYOND the effect of supply and demand. That's the rub. The peak of oil is here, but the Oil barons are not about to let that happen without squeezing maximum profits from all of us for the last drops--profits well above what is increasingly becoming a significant DROP in demand.

You quickly read my post and apparently took from it a very very simplistic interpretation. I hope you will re-read and realize we are not at cross purposes.

Squeezing maximum profits is just standard capitalism and happening as predicted, blaming "Oil Barons" (such as pension funds and other big investors in the future market) without blaming the whole system that makes and guides them is IMHO much too fluffy and simplistic scapegoating.

at the expense of the population as a whole (and particularly those in 3rd world countries who may starve as a result) deserve every bit of blame we can direct their way. You may have a soft spot for those who profit beyond all bounds at the expense or harm to others, but I DO NOT.

To be rich when others starve is literally a mortal sin, but who am I to throw the first stone? I just emphasize the problem is systemic, not individual. Greedy me'ism is collective culturally conditioned mental disorder, not first and foremost individual... hence individuals can cure themselves from the mental disorder (at least to some degree) by understanding its causes :-)

I don't know what their more recent estimates have been.

Hirsch doesn't say when it will reach those prices,
he doesn't say if it will be 2010 or 2020 or 2030 or 2100 or 2200 or 3000 or 10000.
Without a date, it's a useless prediction.

I've also heard analysts on MSNBC say that they believe that these oil prices will subside eventually, probably down to around $60 or $70 per barrel.

are MAJOR suppliers of oil. The easy oil has been tapped.

Are you planning on not driving?

Demand is still leading supply. And the only way to change that is to use less, because we cannot increase supply significantly in terms of global demand.

The only way to get it down is for everyone who doesnt have to drive, not driving.

We have only cut 4% of our automobile usage so far this year.

You would have to have job that pays to $20.00 an hour minimum to even get by (BARELY). It is my view that the US public can not continue with $7.00 a gallon gas. People will not be able to afford to go to work.

Side note: Remember when Blackwater was spouting off about the cities of America becoming corrals for the underclass while they become the protection for the elites who will move to their new rural sanctuaries?

Those who know better ("hippies") have been starting "rural sanctuaries" - ecovillages.

Those who know only greed have been buying land. When Mexicans stop coming, those who refused to know end up slaves in the labor camps of those who know only greed - if they are able bodied.

..... Why would someone at a minimum-wage job even bother going to work at $7 pg?

out of our communities. None of that money will ever get put back into roads or rail or any other mass transit, states will have to raise taxes and/or face tax payer revolts - and if one solution is to privatize our roads, what a victory for the uber rich, and again the public gets screwed.